Looking Down The Barrel Of The Fourth Turning

The same way traditional values will make a comeback, the strong men created by the hard times will create good times again.

Neil Howe

Are you sick of hearing about the Fourth Turning? If you are, well, too bad, because I’m not!

In all seriousness, I keep talking about the Fourth Turning because it really is the narrative of our times. The term has a negative connotation, but narratives are merely the way human society understands the world. Narratives are bad when rooted in falsehoods, but they can be useful when rooted in fact. The Fourth Turning is as certain of a prediction of the future as any, deserving greater public exposure. I’m doing my part to ensure the theory reaches as wide an audience as possible.

A few weeks ago, scholar Neil Howe appeared on the PBD Podcast, hosted by its namesake, Patrick Bet-David, to discuss the Fourth Turning. It was a fascinating discussion, supported well by the host’s excellent, engaging questions.

You can watch the entirety of the interview here:

It’s a long one, at over an hour long. But it’s worth your time if you want to better understand what the Fourth Turning is and, more important, what Howe sees coming up the line. Though I hope you watch the interview in its entirety, I found it so intriguing, I wanted to summarize Howe’s key points and offer my analysis of it.

You’ll Never See It Coming

It’s a point I’ve raised time and time again, but I want everyone to know those more knowledgeable and wiser see the same thing:

Another point I’ve raised is that anything and everything under the sun will happen on a long enough timeline. So it doesn’t mean anything to say that anything can happen at any moment just because you never see disaster coming. None of us anticipate we’re going to witness a car accident today, but we all know we’re going to at some point within the next year or two. The keys are: what are the general trends our society is moving along? Where does society today fit into established historical cycles?

It may have been unreasonable to say the U.S. was headed for civil war back in the 1990s, which was actually something of a talking point within right-wing circles back then. That was still during the Third Turning, so based on historical cycles, it just wasn’t a likely outcome then. However, in the 2020s, we’ve been through a myriad of destabilizing and, more importantly, divisive, crises, plus we’re now 80 years removed from the end of the last Fourth Turning. We have a convergence of social trends and historical cycles, hence, it’s more reasonable to predict civil war today than it was 30 years ago.

It’s important not to confuse “we didn’t see it coming” with “there were no warning signs.” They aren’t the same thing. There are always warning signs. It’s just that most people don’t see them or outright ignore them for one reason or another. Those who do see the warning signs and sound the alarm are typically dismissed. Bosnian War survivor Selco Begovic speaks of an uncle who tried warning everyone of impending disaster, but wasn’t listened to. “We didn’t see it coming” just means that civil war always seems impossible until it actually happens. All disasters in life exist only in the abstract until they really happen. It’s just how it is.

If you’re one of those, like me, sounding the alarm today, expect to be ignored by most, including your loved ones. Don’t take it personally. You’re one of millions throughout history whose warnings were ignored.

Traditional Values Will Return

I found this to be his most interesting argument. Howe believes, at the end of the Fourth Turning, that American society will revert to more traditional values, because it always happens at the end of every Fourth Turning.

Watch him explain:

Howe says that society, at the end of a Fourth Turning, possesses a newfound appreciation for order, re-orienting themselves in that direction. This doesn’t mean society is completely orderly, not necessarily. There may be aftershocks, along with a large percentage of the population which opposes the new regime. However, a decisive majority is in favor of establishing order. And why wouldn’t they? After seeing what disorder brings, the last thing people want is more of it. This suggests a much harder line against crime and anti-social behavior in general. It could put America back on the road to becoming a safe, high-trust society, or it could just make Americans far less tolerant of deviancy, while violence levels remain high and trust remains low. Either way, “live and let live,” “mind yo’ own biz-nass,” all of that will be exchanged in favor of enforcing norms and rules, the kind which make civil living possible.

With this newfound appreciation for order comes conventionality. He doesn’t use the term “conservative,” perhaps due to its political connotation, but this seems to be the suggestion. He points to the way people dressed following World War II as opposed to how they dressed during the 1920s, which had become more flamboyant, owing to the greater liberalism of the decade. War and revolution, any instance of large-scale violence, has a way of restoring social order. You saw this even when the Bolsheviks took power following the Russian Revolution. It doesn’t even need to be a war/revolution, either - Fernando “Ferfal” Aguirre talked about how it became more difficult to be openly LGBTQ+ after the Argentine economy collapsed in 2002.

What does this say about the future of “Wokeness,” the far-left, culturally Marxist ideology dominating American life today? If traditional values prevail in the end, and leftism today constitutes a wholesale repudiation of traditional values, doesn’t it suggest a defeat of Wokeness? In fact, wouldn’t it mean the Left loses? Perhaps. No matter who wins, it could also be that the war/revolution enforces traditionalism because non-traditional ways of living cannot survive first contact with harsh reality, let alone exist outside a civilizational context. Going back to the example of Russia, the Soviet Union was, socially, a conservative society, despite being politically the most far-left regime that ever held power in history. As a war or revolution is a virtual certainty, so much of the social insanity we see today will become unsustainable. To quote Selco Begovic again, gender roles were settled within a few weeks following the outbreak of war. Feminism crumbles in the face of violence.

This doesn’t necessarily mean society will become more moral. If anything, morality plummets post-SHTF. The difference is that society will come to value traditional morality once again, whereas today it’s being largely rejected or considered just one among many different value systems. There’s always something of an inverse correlation when it comes to morality: it’s easier to appreciate rules when everyone’s breaking them, harder to appreciate rules when they’re strictly enforced. Howe also says greater equality follows the Fourth Turning, though he appears to be speaking primarily in economic terms. After all, war/revolution are expensive, inflation always comes along for the ride, suggesting the rich will, like it or not, need to learn to do with less. In a separate interview, Howe characterizes inflation as a form of “burden sharing.” Living standards may fall, but it’ll come with the benefit of not having such a wide gulf between rich and poor.

Finally, coming along with a return to conventionality is the return of community. America is an atomized, hyper-individualist society and it seems like every crisis has deepened these characteristics. However, a civilization-threatening crisis like war or revolution makes an atomized, hyper-individualistic existence impossible. We’re going to discover the hardest way imaginable that we actually need each other quite a bit, we need to know our neighbors, and, more importantly in my view, that we can’t always choose who are our allies are. Part of community-based living is that you need to put aside your personal preferences in the interest of the collective good. It is what it is and when your survival depends on it, I don’t think you’ll be complaining about it.

If you’re a traditionalist, according to Howe, the next five to 15 years will be a great time for you. Maybe even religion will make a comeback - 15 years from now, we’ll be knocking on the door of the 2040s, a decade where scholars like Eric Kaufmann and Rob Henderson believe a fifth “Great Awakening” will occur. All this points to more conservative times to come. Perhaps, eventually, social values will shift in a more individualist, more permissive direction once again and the cycle will repeat itself. But that’s a whole different lifetime.

Politics Divides Us More Than Anything Else

I suppose, in the end, all divides are political, but in other countries, the divides are rooted in inter-ethnic or inter-tribal conflict. In America, the divide is rooted in politics specifically.

Here’s Howe going into detail:

Howe notes polling showing Americans strongly prefer not to live among those who share opposing political views with them. Personally, I’ve never been too concerned about this. I believe in freedom of association and not being forced to live with people who don’t share your views is a peacekeeping measure.

The problem you run into is that people of opposing persuasions need to be able to interact and work together in public for society to function. If, say, the purple-haired barista at Starbucks decides to start spitting in the beverages of anyone they suspect to be of their opposing faction, you can see where it becomes an issue. But this sort of thing is precisely what happens to a society in conflict. Most people will try to get along despite it all, but the deeper the divides get, the more hostile relations become, many more will behave in more partisan fashion. It happened in American society many times before. We were never as united as our name suggests.

In America, the two factions - I call them “Patriots” and “Loyalists” - have unique class, cultural, racial, and social characteristics distinguishing them from each other. However, they’re ultimately political coalitions. The same way socially conservative residents of foreign origin support the Democratic Party and irreligious libertarians support the Republican Party, Americans will choose sides not only on the basis of personal politics, but also on the basis of geography, social ties, occupation, and lifestyles. Some places will see a higher concentration of people on one side over the other. Having friends of an opposing political persuasion will become unthinkable. Talking politics today is already dangerous, but it’ll likely become lethally so in the years to come. Keeping your mouth shut about politics will become a survival strategy, literally.

And if there’s anyone who still thinks so, no, not choosing sides isn’t an option. Not in a civil war. Like in a prison, you’ll have to choose sides because nobody can survive on their own. The unfortunate truth is that many of us will be unpleasantly surprised by who in our lives end up on which side.

Peaceful Separation Isn’t An Option

In the same preceding clip, Howe says there’s no example in history where a country as old as the U.S. separates peacefully. I’ve had many arguments with people within my faction about this. There are many who believe that if enough states rise up in defiance of Washington, it’s possible to manage a tranquil separation, what’s popularly come to be known as “National Divorce.” I suppose in theory it’s possible, but again, as Howe says, the historical record shows no such instance where it did. Patrick Bet-David agrees there’s no way anyone will be allowed to just walk off with parts of the country.

Think: why would the Regime, even in a weakened state, ever agree to a split? It’d destroy its legitimacy overnight. It makes no sense, which is probably why a peaceful separation never occurs. Those charged with holding a political arrangement together by force have a vested interest in not permitting anyone to walk away without trying to make them stay. Anyone who thinks a big enough rebellion will intimidate the Regime into acquiesing isn’t being serious. The only way this might happen is if that rebellion managed to seize power, but not when it comes to taking parts of the country away from those in charge.

Perhaps after a long period of war, the two sides may end up negotiating a truce where a national divorce does occur. Or, as in the case of the former Yugoslavia, a stronger outside power intervenes and enforces a separation between warring parties. Notice, however, that the common thread is armed conflict. No matter how you slice it, war is inevitable. It needs to happen before any alternative enters the picture. Either one side prevails over the other, or they fight their way to a separation.

Some of us might think we’re willing to risk death for our freedom. Maybe some of us are. But it doesn’t always mean there will be much left to build upon once it’s over. Sometimes, separation just leads to more conflict, with smaller states having to fight even harder for their survival. Note that the break-up of Yugoslavia led to wars in all its successor states, even if the separation was mostly peaceful. The Soviet Union’s collapse was also mostly peaceful, yet Russia was fighting a separatist Chechnya within four years. There’s no such thing as a peaceful dissolution or secession.

Be careful what you wish for.

Hang Tough: Good Times Will Return

The same way traditional values will make a comeback, the strong men created by the hard times will create good times again.

Howe talk about it here:

Howe is more optimistic than I am. I think he’s ignoring some significant differences in America today with America in the past. He mentions in a different part of the conversation the high approval ratings George W. Bush attained post-9/11 despite the contentious manner in which he won the 2000 election. However, what we saw in 2020 is a better indication of what to expect during the Fourth Turning.

Even if an external conflict occurred, even if the U.S. came under foreign attack, you’d likely see a fracturing of our society. Demographically, we’re just not the same and the oikophobia animating American culture today is too powerful. Patriotic sentiment is at all-time low, meaning nobody on either side is really chomping at the bit to fight for this country. We are full of people who identify as Americans only in administrative terms, while their more primal identity is associated with ancestry, race, even sexual orientation. America has never been a true nation, but we’re definitely in a post-national moment.

While I agree that some sort of mass mobilization will occur, I think it’ll be two sides mobilizing against each other, though not in the industrial sense. I find it odd that Howe thinks the U.S. will manage to unite in the face of crisis despite also believing that a civil war is in the cards. Perhaps he means following the resolution of the conflict, Americans will manage to unite and mobilize towards re-building the country and making long-term investments for the future. But first, someone has to win the war, or the conflict needs to be resolved in some fashion. Perhaps averting civil war and restoring order, something which requires great leadership, is what’s going to end up uniting us.

One thing interesting that Howe does point out is that society is increasingly trending towards greater collectivism, if only in sentiment. Perhaps hyper-individualism has exceeded the point of diminishing returns and people are seeing the need for us all to act in unison for the common good. Unfortunately, this points to more authoritarian times to come and it may not be for the better. Yet, to get us out of the crisis, to fight a society-threatening war, strong governance will be required. There’s just no other way. If the Left continues on its totalitarian path, only an authoritarian response from the Right will stop it. The only question is whether America dispenses with its founding principles in the process. I think it’s less likely to occur if the Right wins and democracy is more likely to survive in that case, though possibly in a diminished form, as mass democracy is proving itself to be a colossal failure.

All that said, hard times don’t last forever. It’s something I’ve hinted at in the past, but I’m actually quite bullish about America’s prognosis for the remainder of the 21st century. It’s just that I think the next 10 to 15 years will be a rough time and, unfortunately, many lives will be lost in the process. So while I don’t see us coming together the way we did for World War II, I do think, like at the end of the American Revolution, we’ll pick up the pieces and carry on once more. Strong leadership will help the country recover from the events of the Fourth Turning and war, terrible as it is, will forge leaders, restore order to social relations and values, and fortifies bonds, just as easily as it breaks them.

The good times are too far down the road to talk about in great detail. But maybe the reason war/revolution is coming is because every society, like it or not, needs such things to happen on a cyclical basis to avoid falling apart completely. Of course, what specifically happens during these events matter and there’s no guarantee the next war or revolution will make America whole again. It may not. But present trends cannot be sustained indefinitely. Whatever comes to pass, we have to weather the storm once more to find out what becomes of us. We have no choice.

Once more, I strongly recommend you watch the entire interview. Neil Howe is truly one of the most important thinkers of our time and the Fourth Turning is certainly the narrative of our time. I wager that after you finish watching this interview, you’ll want to watch another. And another. All to see how deep the rabbit hole goes.

Here’s another recommended interview. In the last section, he expands on his thoughts about inflation and how Americans are growing closer to their families, an interesting positive observation amid an overall crisis-ridden society:

Is The Future Predictable? Or Is The Past No Longer Prologue?

What are your thoughts on Neil Howe’s observations? Is there anyone among my readers who don’t think we’re in a Fourth Turning or reject the theory altogether? Do you think traditional values will make a comeback in the next generation? Do you think good times will return in our lifetimes? Are you more or less optimistic about the future than Howe?

Let’s talk about it in the comments.

Max Remington writes about armed conflict and prepping. Follow him on Twitter at @AgentMax90.

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