What The Brazil Capitol Raid Says About Them. And Us.
Unfortunately, this kind of describes the U.S. already.
What a start to 2023. So much has happened in only the first two weeks of the new year, I probably won’t be able to cover everything I want to talk about before another batch of major stories captures our collective attention. It hearkens back to the early days of 2020, that year of consequence when the stuff pretty much hit the fan. I was counting on 2023 being a relatively quiet year, mostly because we all know 2024 won’t be, but I don’t know anymore. These first two weeks of 2023 have driven home the fact that we just never know what’s around the corner.
I do want to bring your attention back to events in Brazil. On January 8, in what’s now being called an “invasion,” right-wing political protestors raided the National Congress building (Brazil’s equivalent of the United States Capitol building), along with other federal government buildings. The raiders were protesting the outcome of the presidential elections held last October, which saw the election of left-winger and felon Lula da Silva over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, himself a controversial figure. The “invasion” drew instant parallels to the January 6, 2021 raid on the U.S. Capitol, an incident which the American Left simply cannot let go of, despite the fact the only direct fatality as a result of the incident was that of a protestor, and despite the fact the Left has been quite liberal, no pun intended, in it’s exercise of protest and political violence, throughout history.
Of course, it’s only fair to point out America’s “1/6” might’ve triggered a strong reaction because it’s not something we’re exactly accustomed to seeing. Meanwhile, incidents like “1/8” are more common in Brazil than you may realize. In fact, they seem to happen every 20 years:
Lesson being, Brazil, compared to the U.S., is a politically unstable place. So I can see why many Americans were shocked and concerned by what happened on 1/6/21 because it’s not something that happens every generation. This can be true even as Americans have come to regard left-wing violence as a norm: if it’s not the Left burning, looting, and obstructing roadways, nobody’s doing it.
So if the events of 1/8 aren’t anything out of the norm for Brazil, does that mean things are going back to normal? As you might expect after months of reading this blog, reality is complicated. Ommar Fabian, a Brazilian and an insightful source of analysis and perspective on all matters collapse/decline-related, has this to say about the question of whether 1/8 is a game-changer for his country:
Not really. Turbulent protests have happened with certain frequency in the Capital since 1989, when Brazil transitioned from the military regime installed in 1964 to democracy again – and even before that. Official buildings have been raided many times before as well. However, never like this.
My American colleagues feeling of déjà vu might be excused. But while the similarities between J6 and our “J8” are many, the background and underlying structures are different. Every democracy is subject to shakes and shocks; how well they resist depends on its foundations. And the US has more solid institutions, a long tradition of democracy, and a much stronger separation of powers compared to Brazil.
Be that as it may, this is just another unfortunate yet expected eruption of discontent caused by the ongoing polycrisis everywhere. You can always go lower: as a developing country, Brazil is certainly not immune to further Thirdworldization, that I can say. And indeed, the social and political scenarios aren’t the only ones deteriorating fast around here: the economy and liberty are quickly going down the drain as well.
Despite America’s own burgeoning political crisis, it’s safe to say we’re still nowhere close to where Brazil is at. Again, some people may be bothered by this fact, but I’m not. Political stability is kind of rare throughout history, so we should be thankful for it, no matter how ineffective or worthless our government proves itself.
By the same token, Brazil is a perfect example of what happens when a relatively well-developed country cannot manage its affairs. It finds itself in an endless loop where one crisis after another develops, but nothing ever gets resolved, power changes hands, but the same problems persist. Meanwhile, the crises just keep coming and coming, creating a “polycrisis,” to use Fabian’s term. The presidency becomes a revolving door, occupied by increasingly autocratic and radical leaders who may not be all bad, but can never really deliver on their promises nor maintain stability, and become known more for their personalities than their policies.
Unfortunately, this kind of describes the U.S. already. Since Obama, Americans have been increasingly voting in our presidents based on personality measures, even as the candidates very clearly don’t have any answers to our problems. Meanwhile, the long emergencies of the War on Terror, the Great Recession, climate change, COVID, White supremacy, etc. are never-ending.
The point isn’t that our leaders should’ve resolved these crises by now, but rather that our leaders insist they have the answers, while obviously attempting to managing the crisis instead of really fixing them. Maybe there is no solution. People like me would have more sympathy for them if they were upfront and honest about our prognosis and didn’t resort to showing such blatant contempt for us. A perfect example of this is inflation: the Biden administration started off denying it was happening, now it brags about the slowing rate of inflation, trying to take credit for improving conditions.
You don’t need to have attended an Ivy League school to grasp logic: one cannot take credit for fixing a problem they claimed never existed in the first place.
Enough Biden-bashing. Here’s where Fabian sees events headed in his country:
This will increase tensions and inevitably lead to further ominous developments going ahead. In my November article, I tried to highlight the divisiveness expressed by Lula’s small victory margin (1,38%) and the encroachment of radical positions from side to side. I also mentioned the dissatisfaction with both candidates by the significant part of the population who abstained or voted null.
None of that has been addressed in satisfactory ways by any of the parties.
Leadership from both sides is to blame. Bolsonaro and the conservatives are failing to mount a cohesive, organized, and responsible opposition capable of galvanizing serious support. They keep insisting on rigged elections, yet no solid evidence has been presented despite various promises and innuendo. Realistically, at this point, the chances of a democratic and peaceful revision of the 2022 elections are slim to none.
Lula, on his part, has yet to fulfill his promise made during the campaign to unify the population and listen to all sectors of society. On the contrary: so far, the populist and rabid leader has displayed his typical aggressive bravado, only furthering the “them and us”discourse.
In short, both sides are deaf and screaming at each other simultaneously. No wonder things are reaching boiling point.
Again, Brazil is further along the timeline than we are, but what describes their predicament generally describes ours. Graciously, the screaming and shouting has subsided some in the U.S. the last few years, but the relative tranquility won’t last. Social media and private conversations reveal tremendous anger, discontent, and hatred on both sides. The 2024 election, the highest-stakes presidential election in at least a generation, is going to blast it all out into the open once more, like a submarine performing an emergency surfacing.
It’s only a question of how bad it’s going to get and, if 2020 was any indication, it gives one a tremendous sense of unease.
What does Fabian think of the actions of his countrymen? It may or may not surprise you:
It was violent, unnecessary, uncalled for, anti-patriotic, and shameful. The storming and depredation of official buildings in the Capital of the country are grave and condemnable in any democracy; no two ways about it.
Objectively, it was a shot in the foot. There was no gain, no conquering. Not an inch of the opposition’s agenda has been advanced, and nothing positive or concrete was achieved. If anything, it will backfire and cause a blow to the conservative movement. The left couldn’t hope for something this good for their “cause.”
Fabian’s views of Brazil’s 1/8 largely reflect my views of America’s 1/6. Though it was hardly an “insurrection” (by that loose definition, every protest or riot in our history constituted an insurrection), I think the American Right spent most of the last two years in denial over how counter-intuitive and self-destructive it really was. The radical left can afford to perform such high-wire acts because of the institutional cover it receives, something the radical right has no access to. Left-wing protests and riots have been normalized, while right-wing activity is viewed as off-the-baseline, making it easier to zero-in on their behavior as uniquely dangerous to “democracy.”
The American Right has gone from claiming to speak for the “silent majority,” even as Trump lost the popular vote twice and never performed well in the polls, to adopting a defiant, “Who cares what anyone else thinks?” attitude. This isn’t indicative of a thriving political movement, but of a demoralized, unpopular one. Ironically, it’s become easier to critique the Left and the Regime with Trump out of the way and Biden in office, simply because the former isn’t around to dominate media coverage the way he used to. Lately, the best critiques of the Left and the Regime have come from center-left voices or right-wing personalities not associated with “MAGA.” Objectively, Biden winning in 2020 was a good thing because it not only allowed the Regime to finally be judged in the open, but because Trump wouldn’t have done much better than Biden at handling crisis anyway, meaning it’s the Right that’d be in the hot-seat right now, not the Regime. It’s a fact which seems to get lost on Trump’s most ardent supporters.
Sour as the Right might be over Trump’s 2020 loss, Americans picking Biden was a rational choice, given the events of that year in particular. Unfortunately, you can’t convince anyone who thinks the 2020 election was fraudulent of these realities. I explained in my last post, but even if our elections were fair and secure to the Right’s satisfaction, the results of the past two elections would’ve been little different because there are more Democrats in the country and because left-wing policies are more popular than right-wing ones. Unless the Right can somehow reconcile this, the Left will continue to be on the ascent, even as a bold, but still-insufficient push-back against the Regime coalesces.
I guess what I’m saying is that the Right needs to think more like the Left and play the long game, instead of always looking towards the next election. The Left didn’t come within spitting distance of single-party rule by doing nothing but winning elections - if anything, it lost quite a few along the way. Rather, it won the hearts and minds of the American people, especially the young. It infiltrated and conquered the institutions. I’m not saying these options are available to the Right - they’re not, unfortunately - but they need to understand their moment hasn’t come yet. This is yet another thing which seems to piss people off, but the fact is, this era of Woke Leftist dominance has to play itself out to the point where mounting crises and their own internal contradictions unravel the Regime.
Cynical as it is to say, the Right is at it’s best when state and society finds itself in an existential crisis. But if it wants to be well-positioned to take power when that crisis comes (I believe, a generation from now), it has to back off on the foolishness, seriously reckon with the upheavals to come, like the collapse of globalization, and come up with a vision of what it will take to sustain the country through 2050 and how they plan to revitalize American identity and nationhood. I’ve said it elsewhere, but the Right should be playing the role of civilization’s proponents, but it seems currently they want to be its destroyers.
It doesn’t make sense, because if the Right in both the U.S. and Brazil think this is as bad as it gets, they’re dead wrong:
The whole ordeal gave the government, the Supreme Court, and the media substantial ammo to turn the screws on the conservatives. Justice Alexandre de Moraes already ordered the demobilization and arrest of protesters still encamped in other cities and states, among other measures, to deflate the protests.
The activism and overreaching of the Supreme Court to demoralize, persecute and criminalize conservative leaders, common citizens and even elected representatives is deeply concerning. Everything is being legitimized in the name of “defending Brazilian democracy”. (“Never let a good crisis go to waste” seems to be the prevailing theory in every country.)
More will come. Repression, suspension of rights, censorship.
Imagine thinking that giving your enemies the justification needed to crack down on you is any kind of win. People like myself have spent the last few years trying to convince others of this. Hopefully, the message is starting to filter through.
I recommend you read Fabian’s whole article, but I wanted to take on this last bit from it:
A lot will change in Brazil. That’s evident. It’s in the air, I can already feel it. There will be ripples and developments, which will cause other conflicts, that’s for sure. I’m paying attention and getting ready for more, that’s what I can do.
However, I still don’t see a civil war or a government collapse, at least not anytime soon. It was an important and impactful event, but a localized one and was quickly controlled. The government and the institutions are intact, and so far, the military wasn’t involved.
It’s hard for some to believe now, but I think the enthusiasm for civil war, collapse, or even a complete reshaping of the political order will wane if the U.S. ever truly “Brazilifies.” We haven’t quite stared into the abyss just yet, though we certainly got a glimpse in 2020. Once we start experiencing the level of turbulence Brazil has become accustomed to, it becomes a lot less exciting because it’s no longer some epic morality tale in your mind, but a dangerous, uncontrollable predicament which could cost you and your loved ones your well-being.
This makes a part of me wonder if the reason why places like Brazil can never escape the spiral of self-destruction, while remaining surprisingly stable, is because people can only handle so much instability in their lives. I’ve written about this before, but for Brazil to escape the morass, it’d need to resort to fixes that’d literally turn everything upside down and inside out. It’d be an easier sell if results were guaranteed and people would see the pay-off in their lifetimes, but the truth is it takes a lifetime for a country to end up in a hole and, typically, another lifetime to get out of it, even if radical solutions were implemented. This is what I was getting at earlier when talking about playing the long game. Radical solutions only work if you can bring everyone along for the ride. If you can’t, then they’re not going to work, no matter how hard you try to force it down peoples’ throats. Some of us fantasize about authoritarianism, but there’s a reason why these regimes are generally unstable and unsustainable.
But we’re Americans! you might say. Sure and authoritarianism has never been in our DNA. That said, as much as I like to say Americans are built different, I feel things are also changing and Americans are becoming a little less “exceptional.” A lot of this is because Americans themselves have become more self-critical and self-hating, looking at other civilizations and cultures for inspiration, and becoming open to the idea of undoing our entire existence. The Left is most definitely far gone, but the Right seems to be headed down that path too, unfortunately. Maybe a little authoritarianism will be needed at some point down the line to keep the republic viable for the future, I don’t know. We all have our ideas about where it’s all headed, but we’re still early in this chapter of the American Story.
I do know this: Americans are also just human: when given the choice between peace and conflict, they prefer peace. So don’t judge them too harshly if they decide there’s too much politics out there and choose to tune it all out. I admit it gets exasperating seeing how apathetic, disengaged, and unaware people are, only to start caring when an authority figure or the media tells them to, but again, this is how people are in general. In a small way, we should all be thankful most of us are preoccupied with something other than politics: imagine over 300 million politically-energized people all choosing sides and digging their heels in. Then we’d have a reason to worry about a civil war!
I know I sound dangerously close to saying, “Everything’s under control, situation normal.” I’m not. Our problems are real and they’ll get worse. My point is that nobody ever really wants their country to go off the cliff, not even the people in charge. The “Pottery Barn rule” of You break it, you buy it is apt here. Whether in Brazil or the U.S., if the country disintegrates into uncontrolled chaos and disorder, it’s up to whoever is in charge to restore order. This isn’t a responsibility they can outsource to anyone else, lest they discard their own legitimacy. So while they might allow the barbarians and savages roam free for a bit, eventually, they’ll have to restore order because even their supporters will demand it and the fire cannot be allowed to burn uncontrollably. Sure, it’ll eventually burn itself out, but those in charge cannot be seen as having lit the inferno, nor allowed it to rage.
I’ll close out by saying Brazil is both a portend of bad and good news for our country. It’s a sign of where the U.S. is headed, at least politically, but it’s also a evidence that dysfunction and Third Worldization (a state where the system just quits functioning, like the FAA system outage last week) don’t necessarily lead to the immediate death of a country. Things may not get better, but there’s a limit to how bad things can get at once, because, no matter how bad it does get, we the people still prefer to live in a world where we can go to work, watch sports, and enjoy the comforts of home and our loved ones without worrying about whether we’re going to be alive or dead tomorrow.
It’s a good thing. Like Fabian says, prepare, then go about living your life.
Max Remington is a defense, military, and foreign policy writer. Follow him on Twitter at @AgentLoyalist.
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