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Brian Villanueva's avatar

In 2001 I was working in Holland and regularly flying back and forth. After 9./11 the US and EU approaches diverged for a while. About 2 months after 9./11 I was flying home from Amsterdam Schiphol. The security screening was standard x-ray only (no TSA yet). But at the boarding door, a phalanx of guys in SecEurope uniforms appeared. All they did was have a conversation with each person before getting on the plane. And it really was a conversation: "Did you have fun in Holland?", "How are the Lakers doing this year?" (I'm from California), "How did you and your wife meet?" They didn't care WHAT you answered; they care HOW you answered. They were profilers, and they were good -- US Customs or even Israeli-level training. My conversations were cursory; conversations with brown men traveling alone took longer. In 2 years back and forth, I only saw them refuse boarding to 1 person (I've no idea why; he didn't fit any obvious profile to me), but there was no question that their authority at that gate was absolute. That's how it's done. And it could be done that way here.

"We’re increasingly being forced to live with people who share neither our values nor way of life"

This is not inevitable. In fact, since the problem is geographic, it's easily correctable locally. A city and certainly a state could simply kick disagreeable people out: "show up here and we'll throw you in jail." A modern version of being tarred, feathered, and run out of town on a rail. What makes this impossible today 1) the Overton window; 2) federal civil rights law. #1 will change as things get worse. #2 will follow eventually.

Take the NY subway searches. Regular NYC subway riders (particularly women) are masters at picking the likely problems in any car quickly. Why can't local police officers use their own judgement to decide who to search and even kick off a train? Federal civil rights law -- we can't do that. We can't act on what everyone knows: 90% of violence on the subways is perpetrated by the obviously crazy and by young, black men. We must instead subject everyone to random searches -- TSA logic applied at a local level.

But people do notice, and as the problems gets worse, their Overton windows will shift toward more drastic (non-random, non-TSA-like) actions. Then the only thing restraining it is federal authority, which is already waning. Eventually, the national government is going to lack the financial (due to a debt crisis), the political (due to a "theologically" divided citizenry), or the physical (due to a military worried more about pronouns than performance) ability to force their will on the states. As you said at the time, the Texas border standoff is a shot across the bow of the regime. To take the subway example: a state says "our cops aren't allowing black men in hoodies or pants halfway down their asses on trains... up yours feds" and DC can't or won't stop it... that's #2 being solved. Depending on your point of view, that's also a de-facto national divorce or a rediscovery of federalism, which David Brooks suggested a few years ago may be the only thing that might save us. I am pained to credit Mr. Brooks with being correct about much, but he may be onto something there.

That's not to say it will be fun in the interval. There will be lots more intrusive and useless TSA-like solutions. There will be states that attempt more realistic ones and get shut down by the feds. There will be rampant crime that we're still not allowed to notice for a while. There will be anti-Washington protestors arrested and thrown in prison for years (ala Jan 6). Dissidents will be bankrupted and have Trump-like lawfare employed against them. There will even be governors that end up in federal prison, but by the time that happens the end is not just visible but staring us in the face.

In many respects, Washington is attempting to occupy and rule "flyover America". Forcing your rule and foreign value structure on an antagonistic population from 3000 miles away is colonialism, and it's expensive. It only makes sense when the colonized areas have something valuable you can extract (coal, diamonds, gold, slaves, etc...) Flyover America only has food. It's important, but not valuable enough to justify a colonial infrastructure. Eventually (early 2030's? maybe earlier) The ruling class will either tire of forcing its will on the masses or run out of money.

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EternalSwayze's avatar

I live in a small city near San Francisco. It gets worse up there every week.

Soon there will be nothing left to pillage there, and they'll come here more often than they already do.

But if they come to me, I've got something for them.

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