I too watched the entire interview (I’m a PBD fan so it wasn’t a tall ask 😉). I understand Neil’s elaborate reasoning which in a sense is simplistically summarized by “History repeats itself”, but there is a conspicuously overlooked ingredient in this cycle - illegal immigration. I’m afraid we may be closer to Rome facing the barabarian hordes than post-Civil War Lincoln calling for reconciliation of an American brotherhood. We are in uncharted territory (at least from an American history perspective). My two cents.
That's a fair, important point. I don't believe we're going to emerge from the next civil war anywhere near as united as we were in the past. I think the term "consensus" is more useful - all Americans, the far-left aside, is going to want a restoration of order, rule of law, etc. That said, I think a significant opposition movement will exist for a long time. I always believed that after the civil war ends, the U.S. would still end up waging a longer-term, low-intensity conflict. Think of how after La Violencia ended, the Colombian conflict kicked off within a decade and is still ongoing today. Or how even after Chechen resistance was put down, Russia still deals with problematic Muslim separatists years later.
I also think crime will be high when the civil war ends and it'll take many years for it to come down. Ironically, the lingering atmosphere of disorder will deeply entrench right-wing sentiments. America's going to be a very conservative country going into the 2050s.
I see the return to traditional strong values coming back in a major way. You can already tell many people’s politics by their physiognomy and dress, but inside it’s even more stark in contrast. Many Millennials and Zoomers have seen firsthand the incredible destruction wrought by removing fences for which their parents never knew their original purposes until it was too late. Countless parents in these generations know personally what divorce did to them when they were young. Countless fathers are looking at their sons and not wanting them to endure the demoralizing PowerPoint HR dominated long houses and looking at their daughters not wanting them to turn into bimbos or Woke in college. The Kazakhstan model sounds fascinating and could work to a degree, but I think young men could still attend higher education or training while having an extended household arrangement. In a similar vein for grandparents watching the grandkids, as an aside, many of our housing woes are from the incredible high rate of divorce that doubles the demands for housing for older couples and often makes one spouse financially devastated (having to remortgage the house to pay for the divorced spouse’s new house).
Max, I must really like you. I don't do podcasts, but I ended up watching this entire interview. I've never read Howe and I like his paradigm a lot. It's a toned down version of Turchin.
The archetypes are useful. By his calendar, our current children will be either heroes or artists, which is mildly encouraging.
"Feminism crumbles in the face of violence." 100% true.
Sexual egalitarianism may well be incompatible with above-replacement birthrates. There is only one society that has accepted 2nd wave or later feminism and not dropped below replacement birthrates almost immediately: Israel. As a father of 3 girls, I don't want this to be true. I want my daughters to have every possible opportunity. But if I have to choose between sexual egalitarianism and the survival of my civilization, that's not a hard choice. Uncivilization is uniquely bad for young women, so it's a Kobayashi-Maru scenario for them.
If I can make you watch a 90-minute interview, I wonder what else I can make you do... LOL
KaiserBauch, the most underrated YouTuber, discussed the curious case of Kazakhstan. Despite modernizing, their demographics are in better shape than ever before. So much of this is rooted in culture and family structure. Kazakhs marry and have children early, but they still go to college. How? Because the grandparents care for the kids while they go off to college.
Of course, none of this is possible in the West, because you need rock-solid families that live close to each other, along with strong religious commitments. It really is a testament to the failures of Western civilization to cultivate stronger social bonds. Since I made you watch the Howe interview, I'm going to make you watch that KaiserBauch video. It's only 23 minutes long and worth your while. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxgfCH83XZI
I tweeted a few days ago that young women complain about how dangerous men are to them, but I never see young women attending personal safety classes. You'll see them in self-defense classes, but the objective is to never have to use the moves in the first place. I don't see young people in personal safety classes in general. A lot of that is just a youthful sense of invincibility, but you'd think that if women really do feel that vulnerable, they'd make time to learn how to protect themselves. The fact they don't says it all about just how vulnerable they actually feel.
Sounds like a Muslim version of Israel. Culturally but not fundamentally Muslim, the same way that Israeli Jews may go to synagogue regularly and take the Torah seriously, but few are Orthodox. They'll have a seder meal with a bunch of friends for Passover but no one's ritually sacrificing a lamb. Kazakh behavior looks like a Muslim version of the same. Islam and Judaism have never gone through an "Enlightenment", so they might be able to retain it for a while. His comments about differing clan familial structure are also interesting, remind me of Family and Civilization (which I've only rather skimmed.)
My 15 year old is taking kenpo. I went with the school that starts sparring as early as possible. I wanted practical, not combat-ballet. the "men are dangerous" mantra is still performative. It won't stay that way when SHTF though. As you said, the vast majority of people really can't see it coming until it's here.
Note, it's not just women. I'm taking a Cane-Masters class at the same dojo. I highly recommend it. A cane is a medical device and can be legally taken anywhere, even on an airplane, but given training, is a powerful and generally non-lethal weapon. It's actually illegal to challenge someone about their need for a cane. If you're going to live under a "web of petty regulations" like ADA, you might as well use it to your advantage when possible.
In general, young people aren't as concerned for their safety as they ought to be. Young men need to learn restraint and that you can't just fight everyone you run into. I zero in on young women because they show the least amount of interest in their personal safety while complaining most loudly about how unsafe the world is for them. But I agree that young people in general feel way too untouchable. I'm an old-ish Millennial and I'm often the youngest attendee in these personal safety classes.
I too watched the entire interview (I’m a PBD fan so it wasn’t a tall ask 😉). I understand Neil’s elaborate reasoning which in a sense is simplistically summarized by “History repeats itself”, but there is a conspicuously overlooked ingredient in this cycle - illegal immigration. I’m afraid we may be closer to Rome facing the barabarian hordes than post-Civil War Lincoln calling for reconciliation of an American brotherhood. We are in uncharted territory (at least from an American history perspective). My two cents.
That's a fair, important point. I don't believe we're going to emerge from the next civil war anywhere near as united as we were in the past. I think the term "consensus" is more useful - all Americans, the far-left aside, is going to want a restoration of order, rule of law, etc. That said, I think a significant opposition movement will exist for a long time. I always believed that after the civil war ends, the U.S. would still end up waging a longer-term, low-intensity conflict. Think of how after La Violencia ended, the Colombian conflict kicked off within a decade and is still ongoing today. Or how even after Chechen resistance was put down, Russia still deals with problematic Muslim separatists years later.
I also think crime will be high when the civil war ends and it'll take many years for it to come down. Ironically, the lingering atmosphere of disorder will deeply entrench right-wing sentiments. America's going to be a very conservative country going into the 2050s.
I see the return to traditional strong values coming back in a major way. You can already tell many people’s politics by their physiognomy and dress, but inside it’s even more stark in contrast. Many Millennials and Zoomers have seen firsthand the incredible destruction wrought by removing fences for which their parents never knew their original purposes until it was too late. Countless parents in these generations know personally what divorce did to them when they were young. Countless fathers are looking at their sons and not wanting them to endure the demoralizing PowerPoint HR dominated long houses and looking at their daughters not wanting them to turn into bimbos or Woke in college. The Kazakhstan model sounds fascinating and could work to a degree, but I think young men could still attend higher education or training while having an extended household arrangement. In a similar vein for grandparents watching the grandkids, as an aside, many of our housing woes are from the incredible high rate of divorce that doubles the demands for housing for older couples and often makes one spouse financially devastated (having to remortgage the house to pay for the divorced spouse’s new house).
Max, I must really like you. I don't do podcasts, but I ended up watching this entire interview. I've never read Howe and I like his paradigm a lot. It's a toned down version of Turchin.
The archetypes are useful. By his calendar, our current children will be either heroes or artists, which is mildly encouraging.
"Feminism crumbles in the face of violence." 100% true.
Sexual egalitarianism may well be incompatible with above-replacement birthrates. There is only one society that has accepted 2nd wave or later feminism and not dropped below replacement birthrates almost immediately: Israel. As a father of 3 girls, I don't want this to be true. I want my daughters to have every possible opportunity. But if I have to choose between sexual egalitarianism and the survival of my civilization, that's not a hard choice. Uncivilization is uniquely bad for young women, so it's a Kobayashi-Maru scenario for them.
Great interview. Thanks for "making" me watch it.
If I can make you watch a 90-minute interview, I wonder what else I can make you do... LOL
KaiserBauch, the most underrated YouTuber, discussed the curious case of Kazakhstan. Despite modernizing, their demographics are in better shape than ever before. So much of this is rooted in culture and family structure. Kazakhs marry and have children early, but they still go to college. How? Because the grandparents care for the kids while they go off to college.
Of course, none of this is possible in the West, because you need rock-solid families that live close to each other, along with strong religious commitments. It really is a testament to the failures of Western civilization to cultivate stronger social bonds. Since I made you watch the Howe interview, I'm going to make you watch that KaiserBauch video. It's only 23 minutes long and worth your while. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxgfCH83XZI
I tweeted a few days ago that young women complain about how dangerous men are to them, but I never see young women attending personal safety classes. You'll see them in self-defense classes, but the objective is to never have to use the moves in the first place. I don't see young people in personal safety classes in general. A lot of that is just a youthful sense of invincibility, but you'd think that if women really do feel that vulnerable, they'd make time to learn how to protect themselves. The fact they don't says it all about just how vulnerable they actually feel.
Sounds like a Muslim version of Israel. Culturally but not fundamentally Muslim, the same way that Israeli Jews may go to synagogue regularly and take the Torah seriously, but few are Orthodox. They'll have a seder meal with a bunch of friends for Passover but no one's ritually sacrificing a lamb. Kazakh behavior looks like a Muslim version of the same. Islam and Judaism have never gone through an "Enlightenment", so they might be able to retain it for a while. His comments about differing clan familial structure are also interesting, remind me of Family and Civilization (which I've only rather skimmed.)
My 15 year old is taking kenpo. I went with the school that starts sparring as early as possible. I wanted practical, not combat-ballet. the "men are dangerous" mantra is still performative. It won't stay that way when SHTF though. As you said, the vast majority of people really can't see it coming until it's here.
Note, it's not just women. I'm taking a Cane-Masters class at the same dojo. I highly recommend it. A cane is a medical device and can be legally taken anywhere, even on an airplane, but given training, is a powerful and generally non-lethal weapon. It's actually illegal to challenge someone about their need for a cane. If you're going to live under a "web of petty regulations" like ADA, you might as well use it to your advantage when possible.
In general, young people aren't as concerned for their safety as they ought to be. Young men need to learn restraint and that you can't just fight everyone you run into. I zero in on young women because they show the least amount of interest in their personal safety while complaining most loudly about how unsafe the world is for them. But I agree that young people in general feel way too untouchable. I'm an old-ish Millennial and I'm often the youngest attendee in these personal safety classes.