"The most important elections of our lifetimes." This time, it's for real.

In 2009, it could be seen rather clearly that the 2024 and 2028 elections would be among the most consequential of our lifetimes.

In 2009, geopolitical analyst and forecaster George Friedman authored The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. As the title suggests, Friedman shared his predictions for what would happen throughout the remainder of the 21st century and just beyond. One of his predictions concerns the 2024 and 2028 elections:

Whoever is elected president in 2024 or 2028 will face a remarkable problem. Like Adams, Grant, Hoover, and Carter, this president will be using the last period’s solutions to solve the new problem. Just as Carter tried to use Roosevelt’s principles to solve stagflation, making the situation worse, the final president in this period will use Reagan’s solution, fielding a tax cut for the wealthy to generate investment. Tax cuts will increase investment at a time when labor shortages are most intense, further increasing the price of labor and exacerbating the cycle.

In 2009, it could be seen rather clearly that the 2024 and 2028 elections would be among the most consequential of our lifetimes. The reasoning comes down to demographics - by the middle of this decade, a tremendous percentage of the Baby Boomer generation will have retired or be in the process of retiring. Given their sheer size, they’ll leave behind massive gaps in the workforce, among other consequences.

As seen in this graph, the U.S. isn’t exactly an aging population in the academic sense, circa 2020. Unlike many European countries, which have a significant elderly “bulge” or rapidly aging populations, America’s bulge is roughly centralized. This is due to the fact the “Boomers,” who constitute the largest of the existing cohorts today, also bore lots of children, so the age distribution is more balanced. 18-44-year-olds, those just entering the workforce or in the prime of their working years, comprise 35.6% of the population. Also, the median age in the U.S. is 38.5, whereas Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has a median age almost ten years higher. Favorable demographics is another area which makes America an outlier in the developed world.

Things become problematic when you realize that, by the end of this year, the youngest Millennial will have been alive for a quarter-century. This means the generation largely expected to fill the shoes of the Boomers (you’re absolved of this burden, Gen. X!) is already in their prime working years. This, in turn, means any additional labor shortages caused by Boomer retirements will need to be filled by Generation Z, just now entering working years. But Generation Z is even smaller, meaning there will continue to exist a labor shortfall, as the oldest “zoomer,” as they’re called, is now at least a few years into working age. To use a sports analogy, the “farm system” isn’t quite as deep as it used to be.

There’s another problem: Americans, along with almost the entire developed world, have all but given up on reproducing:

The key metric here is “TFR fcast,” or “Total Fertility Rate forecast.” TFR measures how many children a woman bears on average over her lifetime. This is, of course, an average, meaning a TFR of 3.00 doesn’t literally mean every woman bears three children over her lifetime.

All other variables holding equal, if present trend lines hold, a country needs a TFR of 2.1 for the population to remain constant in a given year. That said, look at the charts again and notice what the TFR fcast for the First World is. Not one is anywhere close to that 2.1 mark, with the U.S. at 1.59.

The official U.S. population (not counting illegal residents) has grown constantly for over 70 years, but the growth rate has slowed, in large part due to a steady TFR decline. As far back as 2014, birth rates reached an all-time low, a phenomenon associated with the Great Recession of the late-2000s. Given that Millennial women are either in their child-bearing years or fast approaching the end of their child-bearing window and, yet, the TFR continues to decline, there’s no reason to expect the trend to reverse itself. It’s also unlikely zoomers will pick up the slack, as they’ll be subject to a culture, economy, and overall society that deters or outright discourages child-bearing. The forces that influenced Millennials to not have children are likely to intensify over the 2020s, especially if another recession strikes, which it undoubtedly will.

This brings up the topic of immigration. In The Next 100 Years, Friedman posited that countries experiencing labor shortages would seek to bring a wave of immigrants aboard in the 2030s to resolve the labor shortage. The problem with immigration, of course, is that the new arrivals would largely be those in their prime working years. Eventually, these people would start to age and contribute to the graying of the population. Another problem is that the majority of any large immigration wave would constitute lower-skilled migrants who would fill low-wage jobs.

The 2030s are too distant to see what the employment picture would look like, but present trend lines don’t bode well and inequality is likely to intensify in the U.S. Some jobs we grew up with may even be gone, permanently. One of the most compelling arguments against mass immigration, legal or illegal, is that it only increases the number of poor people in the country whose contributions to the economy ultimately amount to a flash in the pan.

There also exist serious cultural, political, and social ramifications of mass immigration, but the idea that immigration presents any sort of cure to our demographic problem fails to notice that economic tumult, which I see unfolding in the 2020s, may not even permit the arrival of large numbers of people.

I could continue burrowing deeper into the rabbit hole, but my point is that the 2024 and 2028 elections were destined to be consequential due to the aging of America. Every election is viewed as the “most important ever,” but, in the case of ‘24 and ‘28, it’s not hyperbole. As if the stakes weren’t high enough, the events of the past roughly two years has raised the stakes even higher and hyper-partisanship will make the next two elections even more fraught. The COVID lockdowns have created a supply chain crisis that shows no signs of abating. The “Great Resignation” has created a major labor shortage ahead of schedule and a myriad of other issues, including crime, energy costs, and overall inflation, is threatening to cause a major economic catastrophe likely this decade. There’s no telling what other events will occur between now and 2024 and between then and 2028. What is for certain, according to Peter Zeihan, also a geopolitical forecaster, is that the next two years alone will see the “greatest period of change” since the end of World War II.

Demographics is an arguably “un-sexy” topic of discussion, but there’s a reason analysts and scholars like Friedman and Zeihan constantly beat the drum about it. A society sustains itself through reproduction - again, to employ a sports analogy, not even the wealthiest team can sustain itself by signing top-tier free agents or making big trades. At some point, it needs to develop its own players to replace aging players or to serve as capital for acquiring other players. Unless we plan on importing the whole world, immigration isn’t a substitute for having babies. More important, it’s not about population size alone, but about achieving the optimal balance between old and young. It not only assures continuity, but maintains order and stability as well. Countries with major demographic imbalances are far more susceptible to chaos, disorder, and even war.

Unfortunately, history shows one does not simply resolve a demographic crisis. Part of the problem is that the consequences of an aging population don’t become readily apparent until its too late, to say nothing of the challenge of convincing millions to start families. In keeping with the title of this Substack, when it comes to demographics, America isn’t at the end, but it’s beginning to come into focus.

Max Remington writes about armed conflict and prepping. Follow him on Twitter at @AgentMax90.

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