This was an excellent series. I share your concerns and broadly agree with your assessment. Broadly speaking, I anticipate we will revert to a far more localized life. The “civil war” will be pretty low intensity, in part because it will be difficult to get the partisans to meet in battle. The broad division, I would argue, is rural versus urban. The rural partisans wont attack the cities because they won’t have to. The urban partisans would find it very difficult to track down and engage the rural partisans. And, should they attempt it, I expect they’d find the outcome undesirable. Thanks for the effort you put into this. I look forward to following you work moving forward.
I've followed blogs like this since 08', and no one has a longer track record for poor prediction than the "guns and gold" crowd. On the surface, this all purports to be a Cassandra-like, analytical endeavour, but let's be honest - this is all destruction fantasy. The central animating impulse in American culture for quite some time - literature, film, tv, you name it - is "destruction", and especially self destruction. One sees it on the left and the right. It's very bipartisan. If a critical mass signs up, then maybe you'll get your apocalypse. But what if the destruction never shows up? You might actually have to you know, actually try and fix stuff lol.
"At the same time, I’m perfectly aware none of this could happen as I’ve described. Four years from now, we might still be predicting civil war in the next five to ten years. It wouldn’t be the first time someone like me has predicted the end, only to be off the mark. The thought to mind a question I’m certain many of us have asked ourselves more than once: I’m not sure what’s more worrisome - the thought that this could all lead to some kind of blow-up, or that it never will."
I happen to live in DC and this couldn't be further from the truth. Just look at real estate. No one is leaving, deserting at all. The exact opposite is happening.
Eh, the reality is that most people in the country are dead people walking, but they just don’t know it yet. There is no possible way that wages are going to catch back up to inflation, for the simple reason that America itself is running out of runway. Both America and Rome are similar in that each managed to exploit conditions that gave them a huge advantage over prior civilizations. Rome was able to exploit neighbors who could not match Rome’s military and political organization, and were basically able to plunder the “known world” at the time of treasure and slaves. America had the good fortune to be founded on a continent populated with primitive natives who sat on top of massive and unexploited natural resources. In addition, America was not burdened by the sclerotic social order that plagued Europe for so long. Any person here with a pulse could get rich.
Now, our society and economy is built on the assumption that conditions will continue to allow unlimited growth. Simple reality says that this is not possible. Growth, such as it is these days, comes from increasingly niche efforts and cannibalization of prior enterprises, not from any real generation of true wealth. The mistake that is made too often is thinking that technology drives growth, while the reality is that it facilitates efficiency.
Plus, there is also the really inconvenient factor of climate change. Too many on the right have been suckered by spokesman who were in the pocket of corporations. There is nothing inherently left or right about the issue, just a reality. Failed crops and climate upheavals are going to make things like food prices go even higher.
Thing is, if there is a civil war, it is going to be the mask that chaos will wear. People might put on blue armbands or red armbands, design a new flag, but the reality is that it is going to be the people with the most guns and organization fending for themselves and their families, not any abstract guiding principles. If people don’t figure out how to work with others, they will starve. When Rome fell, most people still were part of large agricultural networks. Now, farming has become like factories. Good luck replacing that with a garden in the backyard.
Last, political enthusiasm is down, simply because everyone knows there is no fixing all this. Trump or Biden isn’t going to make a damn bit of difference when food prices have doubled in the last three years, and will likely do the same in another three years. I like Trump, in spite of all his missteps lately, but he can’t rewind reality. Biden is too busy sucking up to tech giants and the power elite to ever try to fix anything. When the election doesn’t change any of this, look for people to get a lot angrier and more desperate.
This was an excellent series. I share your concerns and broadly agree with your assessment. Broadly speaking, I anticipate we will revert to a far more localized life. The “civil war” will be pretty low intensity, in part because it will be difficult to get the partisans to meet in battle. The broad division, I would argue, is rural versus urban. The rural partisans wont attack the cities because they won’t have to. The urban partisans would find it very difficult to track down and engage the rural partisans. And, should they attempt it, I expect they’d find the outcome undesirable. Thanks for the effort you put into this. I look forward to following you work moving forward.
I've followed blogs like this since 08', and no one has a longer track record for poor prediction than the "guns and gold" crowd. On the surface, this all purports to be a Cassandra-like, analytical endeavour, but let's be honest - this is all destruction fantasy. The central animating impulse in American culture for quite some time - literature, film, tv, you name it - is "destruction", and especially self destruction. One sees it on the left and the right. It's very bipartisan. If a critical mass signs up, then maybe you'll get your apocalypse. But what if the destruction never shows up? You might actually have to you know, actually try and fix stuff lol.
From the essay:
"At the same time, I’m perfectly aware none of this could happen as I’ve described. Four years from now, we might still be predicting civil war in the next five to ten years. It wouldn’t be the first time someone like me has predicted the end, only to be off the mark. The thought to mind a question I’m certain many of us have asked ourselves more than once: I’m not sure what’s more worrisome - the thought that this could all lead to some kind of blow-up, or that it never will."
If Civil War doesn’t break out in this election cycle, the next 11 months, it’s not happening .
DC is quietly imploding, worse the DC talent has been deserting.
DC is ending. The next 12 months are peace or war, peace is improbable as the DC New Deal System is collapsing without any replacement in sight.
I happen to live in DC and this couldn't be further from the truth. Just look at real estate. No one is leaving, deserting at all. The exact opposite is happening.
That’s not what I saw, or hear, or know…
But not to worry!
Blue skies!
Forward!
If it doesn't happen this round, it'll definitely be put off for four years or more.
I have yet to see a redneck or soldier with red sunglasses.
I’m getting triggered…
Lol
Eh, the reality is that most people in the country are dead people walking, but they just don’t know it yet. There is no possible way that wages are going to catch back up to inflation, for the simple reason that America itself is running out of runway. Both America and Rome are similar in that each managed to exploit conditions that gave them a huge advantage over prior civilizations. Rome was able to exploit neighbors who could not match Rome’s military and political organization, and were basically able to plunder the “known world” at the time of treasure and slaves. America had the good fortune to be founded on a continent populated with primitive natives who sat on top of massive and unexploited natural resources. In addition, America was not burdened by the sclerotic social order that plagued Europe for so long. Any person here with a pulse could get rich.
Now, our society and economy is built on the assumption that conditions will continue to allow unlimited growth. Simple reality says that this is not possible. Growth, such as it is these days, comes from increasingly niche efforts and cannibalization of prior enterprises, not from any real generation of true wealth. The mistake that is made too often is thinking that technology drives growth, while the reality is that it facilitates efficiency.
Plus, there is also the really inconvenient factor of climate change. Too many on the right have been suckered by spokesman who were in the pocket of corporations. There is nothing inherently left or right about the issue, just a reality. Failed crops and climate upheavals are going to make things like food prices go even higher.
Thing is, if there is a civil war, it is going to be the mask that chaos will wear. People might put on blue armbands or red armbands, design a new flag, but the reality is that it is going to be the people with the most guns and organization fending for themselves and their families, not any abstract guiding principles. If people don’t figure out how to work with others, they will starve. When Rome fell, most people still were part of large agricultural networks. Now, farming has become like factories. Good luck replacing that with a garden in the backyard.
Last, political enthusiasm is down, simply because everyone knows there is no fixing all this. Trump or Biden isn’t going to make a damn bit of difference when food prices have doubled in the last three years, and will likely do the same in another three years. I like Trump, in spite of all his missteps lately, but he can’t rewind reality. Biden is too busy sucking up to tech giants and the power elite to ever try to fix anything. When the election doesn’t change any of this, look for people to get a lot angrier and more desperate.