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John of the West's avatar

The MAGA meltdown over Epstein is going to be one of those data points that future historians of this era will consign to a footnote, if they even pay attention to it at all. This, along with a bunch of other Trump stumbles lately, is going to galvanize the populist right into finally realizing that Trump is either unwilling or unable to any longer live up to his promises or be the political messiah the common person on the right has been looking for. Trump promised a lot, and talked a good game, and may actually be doing some good on things (time will tell), but his core mission has failed in the eyes of his supporters, and that is rolling back the political and economic apparatus that people see as disenfranchising them.

The elite tend to miss the point a lot of the time. The rich elite tend not to be creatures with strong political ideology, from what I’ve found. Half the time, they are influencing politics and political decisions. The political elite look move in the circles of the rich elite and think that material conditions are fine. Max’s point about comfort a couple of weeks ago drove that home. The elite think that if they can deliver a society which is essentially comfortable, then the rest doesn’t matter. The elite tend to be materialistic creatures much of the time, so they think everyone else is as well.

The average person often pays more attention to the system and how it works, for or against them. They can’t tolerate shifts in things nearly as well as the elite can, and most people live in a state of financial anxiety these days. When you are living on shaking ground, you need some form of assurance or security or faith that things are consistent enough to be able to buy a house, start a family, and raise your kids.

That is what Epstein was about. The average person takes a very dim view of sexual predation, especially on the young. Sexual predators are rightly seen as figurative wolves among the sheep, but you don’t know who the wolf is. That’s why it’s essentially that there is clarity and truth around how they are handled. Epstein was a member of the elite and a sexual predator, so a double whammy. And he was seen as connected with the shadowy world which people realize affects them, but they don’t understand all the workings and are told to have faith that things are run correctly. At best, there is an information gap, at worst, it’s a true conspiracy. The people get this, which is one reason they supported Trump and expected all of these things to come out.

Now, some possibilities. One is that Trump knew it was all garbage and just talked it up to convince people to vote for him. Second is that he thought there was fire beneath the smoke and thought he could expose it. Third is that he was warned not to release it. Fourth is that he realized releasing it would cause a great deal of damage, possibly to himself. Fifth is that there was never anything of substance there and he saw it sort of as a talking point. The truth doesn’t matter, just the fact that he created expectations of taking on the swamp.

The MAGA crowd is quickly losing faith in their champion. The war in Ukraine is still going on, the big beautiful bill is going to be another debt blowout, etc. They have already divorced the establishment right. Now they are going to divorce the Trump right. Previously, they still had some faith in the system, as long as their person was heading it up. Now they no longer have faith in him.

This is going to be the catalyst that will make political violence from the right far more common in the near term. The left, by its very nature, often divorced the system. The right has always tried to conserve the system, until their access and input to it is no longer there. This is when the right turns populist and will attempt to restore their version of the system. In other words, the right has now really realized they are disenfranchised in a meaningful sense.

If the left embraces transformative forces like immigration, and has made it the core of their being, like slavery was to the antebellum south, then the right’s core is a system they believe is stable and they can have faith in. If that’s gone, social restraints imposed by the system that the right supported no longer matter, and the buffer between the transformation of the left and the preservation of the right is gone.

I think the one unasked, or at least unanswered question, of 2020 was about the missing right wing violence. Plenty of guns, the ability to use them, and a scared 17 year old shooting three idiots trying to beat him to death, was the poster child of “right wing violence.” The right was not violent then, because Trump was still in power and everyone had faith. Trump’s in power now and people have lost faith in him. I think we are going to start seeing real violence coming from the right very soon and it will be very new and shocking to our era.

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Reckoning's avatar

It will be interesting to see what types of convictions and sentences these attackers will get. In the aftermath of the George Floyd riots leftist prosecutors were able to get minimal sentences for their own sympathizers.

I would say that one “strength” the American system has is the ability to put these people out of commission for long periods, if it so chooses. Historically a lot of revolutionaries got very short sentences and were even able to organize in prison.

My feeling is that we are entering very straitened years when a lot of expectations will be unmet due to high debt, aging populations and frustrated young people. Trump is trying to cut off an immense level of funding for leftist NGOs and organizations. If successful the long term dividends will be immense, but in the short term there will be a reaction.

Also note that a lot of young people are unable to start families and get established, so the stakes are lower for them to get involved in violence. People with kids aren’t going to get involved in street violence if they don’t have to.

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