What Should You Be Doing? Getting A Grip On Reality, For One
The thing about making predictions of doom is that it’s the same as telling someone they’re going to die.
Depending on which social (media) circles you’re part of, you may have noticed there are fewer topics attracting more attention than civil war and collapse. I even have a blog where I spend a lot of time talking about the topic! Even the polls show that the risk of civil war and collapse are on the minds of Americans, though predominantly more on one side of the divide than the other:
There’s a lot I could say about this, much of which has already been said. Personally, I have no problem leaving it up to others to save me the trouble, as this person does here:
The message is that people have been predicting cataclysm since time immemorial. In both good times and bad, there exists a subset of the population that events are towards doom, hence they’re known as “doomers.” These people can be either the most interesting in the world to listen to, or the most exasperating. Interesting because they often have incredibly insightful and profound things to say about the reality of the world we live in, such as the fact civilization is always nine meals away from total anarchy. Exasperating because they often go too far, talking about how we’re in a collapse or on the verge of one, or that World War III is just around the corner, they have the data nobody else has access to, these are unprecedented times, yada-yada-yada… it goes on without end.
Now, more than ever, it’s easier to profit off doomerism. Take a look at this tweet:
Understand? America’s about to become embroiled in a serious military conflict that will affect us directly here at home. And it’s going to happen literally soon. Of course, it would be useful to know exactly what they’re seeing that leads them to this conclusion?
Surely, a major military conflict is too important of a matter to share the associated intelligence with only your paying customers, is it? At some point, it becomes rather obvious what’s going on here.
By now, you ought to know I’m pessimistic about America’s future. I believe, as many others do, that the post-1945 world is a historical aberration and the U.S., especially, was blessed with an incredible amount of good fortune with virtually no historical precedent. You also know that the future I see for this country is one that’s increasingly authoritarian, expensive, violent, and embroiled in low-level armed conflict. We’re already no longer living in the country of our parents and grandparents and, 10 years from now, we’ll likely look back on today as “better times,” as we do with just about every moment in history.
None of this means we’re on the verge of civil war, collapse, or an unfathomable catastrophe that’s going to result in untold bloodshed. The thing about making predictions of doom is that it’s the same as telling someone they’re going to die. Of course, we all die eventually! It’s just a matter of how and when. Nobody can predict that and nobody can predict when a collapse or civil war will happen. It probably will, one day, but, over the course of several centuries, a civilization will endure just about everything under the sun.
These predictions of doom rarely come with specific dates or timelines, a suggestion not even they know what’s really coming over the horizon. In fact, they stand to lose the most should their predictions come true, since not only would they be stuck in the same boat as the rest of us, but they wouldn’t be able to profit off doom, either. Doomers may never be right, but they can never be wrong, either. As long as they’re never wrong, they’ll always have the benefit of a captive audience.
There’s also the tendency to perceive events as unprecedented, like we’ve never been here before. There’s some truth to this and, relatively speaking, the current moment is as dangerous as it’s ever been, I won’t argue much on that front. But this isn’t completely uncharted territory, either. After all, America’s a country that fought a civil war, saw its economy collapse at least once, endured multiple recessions, fought in many large overseas conflicts, all inside 240 years. A man I deeply admire and have been privileged to call a friend once told me, despite everything going on today, the Vietnam War and the tumult of the 1960s and early 1970s was still the most destabilizing event of his lifetime. Perspective matters.
It’s easy to forget the country has been through a lot in a relatively short period of time, yet we’re still standing. Certainly, we’re in a decline, an argument I’ve made in the past and will continue to make, but as someone I respect told me recently, “you’re either expanding or contracting.” The fact we’re in a contraction or a decline, whichever term you prefer, doesn’t mean we’re in a collapse! People need to possess the discipline necessary to not assume the worst will happen just because things are looking bleak at the moment. Otherwise, it’s like dying a thousand deaths before you get in trouble.
The moral of the story is quite simple: you cannot live your life on the basis of all the awful things that might happen in the future. There’d be no reason to live if you did. Worse, there are some people who want civil war or a collapse to happen because they’re so repulsed by the state of the country, they see cataclysm as an opportunity to act out on their grievances and harm whom they hate. Others see cataclysm as an opportunity to “start over” - either in their personal lives or to refashion society along their imagined standards.
Here’s the thing - if, in a state of relative stability, we have no control over events or the direction of society, why would any of us have more control in a state of chaos and disorder? Yet there are many out there who think just that: they, by virtue of owning more guns, being more “prepped,” and believing the right things, guarantee their survival, leaving them the last ones standing amid the ashes, from which they will rebuild civilization, again, according to their dictates. Not once does it cross their mind they, not those they hate, might be the ones who end up losing their lives in the process. Not once does it cross their mind that a war’s are rarely one-sided affairs where only one side does all the killing and the other side does all the dying. Not once does it cross their mind civil wars and collapses often take years and, ultimately, incur a cost so devastating, even the most committed zealots often end up wondering if it was all worth it in the end. Finally, not once do they consider the fact, after all the bloodletting and devastation, their side may not even prevail, in the end.
This is no way to live. Nobody knows for certain what tomorrow will really bring. Which is why, whether you’re concerned about the future or not, the answer is the same: just keep on living. You cannot control what kind of world we’re going to live in, nor what kind of social order will emerge in the future. What you can do is maximize the likelihood you and your loved ones will not only live to see it, but that you will weather the storm. You may not be able to stop what’s coming, but that doesn’t mean your life needs to stop as a result.
Far too many are worried about civil war and collapse, but not nearly as worried about their day-to-day lives and their personal well-being. If you’re overweight, not in good shape, have poor relationships or no relationship with your family, shun your neighbors, etc., the last thing you should be worried about is a civil war or collapse. You may not live long enough to see it, let alone take up arms and fight. If you’re around for it, you’d be among the first to die, no matter how many guns and ammo you’ve stockpiled. If you hate everyone, think they’ve all lost their minds, and all need to die, don’t be shocked if you’re the one they all turn against when the stuff really does hit the fan.
The lesson is that preparedness isn’t just about surviving, but living without fear and worry. Sure, nobody’s ever truly “ready,” but when you have plans, supplies, and other measures in place for emergencies, you’re in a much better position to weather storms, both figurative and literal, than someone who hasn’t. But to get to a point where you can weather storms effectively, you have to understand what storms you ought to be preparing to weather. This requires an honest assessment of risk in your life.
For example, most of us drive a vehicle. If you own a vehicle, but don’t know how to change a tire, a relatively simple emergency of a flat tire can turn into an arduous, exhausting, not to mention expensive, experience. If you’re a reckless driver, your already substantial risk of a motor vehicle accident skyrockets. Likewise, if health is an issue for you, your primary focus ought to be on how to live with an ailment day-to-day, along with avoiding associated medical emergencies that may result. If an emergency does occur, are you prepared to handle it? Do you know where your nearest hospital is? How quickly can 911 respond to your home? Who among family or friends are in a position to assist in an emergency?
Live in an area where earthquakes, hurricanes, and snowstorms occur annually? If it gets bad enough, you may encounter scenarios resembling civil war or collapse, if for only a brief time period. That’s what happened in Louisiana in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. Either way, natural disasters are devastating events everyone knows are inevitable, but how many people are actually prepared to deal with them? Again, don’t worry about a civil war/collapse if you’re not ready to deal with the natural disasters your area is at risk of encountering.
Have you ever lost your job before? How prepared were you when it happened? Did you have a resume ready to send out to prospective employers, or did you have to scramble to update it? Did you even know where to go look for work? How much money did you have in the bank? We can go through all of life’s “what-ifs,” but my point is that there are enough emergencies in our normal, day-to-day existence that we should be preparing for long before we ever start prepping for Civil War II and the end of our civilization. If you’re not capable of dealing with the problems staring at you in your face at this very moment, why would you be prepared to deal with problems that impact society as a whole?
Of course, job loss, medical emergencies, even natural disasters, aren’t just disruptive, but they’re also kind of boring. It’s much more interesting to talk about civil war and the end of the world as we know it. But not only is the preference for the boring over the enthralling a mark of wisdom, are job loss, medical emergencies, and natural disasters really boring? When they happen, they take up all our attention, resources, and time. It’s yet another suggestion these sorts of scenarios are what ought to be at the top of our list of concerns, not some catastrophe that could change the course of history and that none of us could meaningfully prepare for, anyway. Again, there’s no use in being preoccupied by world-changing events when you can’t even manage events in your own life that impact nobody except you and your family.
Finally, listen to some different people. Don’t just listen to the folks telling you about all the awful things that are coming and how you ought to be lifting and learning how to move and fight as a team. For starters, listen to people who have actually lived through civil war and collapse. Part of the problem with the discourse, at least in the U.S., is that it’s driven by people who have never experienced civil war nor collapse firsthand. No, deploying to a country that’s experienced such calamities as part of the military isn’t the same thing. If you listen to those who’ve actually lived it, you’re struck by how normal and boring it all becomes, no matter how frighteningly it might begin. This is because these people had to live with it and living, even in misery, was better than dying. It’s not about putting all your guns and coolest tactical gear to use. You’re going to be struggling to acquire or, even if you have a farm, produce food and you’re not going to be presented with a target-rich environment where you can mow down today’s political enemies. And again, if you can shoot, the enemy can certainly shoot back. It’s not a one-sided affair.
An example of someone you ought to be listening to is Fernando Aguirre, who lived through Argentina’s economic collapse in the early 2000s. He describes his experiences in his book The Modern Survival Manual: Surviving the Economic Collapse. His experience is certainly harrowing, yet hardly as dramatic as one might think, and the outcome deeply dissatisfying for those yearning for some great turning. Life became very difficult for millions in an instant, yet cities didn’t crumble into a heap of smoldering ashes, millions didn’t perish, and a civil war didn’t break out. Again, collapse, in the real world, is uncomfortable for all, no matter how prepared you might be, and it’s also kind of boring, with no real pay-off beyond living to talk about it.
There’s also Selco Begovic, who lived in ‘90s Bosnia and didn’t just witness a civil war up close - he lived it. He runs a website called “SHTF School,” which I recommend to anyone with a deep interest on the topic. His stories should put a damper on the enthusiasm of anyone who wants to see another civil war in the U.S. Begovic, along with so many others, endured nothing but misery, terror, and uncertainty for months on end. I harbor contempt towards anyone who thinks America “deserves” any of this. No matter our problems, no matter our wickedness, none of it defines this country. There’s always a better way to fix things that don’t involve burning the country down.
Finally, I recommend Todd Sepulveda, who hosts the prepper-themed “Ready Your Future” podcast. Unlike Aguirre and Begovic, Sepulveda is an American who’s never lived through civil war nor collapse. However, he’s arguably one of the most even-handed voices in the prepping community and I think he actually represents the “silent majority” among preppers and survivalists. Sepulveda emphasizes the importance of preparing not for dramatic cataclysms, but instead for the emergencies you’re most likely to encounter in your daily lives - illness and injury, job loss, car problems, etc. Such advice is useful even in good times, demonstrating that prepardness isn’t something for certain kinds of people and only under certain conditions. It’s for everyone, at all times. We don’t prepare because we’re worried, we stay prepared so we don’t need to worry, since we’ll be up to handling a given scenario when it arises.
Finally, Sepulveda emphasizes the importance of family and, if you’re a believer, faith. It’s easy to get sucked into certain rabbit holes if you’re lacking in meaningful connections with others or if you’re a nihilist who thinks everyone needs to die and everything destroyed. If this describes you, it’d be so easy for me to just say, “Don’t take us down with you.” Instead, I’ll take the high road and ask, nicely, “Don’t do this to yourself.”
Fernando Aguirre survived an economic collapse and seems to be doing well for himself these days. Had he given into despair or engaged in self-destructiveness, would he have been able to write a book about his experiences to help us prepare for the day? If Selco Begovic didn’t have family and friends he could rely on, would he have survived the Bosnian War? Could he have done so without losing his soul in the process? Neither man gave into despair and nihilism. They found a reason to keep on living and sought refuge in those they loved and cared for. After all, to quote the late, great, Queen Elizabeth II, “It is this close bond of family life that must be our greatest defence against the unknown.”
Millions of people around the world live with war and perpetually collapsing societies without any hope of relieve. But they insist on continuing to live. They would like nothing more than for the fighting to end and going on to lead boring, quiet lives with their loved ones. It’s nice to think you have something to fight and die for, but a nice thought is all it is. Most people die without anyone knowing why or whether their lives mattered. When given the choice, most will choose to live rather than die. Those who choose to die do so believing their sacrifice will allow others to live. It’s noble, but it’s also not a choice I’m looking forward to making. Like most of us, I’d rather live.
Hard times are coming, but don’t worry about being the last one standing. Just keep on living. You’ll never get to have a say in how things turn out if you don’t.
Max Remington writes about armed conflict and prepping. Follow him on Twitter at @AgentMax90.
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