There's another option you haven't considered: Germany has not historically been united in one country. I think it's due to fracture again, and some states will be more under ethnic German governance than others (the East and my native Saxony). AfD won nearly 40% of the vote in Saxony.
How long before high AfD regions try to break away?
I don't think it's too late - not for Germany, not for the UK. I'll admit, I'm a bit of a Pollyanna about these things, but I know for a fact that, even if I do think that there's still time to reverse course, the longer they stay it, the more dramatic, draconian, and unfortunately, violent the outcome will be when corrective measures are taken. When I was in both countries, and I spoke candidly to the youth in both - mostly young men - there was a big appetite for change, but a general listlessness of how to bring it about. This was not exclusive to one political persuasion; I met self-professed socialists and greenies in England that shared their centrist and right-leaning countrymen's woes about the government. Regardless of political leanings, they all told me the same thing, which was, in effect, this - "Our political system is broken and no meaningful change will ever happen until it falls apart." Of course, they all had differing opinions about what should happen after that point, but they're all unified in the belief that something, on a fundamental level, has to change in their political systems. And they aren't wrong. As another commenter said, I think Europe is a powder keg waiting for a black swan to dive in with a lit match. As is the nature of a black swan event, it's pointless to even speculate on what form it will take or what kind of nature it will be. The thing is that you're right when you say that the European boomers who have a stranglehold on the levers of political power have every reason and desire to see things continue to go at pace, but I just can't imagine that they won't. I'm beginning to suspect that Trump, regardless of what anyone thinks of him, or if his plans are even beneficial in the long run, is going to be the catalyst that does something to change the status quo. Maybe it will be severe budget cuts to the European welfare state that will have to be made if and when they're required to bolster their security spending? These pensioners are happy to throw the younger generations to the wolves, but when when their pension checks stop coming, that'll destabilize these countries from top to bottom. Some sort of financial crisis, as unfortunate as it would be to see, would probably have the same effect. Either way, once the status quo is broken by whatever may break it, then and only then will these countries be able to turn around. God willing it will not be before they reach the event-horizon of catastrophe.
As a European (French, but dual nationality raised in USA) I can shed some light on the psyche of the boomer European.
For boomers are both oblivious to the problems facing the younger generations, they really only care about the next lunch with friends, and the afternoon nap afterwards; the next trip to Italy and the nice hotel they can stay in. In short, 100% materialism. And are fiercely protective of their "benefits": be it getting that monthly check from social security and having some foreigner person take care of their lawns, clean their cars, serve them dinner.
My mom (the french part of my fam) is more aware of the long term issues facing my generation and younger. She's my mom, we talk about these things, she listens. Yet, when she's with her friends she'll sometimes steer the conversation to the problems of mass migration, debt etc. And every time she is utterly shocked at her friends "indifference" (her word). They really just don't care.
What do you make of the divide in the old East and West Germany? Based on a map Rod Dreher posted yesterday, AfD got the majority in the old East Germany.
I think conditions across many European countries, Germany included, are ripening for black swan events.
I agree with your conclusion about democracy, as it's structured today, inhibiting change to a degree that to the outside observer could be described as revolutionary. To a certain extent this helps explain why people have and are reacting to Trump over the last few months, in the sense that he's changing quantitatively more than the trend post 90s, which has more or less favored the status quo, which naturally has made many people uncomfortable. The 5* example from Italy is another classic example of cordon sanitaire followed by co-optation once in power (and today they're a shell of their former selves etc).
I also agree that it's a generational and numbers problem.
What I think will happen, across most of Europe, is a sort of rebellion, which is not to be confused with revolution, and which from the future looking back will be described as civil war or unrest, but which will actually be a case of social movements rising and the normalization of physical violence.
The state apparatus will wither but not disappear; it will become less relevant in our everyday lives. Police forces across the continent have also suffered from the de-masculinity trend and I'm going to guess they're just not capable of handling and subduing en masse rioting etc.
The main reason why I think all this is because the status quo has resisted change and when we silence moderate voices, conflict theory shows us this empowers extremists. And eventually some extremist somewhere will do something that is seen to be "successful", and every other extremist will copy that activity.
In concrete terms I look at the comical street violence that occured in the UK in the summer of '24. Lots of aspects of it are unclear, but what is actually "frightening" is that if you look at the photos, most of the participants had their faces uncovered. To me this means they weren't thinking about the repercussions from the state apparatus (which responded in a heavy manner with jail sentences up to 3 years in some cases), in the sense that we had mobs of people who didn't give a f*ck. And this is very dangerous, because they're defacto signaling that they're not afraid.
So the longer the "institutional" political parties inhibit "radical" change, the more likely groups will emerge who eventually will operate outside the permitted sandbox.
This will be the black swan.
We all suffer from normalcy bias, assuming tomorrow will be like today.
So I think a lot of people, and unfortunately a majority of them are men, are unsatisfied or angry with the status quo. And just like before Hitler became chancellor there was an organization of street brawlers called the SA, the muscle of the party, which had to be disbanded as a price to pay for admittance to ruling the state post 1933, I think the status quo miscalculates the potential for men (because it's usually mostly men lol) to take what happened in the UK '24 and make that the new normal.
Being thrown in the slammer has its benefits for radicals. More likely than not (in the current political climate) thats 3 years of being bitter, lifting weights with others like you (not to mention all the violent encounters). Its similar to how gangs recruit using prisons. The moustashe man wrote his book in prison, lenin spent 3 years in siberia.
Seems like the conservatives should all seek out an area that can be easily defended. Elect conservatives and be self sufficient. Let the rest of the country destroy itself. It’s the only chance at long term survival that I can see.
I worked in Holland surrounded by Germans for several years. European politics are extremely narrow, especially Germany. "When Germans have internalized an ideology, they remain loyal to it - until the total collapse." -- a very accurate summary. And their conception of history makes everyday Europeans are allergic to anything even remotely nationalistic or right-wing. A Yankee comparison: for middle-class Germans, AfD is the KKK and Alice Weidel is David Duke in drag. And that's probably understates it slightly.
"Given the danger mass immigration poses to women, it’d make sense for them to vote for parties that say they plan on doing something about it."
We're seeing this everywhere: educated feminists trying to destroy the very civilization that makes feminist education possible. It's illogical, but they're all woke postmodernists and "logic is white supremacy". I just used Thomas Cole's Desecration of Empire in one of my articles recently -- https://tinyurl.com/33xm8b96 A breakdown of civilization is uniquely bad for women. Yet Western feminists will keep demanding deconstruction of their own civilization until they end up like that poor girl in the lower center (well, with torn jeans and pink hair and a dozen piercings instead of a white dress.)
Bottom line: Germany is lost. I say that from personal experience and from demography. Has Michel Houllebecq's Submission has been translated into German?
Finally, the political gender divide appears to be universal among industrialized countries at this point and bodes VERY ill for our long term survival. In 20 years, we may all be S. Korea.
Germany has two elections to go to select nationalism and a German governance. 8 years and I'm being optimistic. Screw the green crap and multikulti. Embrace your heritage and defend it.
There's another option you haven't considered: Germany has not historically been united in one country. I think it's due to fracture again, and some states will be more under ethnic German governance than others (the East and my native Saxony). AfD won nearly 40% of the vote in Saxony.
How long before high AfD regions try to break away?
I don't think it's too late - not for Germany, not for the UK. I'll admit, I'm a bit of a Pollyanna about these things, but I know for a fact that, even if I do think that there's still time to reverse course, the longer they stay it, the more dramatic, draconian, and unfortunately, violent the outcome will be when corrective measures are taken. When I was in both countries, and I spoke candidly to the youth in both - mostly young men - there was a big appetite for change, but a general listlessness of how to bring it about. This was not exclusive to one political persuasion; I met self-professed socialists and greenies in England that shared their centrist and right-leaning countrymen's woes about the government. Regardless of political leanings, they all told me the same thing, which was, in effect, this - "Our political system is broken and no meaningful change will ever happen until it falls apart." Of course, they all had differing opinions about what should happen after that point, but they're all unified in the belief that something, on a fundamental level, has to change in their political systems. And they aren't wrong. As another commenter said, I think Europe is a powder keg waiting for a black swan to dive in with a lit match. As is the nature of a black swan event, it's pointless to even speculate on what form it will take or what kind of nature it will be. The thing is that you're right when you say that the European boomers who have a stranglehold on the levers of political power have every reason and desire to see things continue to go at pace, but I just can't imagine that they won't. I'm beginning to suspect that Trump, regardless of what anyone thinks of him, or if his plans are even beneficial in the long run, is going to be the catalyst that does something to change the status quo. Maybe it will be severe budget cuts to the European welfare state that will have to be made if and when they're required to bolster their security spending? These pensioners are happy to throw the younger generations to the wolves, but when when their pension checks stop coming, that'll destabilize these countries from top to bottom. Some sort of financial crisis, as unfortunate as it would be to see, would probably have the same effect. Either way, once the status quo is broken by whatever may break it, then and only then will these countries be able to turn around. God willing it will not be before they reach the event-horizon of catastrophe.
As a European (French, but dual nationality raised in USA) I can shed some light on the psyche of the boomer European.
For boomers are both oblivious to the problems facing the younger generations, they really only care about the next lunch with friends, and the afternoon nap afterwards; the next trip to Italy and the nice hotel they can stay in. In short, 100% materialism. And are fiercely protective of their "benefits": be it getting that monthly check from social security and having some foreigner person take care of their lawns, clean their cars, serve them dinner.
My mom (the french part of my fam) is more aware of the long term issues facing my generation and younger. She's my mom, we talk about these things, she listens. Yet, when she's with her friends she'll sometimes steer the conversation to the problems of mass migration, debt etc. And every time she is utterly shocked at her friends "indifference" (her word). They really just don't care.
What do you make of the divide in the old East and West Germany? Based on a map Rod Dreher posted yesterday, AfD got the majority in the old East Germany.
I think conditions across many European countries, Germany included, are ripening for black swan events.
I agree with your conclusion about democracy, as it's structured today, inhibiting change to a degree that to the outside observer could be described as revolutionary. To a certain extent this helps explain why people have and are reacting to Trump over the last few months, in the sense that he's changing quantitatively more than the trend post 90s, which has more or less favored the status quo, which naturally has made many people uncomfortable. The 5* example from Italy is another classic example of cordon sanitaire followed by co-optation once in power (and today they're a shell of their former selves etc).
I also agree that it's a generational and numbers problem.
What I think will happen, across most of Europe, is a sort of rebellion, which is not to be confused with revolution, and which from the future looking back will be described as civil war or unrest, but which will actually be a case of social movements rising and the normalization of physical violence.
The state apparatus will wither but not disappear; it will become less relevant in our everyday lives. Police forces across the continent have also suffered from the de-masculinity trend and I'm going to guess they're just not capable of handling and subduing en masse rioting etc.
The main reason why I think all this is because the status quo has resisted change and when we silence moderate voices, conflict theory shows us this empowers extremists. And eventually some extremist somewhere will do something that is seen to be "successful", and every other extremist will copy that activity.
In concrete terms I look at the comical street violence that occured in the UK in the summer of '24. Lots of aspects of it are unclear, but what is actually "frightening" is that if you look at the photos, most of the participants had their faces uncovered. To me this means they weren't thinking about the repercussions from the state apparatus (which responded in a heavy manner with jail sentences up to 3 years in some cases), in the sense that we had mobs of people who didn't give a f*ck. And this is very dangerous, because they're defacto signaling that they're not afraid.
So the longer the "institutional" political parties inhibit "radical" change, the more likely groups will emerge who eventually will operate outside the permitted sandbox.
This will be the black swan.
We all suffer from normalcy bias, assuming tomorrow will be like today.
So I think a lot of people, and unfortunately a majority of them are men, are unsatisfied or angry with the status quo. And just like before Hitler became chancellor there was an organization of street brawlers called the SA, the muscle of the party, which had to be disbanded as a price to pay for admittance to ruling the state post 1933, I think the status quo miscalculates the potential for men (because it's usually mostly men lol) to take what happened in the UK '24 and make that the new normal.
Being thrown in the slammer has its benefits for radicals. More likely than not (in the current political climate) thats 3 years of being bitter, lifting weights with others like you (not to mention all the violent encounters). Its similar to how gangs recruit using prisons. The moustashe man wrote his book in prison, lenin spent 3 years in siberia.
Seems like the conservatives should all seek out an area that can be easily defended. Elect conservatives and be self sufficient. Let the rest of the country destroy itself. It’s the only chance at long term survival that I can see.
I worked in Holland surrounded by Germans for several years. European politics are extremely narrow, especially Germany. "When Germans have internalized an ideology, they remain loyal to it - until the total collapse." -- a very accurate summary. And their conception of history makes everyday Europeans are allergic to anything even remotely nationalistic or right-wing. A Yankee comparison: for middle-class Germans, AfD is the KKK and Alice Weidel is David Duke in drag. And that's probably understates it slightly.
"Given the danger mass immigration poses to women, it’d make sense for them to vote for parties that say they plan on doing something about it."
We're seeing this everywhere: educated feminists trying to destroy the very civilization that makes feminist education possible. It's illogical, but they're all woke postmodernists and "logic is white supremacy". I just used Thomas Cole's Desecration of Empire in one of my articles recently -- https://tinyurl.com/33xm8b96 A breakdown of civilization is uniquely bad for women. Yet Western feminists will keep demanding deconstruction of their own civilization until they end up like that poor girl in the lower center (well, with torn jeans and pink hair and a dozen piercings instead of a white dress.)
Bottom line: Germany is lost. I say that from personal experience and from demography. Has Michel Houllebecq's Submission has been translated into German?
Finally, the political gender divide appears to be universal among industrialized countries at this point and bodes VERY ill for our long term survival. In 20 years, we may all be S. Korea.
At least south korea has the homogenous society needed to recover. Even if it is very painful.
Germany has two elections to go to select nationalism and a German governance. 8 years and I'm being optimistic. Screw the green crap and multikulti. Embrace your heritage and defend it.