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John of the West's avatar

I don’t think civil war is going to take the low level form everyone thinks it is. Immigration to our time is what slavery was to the antebellum south. The reason that slavery was such a critical issue to the South was because the entire economy was basically built around it. By the 1850s, there were plenty of slave owners whose wealth was tied up in their slaves, but they could not convert those slaves to other assets. In other words, they were stuck with their slaves even though they wanted to get out of the slave owning business and invest their money elsewhere. Other people in the south still embraced slavery because they saw it as a means of status, economic and political mobility, etc.

The anti-slavery side was highly ideological in nature, but also had their own economic reasons for wanting to abolish slavery.

Immigration is sort of in the same shape right now. You have too many people who have too much of a stake in it to be able to drop their support for it. It’s political, economic, and ideological. Like slavery, many people benefit far too much from it right now to fix it even if they could. Politicians see it as a source of votes and a political weapon. Businesses see it as a source of cheap labor - and I mean legal immigration from India as well. Ideologues see it as core to their thinking of wishing to destroy the country as we know it and reshape it into something else.

On the other side, you have people on the anti-immigration side who have a mirror image of those points. Right wing politicians see it as changing the voting makeup. The average person see it as driving them out of decent jobs and taking away opportunities for their children. And then there is the “great replacement” which speaks for itself.

So, like slavery, it is an impasse. Too many people have too much invested in it to reach a compromise now. Now, none of that matters until it becomes an issue of sovereignty. Sanctuary cities have long flirted with the idea of telling the federal government to go to hell, but those were never really challenged with a direct show of force. If the current administration efforts ARE met with a show of force by calling out the national guard or police forces (some of which are very well armed), citizen “volunteers,” etc, then we have a whole different ball game. It then comes down to who is willing the fire a first shot and does so.

Fort Sumter was a basic argument over sovereignty. If a federal installation was sitting in the harbor of a seceding state, it meant that the state was not really sovereign. It would be like China setting up a military base in Alcatraz. Whether or not federal troops can enforce federal law is going to be a turning point in immigration as well. People have spoken of secession in left leaning states for a long time, is this going to be the thing that finally pushes them towards it?

I hadn’t looked at the news in the last day or so, but when I woke up and saw the news about LA, it was an oh shit moment. I think we may be a lot closer than anyone thinks to civil war.

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CG Braswell's avatar

I WAS surprised when he didn’t send in the national guard to immediately straighten out the summer of Floyd Kent state style.

I will NOT be surprised if he doesn’t act again. In fact, if he doesn’t shut that crap down decisively this time, you won’t be able to convince me that the omission wasn’t a one of the requirements for him to be appointed again.

I’m not saying that situation in 1970 was ideal but it did unify the right. It was ugly but it has since become obvious that the counterculture left was all totally infiltrated Comintern mkultra (right in historical step with Mao’s cultural revolution) by that time, and it STILL IS.

I am a Hunter Thompson acolyte but the Nixon administration looks like the Nativity compared to the contemporary Imperial Vichy District of Columbia.

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