"Porch Piracy": A Crime Against All

This means, eventually, the vast majority of Americans will become victims of theft not once, but at least a few times in their lives.

As we’re now smack-dab in the middle of the 2024 holiday season, it’s time to talk about something I’ve never spoken about before specifically, but has become a highly prevalent social problem: package theft.

I came across this report from the website Security.org, which provides a detailed overview of the phenomenon. It’s an excellent report, full of fascinating facts, so I hope you’ll read it in its entirety. For now, we’ll hit what I deem to be its most important points.

The report’s author, security expert Matthew Adkins, begins:

Online purchases generate about 22 billion packages each year, more than 60 for every person! However, not all reach their intended destination. Package thieves – known colloquially as “porch pirates” – steal many deliveries right from our doorsteps and yards.

Though stricter laws and security precautions offer some consumer protections, criminals still grab millions of boxes worth billions of dollars, disrupting lives and festive gift-giving occasions like Christmas and Hanukkah.

Adkins later notes that 99 percent Americans shop online at least a few times a year, a remarkable shift in commerce during our lifetimes. Anyone old enough to remember knows what a task it was to place an order during the pre-Internet era: you had to request a catalog, call then speak to a live salesperson who’d take your order. Either that, or you mailed in the order, meaning you could be waiting weeks on end for your item to arrive. Otherwise, you needed to physically shop around until you found your item. Many of us order clothes online nowadays, but this was virtually unheard of as a practice until around 20 years ago. Who’d buy clothes without trying them on first, anyway?

Nowadays, it’s just a few clicks and your order is in, often arriving within just a few days. Product availability and selection is greater than ever before, with literally anything and everything able to found somewhere out there on the Internet. Finally, you can keep close track of your order like never before, so unless stolen, there’s practically no such thing as an item getting “lost” in the sense nobody knows what happened to it. The downside coming alongside the convenience of “e-commerce” is that your items are probably more vulnerable to theft than ever before.

A graphic from the report offers these eye-popping statistics behind package theft, a.k.a. “porch piracy”:

Source

These numbers are staggering. 58 million out of a population of 330 million is roughly 17.5 percent of the population, meaning that many people are going to have their packages stolen in a single year. To comprehend the magnitude of the problem, consider that not only are a similar number of Americans having their stuff stolen annually, but that online shopping has become a prime mode of shopping. This means, eventually, the vast majority of Americans will become victims of theft not once, but at least a few times in their lives.

Just how prevalent is theft? Adkins writes [bold mine]:

Our research revealed that one-quarter of American adults have had a package stolen, and four percent (14 million people) suffered a theft within the last three months. The average value of each stolen parcel was $204, meaning nearly $3 billion in e-commerce merchandise was swiped over this past summer.

Those findings project staggering national theft numbers for the year—which could be even higher, given the elevated shipping volumes of the holidays and incidences of multi-package heists.

I’ve discussed crime statistics on multiple occasions on this Substack - crime is much lower today than it was 30 years ago. However, back then, theft was something that happened because you were robbed out in public or your residence was broken into. Nowadays, you can become a victim of theft just by having a delivery made to your home. As is so often the case, we’re contending with two seemingly contradictory realities at once: we’re living in a safer society today than we once were, yet our risk of becoming victims of theft is higher than before. Put differently, there are fewer thieves in 2024 than there were in 1994, yet the fewer thieves today have more opportunities to steal than they did yesterday.

I was surprised to learn that the average value of the stolen packages was $204. Maybe it’s because I seldom purchase anything that expensive, and because the packages I’ve had stolen from me were often of lesser value, but it does suggest thieves do follow a certain logic in that they’re not just swiping anything they can get their hands on, something Adkins surmises later in his report. They may in fact be targeting high-value items, or at least what appear to be high-value items.

It doesn’t surprise me, however, that the estimated total loss incurred by theft comes out to $12 billion, given the prevalence of theft alone. Some of this is arguably due to inflation, but $12 billion is still a massive chunk of change, either way. By comparison, the Department of State, responsible for representing America globally, has an annual budget of $16.39 billion. If the State Department lost $12 billion, it’d cease to function.

The report goes on to say that package theft is a major concern among Americans, a concern validated by data. In fact, it’s the one crime all of us are at risk of, so it should be at or near the top of any risk assessment we conduct for ourselves. If you’re more worried about collapse than you are theft, you’re doing it very, very, wrong.

A big part of the reason why we’re all universally at risk of theft is because it doesn’t fit into conventional patterns of crime:

Package theft tends to be a crime of opportunity rather than a reflection of localized lawlessness. Where parcels are numerous, unguarded, or exposed, incidents of piracy are likely to be higher regardless of overall crime rates.

Accordingly, states with the most package theft don’t mirror those with the highest property crime rates. The unique nature of the crime also underscores the need for parcel precautions even in otherwise safe areas.

In other words, you could live in a safe area and still become a victim of theft. You see this dynamic globally as well: even in the world’s safest countries, like South Korea, petty theft and pickpocketing is the one crime that always seems to exist.

The term “porch piracy” serves as an alternative to “package theft,” but apartment-dwellers are, perhaps unsurprisingly, at greater risk of theft than those of other residence types:

This is one area where perception isn’t reality. Most doorbell camera videos of package theft take place at houses, but the data clearly shows that apartments are where the crime is most likely to occur. The disparity between perception and reality is served probably by the fact apartment-dwellers are less likely to have doorbell cameras or any kind of security monitoring system installed, since they don’t own the property. Apparently, one’s house can indeed be one’s castle!

As with all things in American life, there exists a racial disparity in terms of who is victimized more, but there’s a very simple explanation for this which doesn’t involve racism:

Our survey also found that people of color (those who identified as Asian, Black, mixed, or other) experienced package theft more than twice as often as white people (seven percent versus three percent). Since porch pirates rarely interact with victims, this difference likely reflects the higher number of non-white residents in dense urban areas rather than bias in targeting.

Package theft is the one crime that doesn’t discriminate, period. I can understand why most of us, including myself, aren’t worried about being held up in an armed robbery, but we should consider package theft an ever-present danger. And yes, it’s a danger - all crimes come with a potential for violence. Regardless, it’s a violation of one’s self - nobody is entitled to anyone else’s property. Sometimes, you can get your money back. Sometimes, you can’t. Either way, nobody’s entitled to anyone else’s property, whether they’re rich or poor and our society should have zero tolerance for anyone who tries to equivocate. A society where people take from each other at will is no society at all.

We’re all aware the problem; what’s the solution? The report contains a list of the measures taken by Americans to prevent theft. Surprisingly, the most common measure taken was to schedule shipments to be delivered only when someone is home. I found this surprising because I’ve found working hours makes it difficult to schedule deliveries for specific time-frames. Everyone leads different life routines, but personally, this would be something difficult for me to manage. Apparently, it’s not for almost half of Americans.

The second most common solution was, unsurprisingly, doorbell cameras. I don’t want to get into too deep a conversation on the pros and cons of doorbell cameras, or any security camera, for that matter, but it’s increasingly becoming a must-have piece of equipment for residents in today’s world. I’ve found that it doesn’t serve as the most effective deterrent, since thieves can just obscure their faces, leading them to never be found in some cases. Still, doorbell cameras are a relatively cost-effective form of security and is one of those solutions which are better than nothing at all.

Whatever you decide, please don’t be like the 14 percent of Americans who apparently do nothing to secure their homes and belongings:

Interestingly, 14 percent of people don’t do anything to defend themselves against package theft. But perhaps even more alarming is the number of Americans who fail to basically secure their homes. Forty-two percent said they sometimes leave doors unlocked at home, and 15 percent admitted doing the same even when they are away. When packages are luring criminals right up to front doors, it’s prudent to ensure that measures are in place to prevent them from venturing further.

We can wish all we want to live in a world where we can live with our doors unlocked, our property unsecured. It’s quite another to live in that imaginary world. We’re preppers, so we don’t do that: secure your s**t!

I hope you’ll take the time to read the entire report, along with the recommendations made by Adkins, all of which are very good. I do want to offer a few of my own:

• Have deliveries made to your workplace: As long as your employer doesn’t have an issue with you receiving personal items at work, consider this as an option. I noted earlier that scheduling deliveries for times when you’re at home can be a challenge, so having it delivered to your workplace might be a suitable alternative. Bear in mind, however: if your employer sorts its own mail, you may need to consider someone else will be putting hands on your deliveries in the interim. In addition, don’t make a habit of having regular deliveries of personal items made to your workplace. The idea is to simply get important deliveries made as directly to you as possible.

• Know your neighbors: Adkins talks in the report about getting your neighbors involved in securing your packages, which begins with getting to know your neighbors in the first place. It’s a lot easier to make this ask of them when you do, and strong communities are the best deterrent against crime. Having good relations with your neighbors also means they’re going to be more forthcoming to assist when a crime does occur. During the Fourth Turning, getting along with your neighbors will become all too apparent once again. I realize it’s not easy getting to know your neighbors, but even knowing just one of our neighbors can make a big difference. If you live in a rental property, having a good relationship with your landlord or property manager is a must.

• In the event of theft, always get police involved: No, you don’t need to call 911 over a stolen package, unless it involved a physical altercation as well or you got a positive identification on the thief. Even in the instance of the latter, understand that calling 911 won’t guarantee they’ll be caught. However, don’t not report the incident at all, either. At the very least, police should be made aware thefts are occurring in your area. There’s only so many officers and resources they can devote to any one crime, and thievery is something that can only be stopped through pro-active measures, or what law enforcement calls “anti-crime.” For them to take action, they need to see data showing where and how many incidents are occurring. These days, you can easily submit a report online. Do it.

• Be aware of what’s going on in your neighborhood: One of the easiest ways to do this is through the NextDoor app. It has a mixed reputation, but I consider it among the most useful apps. You’d be surprised to see how much actually goes on where you live. I see reports of thefts occurring daily, accompanied by images from home security cameras, all not too far from where I live. These aren’t “bad” neighborhoods either, proving that theft is a crime we are all subject to the risk of. Stay engaged on NextDoor and report your own incidents, should they occur, while also taking any appropriate steps you deem fit to protect your privacy.

Finally, be very, very careful about taking retaliatory action against thieves. I don’t judge anyone for doing so and I certainly harbor no sympathy for thieves. However, we live in an anarcho-tyranny; you can be held liable for any actions taken against the thieves.

I strongly advise against directly confronting thieves, but I also advise against booby-trapping “honeypot” packages to teach them a lesson:

Here’s a long compilation of package thieves getting their commupance:

Again, I take as much pleasure as the next person in watching this, but taking escalatory measures is always a roll of the dice. If you do something like this to the wrong person, they may choose to further escalate the situation. If the police get involved, activist district attorneys may file charges against you. I hate the political order we live under, but minimizing risk to yourself should always be your prime consideration.

We all want to have an enjoyable holiday season, but it’s often during times like these that trouble finds us. Maintain your alert status and be a bit more vigilant during times of high activity, such as the holiday season. Minimizing risk to yourself will allow you to focus on what’s most important: enjoying time with loved ones and giving thanks to the highest of powers.

What about you? Have you ever been a victim of package theft? What measures do you take to secure your orders? Is there anything in the cited report that surprises you?

Talk about it in the comments section.

Max Remington writes about armed conflict and prepping. Follow him on Twitter at @AgentMax90.

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