The Shots 'Round The World
Trump dodged a bullet. And so did we. We were a single head-tilt away from living in a dramatically different timeline.
Yesterday, I was on the verge of completing and publishing a draft titled, “Grandpa, Why Did We Fight A Civil War?” when the news we’ve all heard about by now struck. I have to say, I wasn’t in a believing mood at first when I heard it from an X mutual. That all changed a few minutes later when I saw the footage of the latest shots heard ‘round the world:
Former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt, like it or not. It happened. It’s for real. I’m not going to do a forensic breakdown on the shooting (not now, anyway), but Trump was a wrong head-tilt away from death. Look at where the round struck him [WARNING: GRAPHIC]:
That’s how close Trump was to having a bullet enter the back of his head. You don’t shoot at someone unless you have the intention of killing them, but the fact that the shooter was aiming at his head makes it clear as day that instant death was their objective.
Amazingly, someone managed to capture a bullet whizzing towards Trump on camera, though I’m not sure this was the round which grazed him:
Bottom line: Trump dodged a bullet. And so did we. We were a single head-tilt away from living in a dramatically different timeline. If you ever needed proof that we’re living in extraordinary times, there you go. If you ever needed proof we’re always one tragedy away from it all drastically changing, there you also go. I hate to be so dramatic, since life often is so undramatic. But sometimes, the dramatic does happen.
As for Trump himself, he’s fine, and his spirits seem to be as up as ever:
He was later seen walking off his plane on his own power, even managed a wave to a camera. I’ve been critical of Trump and I’ve never shared the enthusiasm for him so many others on my side do. But I personally find it hard to dislike him now and I feel compelled to throw my support behind him. Not saying any of you need to, of course. But assassinations aren’t democracy. It’s what people do when they feel like there’s no stopping someone democratically. More on that in a bit. For now, it suffices to say that seeing Trump’s defiance on stage, despite nearly dying, and clearly fighting back tears, it was inspiring to see.
Even Trump’s ideological opponents had to confess:
What does it all mean? Are we headed towards the brink once more? Or is this a wake-up call that forces us all to realize it’s time to cool things off, mend fences, and find a way to come together? I don’t know, honestly. It’s still too early and we’re now entering something of a stalemate, where both sides are re-assessing the situation and figuring out a way forward.
It’s during times like these that misinformation reigns supreme. I’ve taken great pains to use this blog to clarify present events, not muddy the waters even more. That said, I’m still going to share my initial thoughts on this stunning turn of events and give you a sense of where I think events are headed. Just remember that there’s three-and-a-half months left to go before the election: if a week is a year in politics, then three-and-a-half months is an eternity. Something else can happen that can dramatically alter the timeline once more, and I wouldn’t be shocked, insane as it sounds now, that on Election Day, this assassination attempt is totally forgotten. It’s just the nature of the times we live in.
With that, here are my initial thoughts, all subject to change as events unfold.
The Left Will Attempt To De-Escalate Tensions. Then They’ll Ratchet Them Back Up.
The most disturbing aspect of the the assassination attempt, other than the attempt itself, is how some on the Left reacted to it. Many called it “staged,” which is ironic, since the Left is constantly tarring the Right as the side which indulges exclusively in conspiracy theories. It was never true, of course - the Left has their own array of conspiracy theories - but their reaction to this latest incident ought to lay to rest the false wisdom that only the Right indulges in them.
More troubling, many on the Left were genuinely thrilled by what took place.
shared this screencap of a text exchange with a friend who was vacationing in California [WARNING: HARSH LANGUAGE]:
I’ve seen people in my own social media circles, people I know personally, react similarly. Maybe I shouldn’t be surprised. After all, when you live in a hyper-partisan environment, where people take politics very personally, this is what they’ll inevitably do.
I have to wonder, though: do these people understand what an assassination of any presidential candidate would’ve done to this country? Or is this whole thing a joke to them? Either way, it’s a terrible look.
That said, I also sense a strange silence from the Left. I suppose you can call these people the more “reasonable” voices; I think they’re genuinely shocked at what took place and don’t know how to react. I don’t believe a lot of people, Left, Right, or normie, honestly believed things would get out of hand like they have.
As for the institutional Left, the Regime? They most definitely realize that things have gotten out of hand and are going to take steps to not only de-escalate tensions, but also re-frame the narrative in their favor. They’re currently scrambling to get out the message that they stand unequivocally against political violence, even though they’ve had a near-monopoly on it for the past several years, both in word and deed. The receipts are there, just look it up. Assassinating Trump is something the Left has talked about casually for years. It almost happened yesterday.
As for President Joe Biden, it’s worth noting he reacted late to the incident, with Independent Candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his running mate Nicole Shanahan commenting on it quicker than our president or anyone at the White House did. To Biden’s credit, his message was the appropriate one and it’s been reported that he spoke directly with Trump.
However, don’t expect this peaceful moment to last. As I said before, there’s still an election to win and the fact that Trump didn’t die means we’re going to get over this moment quicker than we should. I understand how grotesque that sounds, but that’s reality. I don’t make the rules. If you disagree, remember that the Left is on the defensive now. Somehow, they’re going to have to reconcile this moment, their presently peaceful tack, with everything they’ve said and done since 2016. Defensiveness often triggers even greater viciousness; like a cornered animal, the Left will lash out even more to prove to the world they’re not the bad guys.
As you might expect, the media took pains to be so factual as to distort what really happened and what was apparent to all:
And:
It led someone to joke about how CNN would’ve covered the Kennedy assassination:
The morning after, it’s no better.
, one of the few brave enough to still listen to NPR, summarized their coverage of the incident:The NPR coverage this morning of an assassination attempt is entirely about how hysterical Trump supporters’ responses are, how violent their past rhetoric has been, and how Trump will exploit this for electoral advantage. Truly incredible.
…
They keep commenting on how Trump will use this to portray himself as a victim. He *is,* literally, a victim. I don’t care how much you might despise Trump, this is about the English fucking language.
It appears the reality of the situation still hasn’t sunk in. I wonder if it ever will for these people. Like I said earlier, one inch was the distance between us and a catastrophically different timeline.
That all aside, this right here is the attitude I think most in the normie, institutional Left will roll forward with:
In other words, it’s never their fault. It’s always the Right’s fault. No introspection, no peace. My assessment is that the Left is either upset that it happened because it damages their narrative that the Right is a threat to democracy or they’re upset because Trump isn’t dead. Again, there’s plenty of receipts for both.
A month from now, expect the rhetoric to be as hot as it’s ever been.
The Risk of Civil War Went Up. But It’s Not Imminent, Either.
In other words, my prognosis of America’s future hasn’t changed much. I still maintain that a civil war isn’t going to start over politics - not entirely, anyway - and that many other things need to happen before civil war really enters the picture.
Another thing to remember is that a lot of people, mostly on my side, said that 2024 was going to be as crazy a year as 2020 was. That prediction hasn’t borne out. Why that is, I’m not going to speculate here (though readers should feel free to do so in the comments), but the fact is, the last four years have actually been pretty tranquil. Maybe people are just tired of it all, maybe 2020 really did empty everyone’s reservoir of outrage, I don’t know. But until we start seeing higher levels of political violence, I doubt we’re going to see a civil war.
Something I often mention is that violence in general exists only in the abstract to most Americans, even for those who own guns or a strong political partisans. Most of the people calling for violence, including those who called for Trump’s head, were always expecting someone else to do it. It’s cowardly and terrible either way, but until you have more people willing to throw themselves into the proverbial fire, you’re not going to see a civil war, let alone higher levels of political violence. Only the level of verbal nastiness will rise, though I also think we’ve exceeded the point of diminishing returns on that front, meaning violence is the next logical step.
So while I’m going to rule out a civil war for now, there’s no reason to think a “quasi-civil war” couldn’t have become more likely within the next year. The United States is headed for a very bad place either way and a serious economic or political crisis can create conditions for civil unrest. Again, it may not be the “big one,” but it can be something which drastically changes the internal environment of the country. 2020 was a warning of just how quickly order can become undone under the right circumstances.
Don’t take it from me. Take it from Ray Dalio, billionaire investor and geopolitical analyst, who said just this year:
I think the risk of some form of civil war is uncomfortably more than 50 percent, and I am confident that in the next year we will know the answer to whether we will cross the brink.
Assassinations Are Troubling. But They’re Not Back. Yet.
Part of the reason yesterday’s events were so jarring is because assassinations have become extremely rare in American politics. Yes, there were the attempted assassinations of Congressmen Steve Scalise in 2017 and Gabby Giffords back in 2011. But the last time a president, current or former, experienced an attempt on his life was in 1981, when Ronald Reagan was shot and survived. You also need to go back to 1972, when George Wallace was shot on the campaign trail, for the last time a presidential candidate was targeted.
Why have assassinations become so rare? This is yet another topic that deserves its own treatment.
took a shot at it (no pun intended) and I advise you read it when you have time. I’ll summarize it by saying that assassinations are hardly random and fall in line with broader cultural and social trends, not just politics.He explains:
Whether consciously or not, mentally disturbed people look around for cues about how others in their situation commonly behave. If you’re an American today, the cultural stereotype is that a sufficiently disturbed individual becomes a school shooter, not that he takes a shot at the president of the United States. This might be because killing an important politician is relatively harder, and so hitting soft targets has become the norm, especially given that would-be assassins might not be patient and competent enough to get around basic security measures. The particular ways in which misfits and losers boiling over with rage express their nihilistic despair are subject to being influenced by social norms no less than anything else. Social contagion is real, and it can be seen in everything from anorexia to rising rates of transgenderism to political assassinations.
And:
During times like this, people are at their most desperate for partisan rants. They want to be told that norms are breaking down and society is losing its way because of their political opponents. Why yes, my side might do bad things too, but the things we do aren’t nearly as bad, and they’re only responses to the things that the other guys did first.
Hanania also adds: success breeds success. Meaning, had Trump actually died yesterday, the risk of assassination becoming en vogue once more might be a legitimate concern. But since he didn’t die, the incentive for further attempts has been squelched, at least for the time being.
This means, whether you love Trump or hate Trump, we should all be grateful he’s alive.
What Can You Do?
I don’t know, how about… prep? I’ve often remarked that it’s never too late to do so, but honestly, this is more sentiment than reality. At some point, it really is too late, and you’ll know it when you’re stuck in a long line at the grocery store trying to get what’s left on the shelves before it’s all gone. If you needed a wake-up call, you got one. This is how drastically life can change, so don’t wait for the proverbial balloon to go up. We don’t live in a peaceful country, we don’t live in stable times. Things are about to get much more chaotic.
This man said it best about where things are headed:
You want to know why my Substack is titled “We’re Not At The End, But You Can See It From Here”? Now you know. You also know I hate being hyperbolic, but I really don’t think Malcom Kyeyune is being so here:
Last bit of advice: enjoy life. Seriously. After hearing the news, I ended up walking over to a local watering hole to watch a baseball game over some adult beverages. I have to say, it was tough to focus on the game. If Trump had in fact been shot in the head, I don’t know if I would’ve been able to watch the game at all. But I’m glad I forced myself out of the house and walked over. Cooping yourself indoors and sitting in front of your computer all day is no way to live. You’ve got to get out there, enjoy something other than current events, and interact with other people. I found that talking about the assassination attempt with strangers, terrible as it was, cathartic in a strange way. It reminded me that yes, ultimately, we’re all in this together.
I know it’s hard to believe. But somehow, above all the noise and hostility, that sense of unity needs to prevail. It’s our only defense against the unknown.
Difficult To See. Always In Motion Is The Future.
One last point I want to make. We’ve been hearing a lot about how the Right and Trump are both threats to democracy, to our national security, and all the rest. I’ll just say: someone who makes that argument cannot also be on the side that’s held a near-monopoly on political violence and violence rhetoric for several years. If any readers out there match that description, check yourself. It’s not too late to bring yourself back from the brink.
No matter your political beliefs, I hope this is how most of us still believe:
Finally, don’t forget that an innocent man died. One of us didn’t dodge a bullet. Devote some of your thoughts to this man and his family. It’s a harsh reminder of the true cost of political violence. There’s no honor in it at all.
Over to you now: what’s your reaction to yesterday’s events? Where do you think things are headed? Has something dramatically changed in this country, or are we going to manage to find a way to chug along like nothing happened? Do you agree or disagree anything stated above?
I’m anticipating a spirited conversation in the comments, but keep your emotions in check.
Max Remington writes about armed conflict and prepping. Follow him on Twitter at @AgentMax90.
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Commenter Belte likened the left to an abuser, and I’m going to borrow the analogy a bit.
Ricky Vaughn in 2016 tweeted something to the effect that Trump represented a return of the American spirit—the idea that the U.S. didn’t have to be the globohomo skinsuit it had become under Obama (and W. and others too).
Well, the abuser left couldn’t stand for that return of the American spirit—people thinking like that are focusing on fixing things at home, which might mess up trade deals and foreign wars, etc. So this American spirit, had to be snuffed out.
As much as all the psyops and dirty tricks in and after the 2016 campaign were about undermining Trump/his agenda, I think they were also about breaking this new American spirit. But this spirited resistance to the neoliberal project persisted, and so the violence, censorship, and lies constantly escalated from 2016-2020 trying to kill it.
That changed after the 2020 election was stolen and anyone daring to protest it was hunted by the feds. With every institution shown as corrupt and democracy revealed as a rigged game, that earnest spirit that America could be fixed was largely broken. The right’s spirit broken, the abusee finally knowing their place, the left could back off a little and focus on their wars and domestic scams, and not have things be quite so crazy.
That may change because that raised fist after surviving the assassination attempt might have rekindled the old American spirit. Before that, even with Trump winning, people were voting for self-preservation against leftist policies or to punish the left for their crimes—these goals are bad for the left, but do not threaten the left long-term as much as the fundamental reordering Trump represented and people thought possible in 2016. Institutional resistance to such an agenda can only be overcome with an implacable spirit. The image of Trump’s raised fist reminds one that there is good and courage in this world, and that with those things, perhaps America can be saved.
But if the abused right gets uppity again, believing and demanding that the managerial state and its globohomo assumptions be overwritten, we can expect something of the 2020 insanity starting to return. To the abuser left, the right needs to know its place, and deserves to be punished for stepping out of line. So lies and censorship and violence until their spirit is broken again.
Depending on how many comments this gets, I may have to do an update post on just this topic. I see good insight already.