The Next 12 Months Part VI: Conflagration

We’re fully committed to this ride and we’ll just have to see where it takes us.

Will we soon need to decide what kind of Americans we are? Source A24 Films LLC

AUTHOR’S NOTE: This is the second half of The Next 12 Months Part VI. It was split into two separate essays for the sake of brevity and readability. You can check out the first half of Part VI here.

First, the new trailer for the upcoming movie Civil War, due for an April release in theaters, just dropped:

I don’t know about you, but I’m looking forward to this movie. It’s certain to be controversial and maybe the early critics are correct: it’s not a good time for a movie like this. At the same time, perhaps it’ll serve the purpose I at least hope it serves: as a warning.

In the first half of the sixth and final installment of “The Next 12 Months,” I argued that the United States is on course for another civil war. In the second half of Part VI, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of the matter. In this post, we’ll discuss when and what we can expect to unfold if the situation continues to deteriorate.

Before kicking things off, I want to stress again: I’m not predicting a civil war will no doubt occur. I hope there’s no misunderstanding. I’m just saying we’re headed in civil war’s direction. There’s still time to change course, still time for some other obstruction to get in the way. History does follow patterns, but it’s not a grand Hollywood epic, either.

Not to throw us too off track, but let’s look at the big picture for a second. Remember investor Ray Dalio’s empire life cycle?

Obviously, this is Dalio’s own simplified model and not a hard and fast rule. There’s nothing that says it needs to happen exactly like this. However, he does base his model off history. Look at the graphic, then consider what’s occurred and what’s yet to occur. At the moment, we still appear to be at or near the peak of our empire; our debt, massive as it is, has yet to bust and we’re long overdue for an economic downturn. Look further down the decline side of this model and you’ll see that revolutions and wars tend to occur after the country enters a major economic crisis which threatens the very existence of a regime.

If history is any indication, we’re a good ways off from a civil war. My estimate is five to ten years, but this is, unfortunately, just enough time for the debt bubble to burst and we’re likely to see at least one economic downturn during that time. So there’s no need to panic, but don’t get too comfortable, either. We’re already in dangerous territory and there’s no turning around, not at this point. We’re fully committed to this ride and we’ll just have to see where it takes us.

None of us want to dwell on such awful prospects. But as citizens and preppers, we need to be aware of what’s happening around us and we need to also be aware of the potential consequences. After years of dwelling on it so the rest of you didn’t have to, I think I’ve come up with a scenario for how the U.S. will go from the status quo of uneasy tranquility to a state of internal conflict/civil war, whether publicly acknowledged by the government or not.

The Path To Civil War Is Coming Into Focus

To summarize my main argument from the first half, the U.S. is headed for civil war due to an impending superpower collapse, the immigration situation, and the “Great Destabilization” all converging in a single point in time and space. When they converge is not when the civil war will occur, not necessarily. It’s when an eventual civil war will likely become inevitable. It’ll trigger a chain of events which will determine the ultimate fate of the United States of America, whether it even has a chance of surviving until mid-century, or even live long enough to see the 22nd century.

Superpower collapse alone will dramatically increase the likelihood of a debt bust and assure an economic downturn. The Regime will fight for its life, printing cash, at the risk of soaring inflation, to keep the state afloat. Meanwhile, society will have become thoroughly destabilized due to immigration, crime, racial and gender relations. As crisis after crisis hits, the violence escalates, until one day, that single moment occurs threatening to push us past the brink. We caught a glimpse of what that looks like in 2020. It should no longer be beyond to pale to consider such a scenario. Only next time, we’ll be playing for higher stakes.

If you have children and they end up having children (I know, less common these days), the coming events will decide what kind of world they’ll end up living in, or whether they’ll even have a place to call “home.”

How Alert Are Americans To The Danger?

Back to the present for a moment. I think I’ve shown enough polling data to demonstrate Americans are at least aware that civil war isn’t some far-fetched scenario. Does this translate to an understanding of how much danger the country, our entire way of life, actually is?

Here, I can only speak anecdotally. I don’t think most Americans are, concerned as they ought to be. Social media serves as an echo chamber drawing the like-minded, so it’s never going to paint an accurate picture of what most people are thinking. For the majority of Americans, politics is a peripheral matter - it’s there, but it’s not a focal point in their lives. Most of us find politics boring or would rather not get wrapped up in heated arguments about what’s happening to our country or what to do about a problem. Most of us are concerned with matters closer to home or things we enjoy. There’s a reason we call them “normies.” They not only exist in every society, they constitute the majority of society. Often, their disinterest and indifference can be maddening.

Then again, it doesn’t matter. Before 9/11, only the national security community was gravely concerned with terrorism. Prior to COVID, only the scientific community, epidemiology specifically, was thinking about the next pandemic. History demonstrates repeatedly that people harbor normalcy bias until it’s impossible to do so. So we can all take heart in the fact when it does get that bad, normies will have no choice but to get to where we are at.

For now, I think people sense that something is seriously wrong, but aren’t yet ready to conclude, as I have, that the republic or the empire is at the end of its road. Some of this is due to normalcy bias and they cannot be blamed for it; we want to continue living our lives in relative peace, according to the routines we’ve established for ourselves. There’s no reason to keep getting up daily and showing up if we all knew for certain it’d all end tomorrow. As I’ve said time and again, the only reason why society keeps humming along is because we individually all keeps the wheels turning in our own lives. I don’t expect that to change, even as the crisis kicks in.

The real problem is that most Americans are still of the belief civilization is this robust thing. It’s not. It sits atop feet of clay; that clay is cracking as we speak. Every day, we see examples of how civilization is constantly under fire; primarily from criminals and social predators, who may end up in jail, but until they do, act with near impunity. Now we have millions of illegal migrants flooding the country, bringing their lack of fear of law enforcement, contributing to the growing disorder.

Here are migrants assaulting New York City police officers at a shelter, similar to the heavily-publicized incident at Times Square:

Source

Police officers are having objects thrown at them. If any of us threw something at a police officer, we wouldn’t be eligible for government assistance or benefits. We’d be on our way to jail, on our way to losing everything we worked so hard for. Suddenly, America looks like France, a country on the verge of civil war in large part due to uncontrolled migration. Or maybe we’re the late-stage Roman Empire, on the verge of being overrun by the Goths. Whichever analogy suffices, what you saw in that video is a glimpse of the future. There are enough of them in the country to carry out a major uprising. If we couldn’t handle the Floyd rebellion in 2020 (and no, we didn’t handle it, we just let it burn out), I’m not sure we have the cops or even soldiers to deal with a revolt by millions of illegals, their sympathizers, and the criminal class.

Speaking of the Romans, what does their history say about the wisdom of allowing illegal migrants to serve in the military, gaining citizenship and benefits in the process? That’s exactly what’s on the table now. Meanwhile, the border remains open, with an unusual number of Chinese men entering the country. These people are coming from America’s primary geopolitical competitor, a country that’d benefit from our destabilization and weakening. Why are they coming here?

If that wasn’t enough, Islamist Jihadism is still very much a present threat. I anticipate it’ll return to the U.S. this decade and they won’t be coming from Africa nor the Middle East. They’re already on our side of the world, maybe already in our country.

Here’s an eye-opening briefing you can watch on your own time:

Foreign invaders are both an accelerant for and a consequence of our destabilization. They may not even be the key ingredient. Americans know everything is racially charged these days, but just how aware are they of the level of animosity already present with respect to race and religion?

Consider what, or better yet, who, we consider worthy of our collective derision:

Americans, particularly White Americans, are increasingly being forced to justify their every last action, utterances, their own existence. Perhaps demoralization efforts have been so effective, Whites will merely suffer silently (according to suicide stats, that’s exactly what’s happening). But this hardly portends peace. If anything, this means the parties pushing and benefiting from demoralization will persist in these efforts, perhaps escalate them, in either in attempt to take what they consider theirs or in a nihilistic, South Africa-like attempt to destroy and kill in the name of self-righteousness.

The coming civil war won’t be a race war, however, though it’ll definitely have racial characteristics. Here’s the thing everyone needs to understand, no matter on which side they ultimately fall: regardless of race, all Americans are at risk. Whites, being the majority, are the bigger target, the first in line. But eventually, the Regime will come for us all. We are all replaceable in the end. It doesn’t matter how well we’ve followed the rules, how much we’ve paid in taxes, our political views, or how loyal Democrats we are. Once the Regime decides we’ve outlived our usefulness, or our loyalty is no longer guaranteed, they’ll bring in someone else to take our spot. And they’ll make sure they’re much easier to control than we are. Or maybe they won’t be. Either way, we’re going to pay a heavy price for it.

This is what’s at stake. This is the great crisis of our moment. Can we overcome it? Based on everything I’ve said thus far, you ought to have an idea of where I stand. If nothing else, I’d hope Americans would all agree that civilization is a fragile thing, keeping a lid on the ugliness always lying beneath. Alongside the great crisis of the moment, the great divide of the moment is between those who take civilization for granted, which includes those committed to it’s unraveling, and those who see civilization for what it is: a thin barrier separating us from anarchy and barbarism, one that can only be preserved through violence.

We are here in large part because not enough Americans recognize the urgency of the moment. We are also here because Americans have forgotten what it takes to create a world where we and our families can wake up each morning with something else to look forward to besides fighting for our survival. It seems the time is approaching when we’ll need to learn these lessons again, the hard way.

How Much Time Do We Have?

I often observe that it’s easier to predict long-term events than short-term events. The reason is obvious: live long enough, the most unlikeliest of events will inevitably occur. With regards to the fate of the U.S., my long-term prognosis is actually quite positive, a discussion we’ll need to table for some other time. But my short-term prognosis, as you ought to have concluded by now, is negative. Very much so.

It’s beyond the scope of this piece anyway, but I couldn’t even begin to tell you when we passed the point of no return. It might’ve been as long ago as 30 years. It might’ve been before most of us were born. It doesn’t really matter at this point, just as it doesn’t matter what’s going to be 100 years from now. As preppers, we prepare for the future, but we first and foremost prepare for not only what’s most likely to occur, what’s going to happen sooner rather than later. Furthermore, the demoralization is such a part of our social fabric and there exists nothing capable of halting destabilization, that there’s no turning back the tide any longer.

For the purposes of our discussion, let’s assume 2024 to 2025 will be a crisis period, likely to culminate in the political collapse of the U.S. as a superpower. Depending how quickly the country unravels in the wake of this tremendous shift, the civil war or revolution can happen anytime in the proceeding five to ten years. Consider the following a broad timeline of how America’s spiral into internal conflict will occur:

• 2024 - 2025: Crisis

• 2025 - 2027: Adjustment

• 2027 - 2028: Revolution

• 2028-?: America Divided

So no, we don’t have a lot of time. We’re talking at least four years to prep for what’s to come. With the timeline established, we’ll delve into what each stage looks like.

2024 - 2025: Crisis

The collapse of the American superpower, as first predicted by Dr. Alfred W. McCoy in 2010, occurs during this time. It’s going to happen regardless of who wins the 2024 election, but how hard of a landing it’s going to be depends on how crazy the election ends up being. If Donald Trump or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. wins the election, you can expect a harder landing, as their generally nationalistic aims will be at tremendous odds with the Regime’s explicitly globalist aims.

The Regime, effectively the “conservatives” in this stage of our empire life cycle, will not take the death of the superpower well, and will kick and scream on their way down as American relevance vanishes in a flash. Even if a nationalistic, radical right-wing regime manages to firmly establish control of Washington, a loudly unilateral tack is still likely to fall on the deaf world ears.

By the end of 2025, few will perceive the U.S. to be running the world, let alone its own affairs.

2025 - 2027: Adjustment

As with all bouts of instability and unrest, the craziness of 2024 to 2025 eventually dies down, if only momentarily, with Americans forced to adapt to a new normal. The impact of the end of the superpower era for the U.S. is still a ways away from being fully felt. If it hasn’t already, the economy will enter a recession during this time, exacerbated by a global energy crisis which will ravage the world economy. The economy will be at the center of everyone’s attention and whomever is president will catch tremendous heat for the downturn.

Despite it all, normalcy prevails over chaos, but like before, the hard feelings are merely tucked away while everyone waits and sees how it all shapes out. A heated 2026 mid-term election briefly turns up the temperature and more people are loudly voicing their grievances than ever before. Radicals are becoming the majority, the so-called “moderates” are quickly becoming a minority.

2027 - 2028: Revolution

America approaches 2028 with a mix of anticipation and dread. The 2028 Summer Olympics are taking place in Los Angeles, but so will another presidential election. America is no longer a “shining city on a hill” and nobody’s sure whether the Summer Games will signal a rebirth for the country or prove it once and for all to be a spent force. Both sides are gearing up to make the 2028 election the year to “correct” the results of the last one; everyone agrees this is the one which will show what kind of country the U.S. will be entering the new decade.

By now, rampant crime, disorder, and unrest are obvious to all, with the discourse now having shifted entirely to upon whom to lay blame. Racial tensions are now reaching a fever pitch, with anti-White rhetoric specifically creating a South Africa-like atmosphere in America. Social trust is at an all-time low, confidence in the institutions have bottomed out, unemployment the biggest election issue. Everyone retreats to their own corners, trying to isolate themselves from the chaos the best they can, but there are few places left to escape to. Then, it happens.

“The Incident,” as we’ll call it, with either political, racial, religious, or any combination of overtones, occurs. Left-wing partisans, including politicians, all but call for an uprising against “fascism” and “White supremacy,” their usual suspects. In an already-heated atmosphere, a state of severe anarcho-tyranny transforms into a state of near-total anarchy in an instant. Riots, the largest in American history, break out from coast-to-coast, even in previously tranquil towns. A coalition of leftist activists, criminals, general hell-raisers, and illegal migrants, now numbering in the millions, take to the streets, attempting to overwhelm authorities or simply in a nihilistic display of brute power. This is the SHTF and it finally happens.

On the other side, armed citizens band together, some forming community self-defense groups, and hold the line. After a week of intense rioting, the active-duty military finally gets into the act and begins deploying to the streets, but by then, the damage has been done. There’s little choice but to let the fire burn itself out. The Incident will divide the public even further, causes a split in the government, and at its worst, brings America to the brink of civil war.

2028-?: America Divided

Fortunately, like all fires, the SHTF burns out. Though unrest will continue in certain parts of the country for the remainder of the year, order is mostly restored. Americans opt for normalcy once again and try getting on with the hard task of living. Incredibly, some insist on forgetting everything that happened, focusing instead of “unity” and “common ground,” and cleaning up the mess left by the rioters. But by now, well-defined lines are drawn in the sand. There’s not a single person paying attention who believes there exists any common ground or unity any longer. In their place is instead bitterness and hatred.

The factions in the U.S internal conflict are now clearly delineated and everyone has more or less chosen a side, whether they realize it or not. Anyone still on the fence will be forced to decide. The three (yes, three) factions which have emerged from the ruins of a once-great civilization are:

• The Left: This is the radical left, the middle-to-lower strata of the leftist coalition, the racial minorities, militants like Antifa, the criminal class, and illegal migrants. They also include many of America’s young. For the second time in a decade, they’ve proven the damage and terror they’re capable of inflicting. Their demands are ever greater, ever more outlandish. Reparations, wealth re-distribution, all sorts of free stuff, everything is being called for now. Or else.

• The Regime: The same way you see the leftist coalition splitting today over the Israel-Hamas conflict, the split will deepen in the wake of The Incident, as the Regime now fears it’s losing control of the situation. It’s comprised, by this point, with middle-to-upper strata leftists, constituting the leadership/managerial class, including at major institutions, and have the loyalty of top military leadership. They still swear by Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) as their core values, liberal civic nationalism, and maintain a globalist outlook, even as the superpower days recede into the past. They face the prospect of becoming the “ancien régime,” with a difficult choice to make. They can either give into the Left’s demands, establishing total state and social supremacy with the Democratic Party forming the centerpiece of de facto a one-party state. Or, they can do the unthinkable: make a deal with the Right, deter the revolutionary Left, and at least maintain a more peaceful, orderly status quo. It’ll need to share power with the Right, but the Left will maintain the upper hand, temporarily, anyway.

• The Right: The largest faction by virtue of the Left’s split with the Regime, the Right has become radicalized, forming a broad coalition defined by fierce nationalism, populism, nativism, anti-establishment sentiment, and libertarianism. Their core are Heartlanders, Middle Americans, along with many in the major metros dismayed by what’s become of the country. They are heavily armed, owing to their belief in the Second Amendment, many forming local militias and self-defense groups. Despite the media’s attempts to paint them all as White supremacists, they’re quite racially diverse, though far from the Left’s “rainbow coalition.” Many of the law enforcement and military rank-and-file are sympathetic to the Right, despite leadership being loyal to the Regime.

Society manages along these dividing lines in an uneasy, untenable arrangement. Something of an informal apartheid society emerges, though it manifests at very low levels - certain neighborhoods are firmly leftist neighborhoods, some businesses explicitly discouraging those with right-wing sympathies from patronizing their establishment. Gun stores do the same, discouraging leftists from buying guns. Churches in leftist areas are abandoned, children pulled from public schooling.

Still, everyone tries to manage, while steeling themselves for what’s to come. For one, what will the Regime decide? Will they make amends with the Left? Come to a rapprochement with the Right? Or will they do nothing at all?

It All Comes Down To This

First, let’s summarize what we have so far. We’ll look outside our own country for a model with which we can more easily outline the events previously described.

In spring 2021, days after retired French military officers and active-duty servicemembers penned letters warning of impending civil war in their own country, an active-duty French Army officer speaking anonymously on a Telegram channel. The interview is long, but a must-read. You’re not going to get a more in-depth run-down of the situation in France than you will from this army officer. The most important and most relevant part of the interview was when he was asked to speculate how a civil war would break out in his country. I think his model is applicable to the scenario I’ve formulated as well.

Extensive wargaming on his part, along with his fellow soldiers, leads him to conclude any civil war in France will unfold in three phases [bold mine]:

• First the phase of riots or quasi war.

• Then the transition phase.

• Finally, the final phase, which corresponds either to a definitive appeasement, or to a political solution of apartheid, or to a total war.

In all the scenarios we have studied over the last 5 years, we have always found these different phases and this particular model: ultra-violent riots, a transition phase, a final phase. It is the transition phase that is the most crucial in this pattern, because it is during this phase that everything will be played out.

It’s for that reason that I’m not going to get into what comes after the final phase. For one, it’s too far into the future, and while I’ll likely one day write a piece about what the 2030s holds in store, it’s not particularly relevant to our moment. By that point, we’ve closed the book on one era and will be opening another. More importantly, the French Army officer is correct: it’s in the transition phase where choices leading to the ultimate outcome in the final phase will be made.

We’ve had the quasi-war - The Incident in the 2027 to 2028 timeframe. This, not the civil war, is the most immediate threat we face in the next five years. Even if the civil war doesn’t happen, the quasi-war most likely will. The 2020 Floyd rebellion was, in some ways, a quasi-civil war, so we have a taste of what that’s like. The next one is likely to be worse.

The transition phase is where the three sides enter the picture in stark relief, where the proverbial lines in the sand are clearly drawn. It’s also here America makes one last attempt at establishing order under the old system, as the superpower era fades fast. Again, here the decision will be made whether America will continue to exist through the mid-21st century and in what form. The next stage will merely be a formal recognition of that choice.

So here we are - the final phase. There are three broad outcomes I think we can reasonably anticipate, each of which can result from any number of choices made by the three sides during the transition phase:

• Status Quo: Civil war doesn’t break out, with everyone settling into a society defined by its new divisions. Regardless of whether the Regime sides with the Left or comes to an accommodation with the Right, it amounts to a victory for the Regime, the only difference being the degree. They get their multicultural mass democracy, assuring Democratic de facto single-party state rule, for a time, anyway. Being an American becomes strictly an administrative identity. In many ways, America becomes like Britain and France of today: diverse, lacking unity, a dwindling White majority, and in a permanent state of decline.

• Devolution/National Divorce: Most likely to happen if the Regime does nothing, the federal government loses much of its legitimacy. The resulting pockets of power are filled by the states. This is hardly a peaceful outcome, as what was supposed to be a nationwide conflict instead unfolds at much lower levels. Long-term, this could lead to the U.S. reverting to a much stricter form of federalism or even becoming a confederation. At worst, it could lead to the often-evoked “national divorce,” effectively ending the union as it’s stood since the first American Civil War.

• Civil War: Tensions degenerate into open warfare. This war can take many forms, with lower-intensity conflict being the most likely form, and higher-intensity conflict much less likely. The lower the intensity, the longer the war will go on. The higher intensity, the shorter the war will be, but the more devastating the consequences. Either way, the war is likely to result in dissolution of the union or result in an inconclusive outcome. Even if the union manages to stick together, what results will be a far cry from what the U.S. used to be. What follows will more resemble Brazil or South Africa.

What do I think will happen? I can’t be certain; there’s too much history to cover between now and then. But I’ll still offer my hypothesis, anyway.

I think the U.S. avoids a knock-out, drag-out civil war. However, it doesn’t avoid armed conflict. By 2030, the U.S. is embroiled in what history will term the “Great American Internal Conflict.” It’ll last a generation, maybe longer. It’ll be defined primarily by high crime and disorder, a more intense and widespread variant of what we’re seeing today. Unrest will be more common, with increasing acts of politically-motivated violence, including terrorism. The term “fourth-generation warfare” (4GW) is a more accurate descriptor of what we’ll be facing rather than “civil war” or “revolution.” At it’s simplest, 4GW is war among the people, primarily involving non-state actors rather than between states or even between states and non-state actors.

In some places, such as the Mountain West region, the conflict will take on civil war-like characteristics, with control of territory at stake. Left-wing militants and right-wing militias will clash regularly with authorities. For the most part, however, the Great American Internal Conflict will be marked by low-intensity conflict, a struggle between the Left - committed to the complete South Africa-like unraveling of the U.S. - and the Right - struggling to find order amid the chaos - and the Regime, committed only to its own survival, unsure on day-to-day basis which of the two sides will be a better guarantor of its continue existence.

There is inevitably a conclusion to this conflict. For the purposes of this discussion, I won’t get into it here, but the way to look at the internal conflict, civil war, whatever comes to pass, is as a bridge between the America we’ve known and the America we’ll become. The latter is a question whose answer will remain unknown for years to come.

I’ll conclude the speculating with this: by 2030, we will have waged a quasi-civil war which will either wake everyone up, once and for all, to the existential nature of our crisis, while also hardening the divisions in our society to an irreparable degree. That much is certain. As for widespread armed conflict, if it doesn’t occur by mid-century, as far as we’re concerned, it’ll never happen, and we can more or less expect the status quo to prevail, interrupted by the occasional crisis which seems to portend calamity, only for normalcy to reign again.

What To Expect In 2024

With our trip to the future complete, let’s return to the present. As preppers, one thing we don’t do is get too ahead of ourselves. We’ll need to get through 2024 to get to 2028 and beyond, anyhow. What’s going to happen this year?

Since the situation at the Texas-Mexico border seems to have de-escalated (for now) I can confidently revert back to my original projection for the year: I don’t expect to see the U.S. to be embroiled in civil war 12 months from now. However, if tensions don’t seem high enough at the moment, trust me, we’ll at least be back at January 2021 levels of hostility come January 2025, if not worse.

In my view, it’s not even what happens in 2024 that matters. As I alluded earlier, I sense a strange sense of public detachment on the part of the public. Nobody, outside the thirty-some percent of Americans who are committed Democrats, seems happy with life under Joe Biden. Yet nobody’s too excited about the return of Donald Trump, either, outside the MAGA base. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, we’re not going to war over the outcome of this election. I can see why some feel that way, but the line that divides Americans isn’t going to be between those who support Biden and those who support Trump. It’d be unfortunate if that were the case; I can’t see any upside in shedding blood over either one of those men.

Much of The Next 12 Months has concerned what to expect in 2024, so I don’t think there’s anything more to say that I haven’t said already. I’ll just add this: don’t get too wrapped up in this year’s events - the most consequential decisions aren’t made during an election, they’re made beyond public view, with many of these decisions still yet to be made.

As Ray Dalio’s empire life cycle model demonstrates, there’s also still a lot of events that need to happen before civil war really enters the picture. Yes, we can see it coming. Yes, there doesn’t seem to be any stopping it. But until it happens, remember this entire discussion is conjecture. I wouldn’t talk about it unless I felt strongly this was a risk we’ll have to face at some point in the future, but with respect to the next 12 months, this is a time for observing and orienting. Deciding and acting will come later.

What Do We Do?

I often remark that high-risk scenarios like civil war are impossible to prepare for. I still maintain this position, though I should clarify that this doesn’t mean you cannot prepare for them at all. It’s just that it’s difficult to prepare specifically for them and your preps for something so devastating are likely to be inadequate.

Still, you can always do something. None of us are truly ready for our own deaths, yet we know it’s going to happen to all of us. Hence, we buy life insurance, write up wills, etc. Then we go about living our lives. When it comes to civil war, the same approach suffices.

Here are some fundamental things you can do to prepare for the wild future that awaits us:

1. Create An Emergency Plan: It shouldn’t take a civil war to come up with an emergency plan. Even if you live by yourself, you need to have some idea of what you’re going to do in an SHTF that doesn’t involve “Do as the government says.” You should have an emergency plan for all sorts of contingencies, as well: fire, natural disasters, death in the family, etc. If nothing else, it’ll get you out of mental paralysis when SHTF does occur. We want to avoid the “OMG, what do I do?” mindset.

2. Know What’s Happening: No, don’t live online, don’t become a news junkie. But don’t completely tune out current events, either. Have a good idea what the big happenings of the moment are. Know what’s going on where you live, most of all. Get on apps like NextDoor to see the news that goes unreported. You may be surprised at what you see. None of us want to be known as “Karen,” but face it - in the future, being a Karen will become a survival strategy.

3. Meet Your Neighbors: At least, don’t be strangers to them. I suppose it’s never too late to meet them, but the SHTF is also the least ideal time to do so. Contrary to conventional wisdom, strangers don’t come together in times of crisis. It may not happen immediately, but eventually, we distance ourselves from them, draw harder boundaries, and batten down the hatches. It’s not because humans are bad, it’s because we’re products of evolution and such behaviors constitute a survival instinct. You will, however, draw yourself closer to those you know. Having that community in place pre-SHTF will pay off when the balloon does go up.

4. Study, Train: Aside from stocking up on supplies, the best way to prep is to become knowledgeable and proficient in the craft of prepping. In addition to learning how to filter water through YouTube videos, go out and get certified in CPR, First Aid, and take a Stop the Bleed course. With skills and stuff, you become an asset to yourself, your family, and your community. Speaking of which, you can always meet like-minded people at classes. You may never see them again once class is over, but you can take comfort in knowing there are those just like you out there, all over.

5. Personal > Political: I can’t stress this enough. The civil war waits for no one, but sometimes, it’ll need to take a back seat to problems closer to home. Don’t let the SHTF force you to neglect your personal issues. You’re not a soldier; your first priority is to yourself and your family. We prep not so we can become fierce guerrilla warriors, we prep so we can take care of ourselves and our loved ones through the hard times. Never lose sight of why we prep.

Last word on the prepping aspect: even in the worst of civil wars, life goes on. Many out there are waiting for the country to turn into a “Mad Max” wasteland with bands of roving warlords, the cities turned to rubble. I’m sure in some timeline out in the universe, that could happen. But ask yourself: how do you prepare for that? The answer: you can’t. Anyone who tells you it’s possible to prepare for TEOTWAWKI (The End Of The World As We Know It) is selling you a raw deal.

We prep to keep on living. Anything else is missing the point.

Dark Times Are Ahead. So Try Not To Worry About it.

This was some heavy subject matter, I know. It’s hard to believe, four years from now, America will look like the teetering-on-the-brink dystopia as I’ve described. On second thought, I should’ve titled this entry “The Next Four Years.”

And yes, there was some creative license involved. I’m making predictions, after all. But once more, I wouldn’t have said any of this if I didn’t feel there existed a good chance of events unfolding the way I’ve laid out. My personal prediction implies a better outcome than many of the other scenarios, so there’s also plenty of wishful thinking involved. Don’t hold it against me; if we’re going to discuss our demise, I’d rather it end the nicest way imaginable. My product is “Hopeful Doomerism,” after all.

At the same time, I’m perfectly aware none of this could happen as I’ve described. Four years from now, we might still be predicting civil war in the next five to ten years. It wouldn’t be the first time someone like me has predicted the end, only to be off the mark. The thought to mind a question I’m certain many of us have asked ourselves more than once: I’m not sure what’s more worrisome - the thought that this could all lead to some kind of blow-up, or that it never will.

I still don’t have an answer. This is where we look to those who’ve lived it to get an idea of how to think about it, if not arrive at an answer. Most Americans have never lived through civil war or collapse, so there are limits to us, myself included, speculating on what it’d be like, what’s better or worse. It’s just hasn’t been reality for us. Even military veterans who’ve served in war-torn theaters have something of superficial understanding of what it’s like to really live it.

One of my go-to voices in the prepping community is Fabian Ommar. A Brazilian native, he’s spent his entire life in a slow-burn SHTF, a society in a perpetual state of Thirdworldization.

Little over a year ago, Fabian wrote the following passage about how to face an uncertain future with confidence. It’s a lesson which applies in all seasons:

It will be hard. And you’ll be okay.

Don’t tell me it sucks to deal with uncertainty, rising crime, violence, inflation, loss of freedoms, and widespread injustice. I’ve lived my whole life around all that, and I know. I’m still here to tell you, yes, it’s hard, but you’ll be OK.

If my theory about Thirdworldization is correct, the world isn’t going to end, but things will be unstable and volatile everywhere for some time. The end of an era is always turbulent, and that turbulence can last for decades.

Life won’t be the same without the consumption or long-term planning typical of the last twenty-something years. But so what. It can still be happy and enjoyable all the same.

I’m grateful for still being able to go to work, purchase food at the grocery store, visit friends and family, and hit the wilderness every once in a while. I’ll keep doing all that and more while it’s possible. And if it doesn’t, well, then I’ll see about it.

I realize this seems irrelevant given that Fabian is speaking of a more gradual decline, whereas I’ve described a steeper, more violent one. I still think the same attitude applies. Like I said earlier, we can’t prepare for it all crashing down, not really. Moreover, mindset is just as crucial as physical preps. Avoiding demoralization is the most critical aspect of enduring what’s coming.

So heed the wisdom imparted by Ommar Fabian, Selco Begovic, who survived the Bosnian War of the 1990s, and others who’ve lived through SHTF, WROL (Without Rule Of Law), and everything other catastrophe imaginable. Study what life is like in Brazil and France. These countries aren’t perfect analogues, but they do provide hints as to what life will increasingly resemble here in the U.S. The world changes; we must adapt to the changes. Take the experiences of people like Fabian as proof that yes, you too can adapt, overcome, and do it all over again, if needed. None of us are entitled to the good life.

Above all, remember who we are - Americans. We are a people who settled wild, uncharted territory, spilled our own blood into that dirt we stand upon to create a civilization which was, until now, the envy of the world. Perhaps it’s that very envy which is driving such relentless efforts to undo everything our ancestors have created. Whatever the case may be, even when they’ve taken our freedom, the one thing they can never take away from us is who we are. As long as we don’t surrender to despair, as so many of our fellow countrymen already have, our will to survive will never be broken.

So prepare and stay aware, but also find joy in your life wherever it can be found. Don’t isolate yourself from the world; make family and friends a focal point of your life. Get out there and make some new friends. Maybe even start a family of your own. Don’t be afraid to tell everyone who we really are; don’t let our enemies say so. Exercise that freedom of speech while we still have it in spades. Most of all, be the light which shines most brightly in the darkness. Be that rock for others to lean on. When everyone else isn’t sure what comes next, be the one who says, “Just follow me.”

Go Forth, Meet 2024 Head-On

I sincerely hope you all have enjoyed The Next 12 Months. It took a lot of time and work to complete; I’m looking forward to returning to my usual routine of writing on current events from a prepper’s perspective. Still, it’s nice to go out on a limb once in a while and show you a bit more depth to my thinking.

The floor is now yours. What do you think about the presented timeline and scenario? What do you think the outcome will be? What do you think America will look like in five to ten years? Do you think I went off the deep end here?

I eagerly anticipate your reactions in the comments section.

Max Remington writes about armed conflict and prepping. Follow him on Twitter at @AgentMax90.

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