The lone wolf theory doesn't really hold for me. These are coordinated efforts, through social media, and often funded by deep pocketed globalists whose interests are not aligned with any normies. I'm expecting martial law within 18 months.
Regarding your point on leftist violence, I would point to Peter Turchin on elite overproduction. Basically a lot of young leftists think they deserve to live off grants, grad school stipends, NGO jobs, etc.
If we as a society cut the funding because we want to spend on defence and boomer diapers, they’re out on the streets looking for trouble. Now is not a great time to be looking for entry level work and I don’t think they’re joining the military. And even service jobs have been given to migrants. So I agree it could ramp up wherever the purse strings are drawn up.
Eugyppius noted today on Twitter that in Germany when the CDU made noise about working with the AFD, the violence and intimidation immediately began and spooked the boomers. So there is also an organized threat, as well.
Even when they were living off grants, grad school stipends, and NGO jobs, they were still threatening violence. It's just a part of the leftist repertoire. I don't think the Left will be as effective at waging war this time around, but they're going to try and that's the problem.
Yes but we shouldn't be too essentialist. Individual Leftists are people responding to incentives, we can't believe that the number of "natural Leftists" is so much greater than it was 100 years ago. Arguably many of these Leftists would in more normal times be natural conservatives because they are just following the dictates of existing authority. Many of the soccer moms with "we believe" signs in their yard would put up swastikas there just as readily if the social incentives were to somehow flip.
And let us hope that day happens as soon as possible because say what you will about German National Socialism, at least it's a civilizational vision.
So far this is shaping up to be a pretty crummy year. The best case scenario for the Trump years would have been an attempt at Western revival and change of heart for the mainstream. But I think they’ve ruined it with their insult comic and tariffs act, basically undermining the populist right everywhere.
What I see right now is a lot of doubling down on bad policies. Europe wanting to send troops to Ukraine, Germany writing net zero into their constitution, Canada lurching back to the Liberals somewhat (Carney the grey old version of Trudeau). Of course it will fail but that will occupy them for a while.
Interesting that we now have the big crackdown on pr-Palestinian protesters in the US. Could be Trump trying to tie up the Ukraine file and batten down the homeland prior to a big Mid East war: ethnically cleanse Gaza, bomb Iran, etc. Strong odds for a recession.
I also see this as a year of growing ill will and pointing fingers. Not enough funds for everything: medical care for boomers, funds for migrants, make-work jobs for NGOs, etc. I still think we’re only around a 5/10 on the pain index so I wouldn’t say the hour is near for anything dramatic.
2025 was going to be a turning point, watershed year. Now that Trump appears to be rattling sabers with Iran again, we're looking at a foreign policy crisis likely to take the air completely out of the superpower balloon. Then you have looming constitutional crisis at home. We can't rule out military involvement, either. The Regime may decide that it has to pull out all the stops to stop Trump.
2025 isn't the year it hits the fan. But it's definitely the year the Fourth Turning enters the final phase.
I keep thinking about an American version of the Troubles
The lone wolf theory doesn't really hold for me. These are coordinated efforts, through social media, and often funded by deep pocketed globalists whose interests are not aligned with any normies. I'm expecting martial law within 18 months.
Regarding your point on leftist violence, I would point to Peter Turchin on elite overproduction. Basically a lot of young leftists think they deserve to live off grants, grad school stipends, NGO jobs, etc.
If we as a society cut the funding because we want to spend on defence and boomer diapers, they’re out on the streets looking for trouble. Now is not a great time to be looking for entry level work and I don’t think they’re joining the military. And even service jobs have been given to migrants. So I agree it could ramp up wherever the purse strings are drawn up.
Eugyppius noted today on Twitter that in Germany when the CDU made noise about working with the AFD, the violence and intimidation immediately began and spooked the boomers. So there is also an organized threat, as well.
Even when they were living off grants, grad school stipends, and NGO jobs, they were still threatening violence. It's just a part of the leftist repertoire. I don't think the Left will be as effective at waging war this time around, but they're going to try and that's the problem.
Yes but we shouldn't be too essentialist. Individual Leftists are people responding to incentives, we can't believe that the number of "natural Leftists" is so much greater than it was 100 years ago. Arguably many of these Leftists would in more normal times be natural conservatives because they are just following the dictates of existing authority. Many of the soccer moms with "we believe" signs in their yard would put up swastikas there just as readily if the social incentives were to somehow flip.
And let us hope that day happens as soon as possible because say what you will about German National Socialism, at least it's a civilizational vision.
So far this is shaping up to be a pretty crummy year. The best case scenario for the Trump years would have been an attempt at Western revival and change of heart for the mainstream. But I think they’ve ruined it with their insult comic and tariffs act, basically undermining the populist right everywhere.
What I see right now is a lot of doubling down on bad policies. Europe wanting to send troops to Ukraine, Germany writing net zero into their constitution, Canada lurching back to the Liberals somewhat (Carney the grey old version of Trudeau). Of course it will fail but that will occupy them for a while.
Interesting that we now have the big crackdown on pr-Palestinian protesters in the US. Could be Trump trying to tie up the Ukraine file and batten down the homeland prior to a big Mid East war: ethnically cleanse Gaza, bomb Iran, etc. Strong odds for a recession.
I also see this as a year of growing ill will and pointing fingers. Not enough funds for everything: medical care for boomers, funds for migrants, make-work jobs for NGOs, etc. I still think we’re only around a 5/10 on the pain index so I wouldn’t say the hour is near for anything dramatic.
2025 was going to be a turning point, watershed year. Now that Trump appears to be rattling sabers with Iran again, we're looking at a foreign policy crisis likely to take the air completely out of the superpower balloon. Then you have looming constitutional crisis at home. We can't rule out military involvement, either. The Regime may decide that it has to pull out all the stops to stop Trump.
2025 isn't the year it hits the fan. But it's definitely the year the Fourth Turning enters the final phase.