Yeah, I'm with other commenters on the "far left ascendant" thing, I just don't see it at all. Seattle and NYC aren't exactly bellwethers. With the redistricting wars basically wrapped, I think it's well within the realm of possibility that the Republicans hold the House in the midterms, and given the Democrats' complete lack of national level leadership (and no, Mamdami ain't it), I think that barring some black swan event it's almost a foregone conclusion that either Vance or Rubio wins in '28.
re: far left ascendant. I disagree. While there are far left candidates winning Dem primaries in liberal areas, there's also a backlash and counterrevolution on our side. I'm seeing things online and from some conservative politicians regarding race, ethnicity, immigration, etc. that never would have been uttered 10-15 years ago. The availability of police body cam footage and random social media has engendered a lot of rethinking of these pieties. As i look at the candidates who won in NY especially, the biggest differences between them and incumbents wasn't immigration, it was rent control, Israel and billionaire taxes. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat don't support ICE raids or want to discontinue sanctuary policies.
If DSA candidates advocate abolishing ICE and encouraging the world to move to US to take advantage of BRC, I think we've just gained the best campaign issue possible. It's not far left ascendant, it's clarity about what the left really believes. Conservatives win when people know that.
You’re essentially right, especially over alarmists, but I don’t think the transition to empire will be more than a managed decline with increased aggression.
Just the aging population alone makes it a fight against collapsing supply chains (or AI saves us).
That’s not even getting into demographic conflict, bioleninism, ect.
"Woke has won. There’s no viable way forward for the Right to propagate its values."
I don't want this to be true, but I strongly suspect it is. Although not for the reasons you specify.
--- Puts on philosophy teacher hat ---
The Left's values can be derived from a simple assumption about man: "the purpose of life is to live however you want as you've not hurting someone else." This bastardization of J.S. Mill conquered America decades ago.
The Right's values require a transcendental source -- God or country, religion or nationalism -- since limiting man's on freedom must be based on something beyond man. Modern America has killed God (thanks Nietzsche for pointing that out) and our national mythos is in tatters. Hence, the Right has no path to enforce it's vision of "the good".
So we end up with bastardized John Stuart Mill. At least until we go broke.
--- Puts on economics teacher hat ---
Brent Johnson;'s assessment is right on: in a less globalized world, I'd much rather be American than German or Hungarian. A continent spanning, industrialized country protected by oceans is in situated to do well.
However, I still maintain the "collapse" is coming, and unlike Johnson, I still put my money on a currency / debt crisis: the United States getting Liz Trussed by the global bond market. WHEN it will happen I have no idea (Japan is up to 200%+ of GDP with no interest rate effects.) THAT it will happen I have no doubt. Our recent misadventures in Iran have only made it more likely. This may well be your 2030 economic crisis.
Our imperial Franco may come before or after that, but he will come in response to economics (debt crisis or a very extended govt shutdown) not political violence.
So, door A, severe economic contraction caused by a debt crisis; door B, a woke, left-wing, globe-spanning, American empire. What great choices.
Winning Democratic primaries in deep blue cities is one thing, but I still haven’t seen a DSA or fellow traveler win an election in a Republican district or Red State. I guess we will see in a purplish blue state whether Susan Collins can beat the Nazi Communist, but Maine is not a Red State either.
Yeah, I'm with other commenters on the "far left ascendant" thing, I just don't see it at all. Seattle and NYC aren't exactly bellwethers. With the redistricting wars basically wrapped, I think it's well within the realm of possibility that the Republicans hold the House in the midterms, and given the Democrats' complete lack of national level leadership (and no, Mamdami ain't it), I think that barring some black swan event it's almost a foregone conclusion that either Vance or Rubio wins in '28.
re: far left ascendant. I disagree. While there are far left candidates winning Dem primaries in liberal areas, there's also a backlash and counterrevolution on our side. I'm seeing things online and from some conservative politicians regarding race, ethnicity, immigration, etc. that never would have been uttered 10-15 years ago. The availability of police body cam footage and random social media has engendered a lot of rethinking of these pieties. As i look at the candidates who won in NY especially, the biggest differences between them and incumbents wasn't immigration, it was rent control, Israel and billionaire taxes. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat don't support ICE raids or want to discontinue sanctuary policies.
If DSA candidates advocate abolishing ICE and encouraging the world to move to US to take advantage of BRC, I think we've just gained the best campaign issue possible. It's not far left ascendant, it's clarity about what the left really believes. Conservatives win when people know that.
You’re essentially right, especially over alarmists, but I don’t think the transition to empire will be more than a managed decline with increased aggression.
Just the aging population alone makes it a fight against collapsing supply chains (or AI saves us).
That’s not even getting into demographic conflict, bioleninism, ect.
"Woke has won. There’s no viable way forward for the Right to propagate its values."
I don't want this to be true, but I strongly suspect it is. Although not for the reasons you specify.
--- Puts on philosophy teacher hat ---
The Left's values can be derived from a simple assumption about man: "the purpose of life is to live however you want as you've not hurting someone else." This bastardization of J.S. Mill conquered America decades ago.
The Right's values require a transcendental source -- God or country, religion or nationalism -- since limiting man's on freedom must be based on something beyond man. Modern America has killed God (thanks Nietzsche for pointing that out) and our national mythos is in tatters. Hence, the Right has no path to enforce it's vision of "the good".
So we end up with bastardized John Stuart Mill. At least until we go broke.
--- Puts on economics teacher hat ---
Brent Johnson;'s assessment is right on: in a less globalized world, I'd much rather be American than German or Hungarian. A continent spanning, industrialized country protected by oceans is in situated to do well.
However, I still maintain the "collapse" is coming, and unlike Johnson, I still put my money on a currency / debt crisis: the United States getting Liz Trussed by the global bond market. WHEN it will happen I have no idea (Japan is up to 200%+ of GDP with no interest rate effects.) THAT it will happen I have no doubt. Our recent misadventures in Iran have only made it more likely. This may well be your 2030 economic crisis.
Our imperial Franco may come before or after that, but he will come in response to economics (debt crisis or a very extended govt shutdown) not political violence.
So, door A, severe economic contraction caused by a debt crisis; door B, a woke, left-wing, globe-spanning, American empire. What great choices.
Winning Democratic primaries in deep blue cities is one thing, but I still haven’t seen a DSA or fellow traveler win an election in a Republican district or Red State. I guess we will see in a purplish blue state whether Susan Collins can beat the Nazi Communist, but Maine is not a Red State either.