Where There's Smoke, There's Fire

At some point, you merely conclude: the purpose of a system is what it does.

There’s a lot of this going on in Aurora, CO, despite official protestations that it’s all just “hysteria.” Source

Being a Super Secret Agent is tough work. Sometimes, it requires me to go on overseas assignments (a.k.a. “vacations”). I’ll be going on such an assignment at the end of this week, so expect a full week, maybe up to two, of communications blackout. Hopefully, the world remains quiet so I can enjoy… I mean, get the job done without distraction, but ‘tis the season for happenings, isn’t it?

So let’s get to it.

When It Comes To Illegal Immigrants, The System Finds A Way To Fail

Colorado sure seems like a hotbed for illegal immigrant crime these days. Last week, a man was sentenced after causing an accident while driving a commercial truck which killed one and injured three others.

The problem? As he was convicted on only misdemeanor charges, the total punishment amounted to just one year in jail.

From The Denver Gazette:

The man responsible for a deadly accident on U.S. 285 that injured three and and took the life of 64-year-old Scott Miller will spend just under a year behind bars.

The short sentence has outraged the family of the victims.

After pleading guilty in July to misdemeanor charges of careless driving—one count resulting in death and three counts resulting in injury, Ignacio Cruz-Mendoza, 47, was sentenced Friday in Jefferson County Court to 364 days in jail and will receive 81 days credit for time already served.

His guilty plea, entered during his arraignment, blocked prosecutors from filing additional charges later as more evidence became available. 

Although Cruz-Mendoza received the maximum sentence permissible for the charges he faced, family members are furious at the system and the Jefferson County District Attorney.

Citing case law, County Judge Kristan Wheeler said although the defendant pleaded guilty to four counts of careless driving, Cruz-Mendoza must serve those sentences concurrently and not consecutively.

There’s a reason there’s no justice in the legal system: it runs on its own internal logic. I don’t think there’s cause to believe Cruz-Mendoza received such a light sentence because he was an illegal immigrant. Instead, it seems, in accordance with legal precedent, he couldn’t receive a greater sentence for the charges received, especially since he pleaded guilty to them.

Which means the problem lies with the charges themselves. When looking at the totality of circumstances, you have to wonder how on Earth Cruz-Mendoza wasn’t charged with felonies.

From NBC 9News:

After the DA’s office in Jefferson County charged the driver with a misdemeanor, Cruz-Mendoza surprised them and pleaded guilty in his arraignment, which prevented prosecutors from filing more charges as they got more evidence from crash investigators.

9NEWS legal analyst Scott Robinson said double jeopardy prevents any more charges from being added after the guilty plea.

“At the time they filed the charges, all they had was probable cause on a misdemeanor charge of careless driving resulting in death,” Robinson said. “What the prosecution didn’t anticipate is that the defense would rush forward and plead guilty. There’s no question that the decision to just file the misdemeanor charges is coming back to haunt the prosecution, at least to a certain degree.”

Generally speaking, even deaths caused by negligent, irresponsible drivers merit only a misdemeanor charge in most states. However, as explained in the NBC 9News write-up, other commercial truck drivers in the past have been handed much harsher sentences than Cruz-Mendoza:

Earlier this year, a truck driver in Weld County was sentenced to 16 years for a deadly crash on Interstate 25. A couple of years back, the same district attorney's office in Jefferson County prosecuted the truck driver who killed four people on Interstate 70. He got a 110-year sentence before the governor stepped in to reduce it.

It may be that Cruz-Mendoza didn’t kill or injure enough peope to qualify for a felony, grotesque as that sounds. But again, consider the totality of circumstances.

From FOX 31:

At the Jefferson County Courthouse on Friday, the state focused on just that, as well as Cruz-Mendoza’s criminal history of reckless driving. He’s also been ordered to return to Mexico 16 times and has a criminal history with drugs, stating to police shortly after the crash that he drinks frequently and uses meth occasionally.

The state also went into great detail about the negligence shown by Cruz-Mendoza before he got behind the wheel that fatal day, saying he didn’t have a proper commercial driver’s license, didn’t keep a log of his driving hours and did not submit to drug and alcohol testing, as well as other issues with the truck like its brake system, its cargo not being secured and having not been inspected since 2022. They also had photos and gave great details of the crash.

Well. He sure sounds like a model citizen, doesn’t he? Keep in mind - these are exactly who Joe Biden and Kamala Harris-types are talking about when they say migrants, the illegals included, are exemplars of what it means to be American.

When looking at the whole picture, I don’t understand how this doesn’t rise to the lewvel of a felony. If this is how the law is supposed to work, fine, but that only confirms the reality of anarcho-tyranny. Apparently, you can be deported 16 times, have an extensive criminal record, and break every rule imaginable, get someone killed, and the most you’ll receive is a year in jail. It doesn’t make any sense. The message being sent with misdemeanor charges is “You made a terrible mistake, but you can be corrected.”

Tell me: do you think someone with the history of Cruz-Mendoza can be corrected? Why is someone who was deported 16 times and did everything wrong going to get another chance in a year?

Keep in mind: there’s currently a “manhunt” underway for whoever posted racially-charged signs in downtown Denver. I shouldn’t surprise me, but perhaps the absurdity of it all is why I never cease to be amazed at what crimes the Regime considers worth going all-out over. Not the illegal immigrant with drug and alcohol problems driving a truck without a commercial license and killing people, apparently. That’s just the cost of having a diverse society open to any and all.

What sort of punishment can we expect for someone who posted racist signs? Since law is about precedent, consider that a man was given 16 years for burning a “Pride” flag back in 2019. Granted, the suspect in this incident was a habitual offender with a long criminal past. But so was Ignacio Cruz-Mendoza. Not only that, Cruz-Mendoza killed and injured people. Even if the burning of the Pride flag took place in a different state, the disparity in treatment between the two is so glaring, it cannot be attributed merely to jurisdictional differences. 16 years for crimes that resulted in no lives lost versus one year for a crime that resulted in loss of life? The existence of a multi-tiered system is difficult to deny at this point.

I’m not sure there’s anything more to say about this. It speaks for itself and I’m way past the point of trying to rationalize decisions made in court. No matter how many times it gets explained, it’ll never, ever, make sense. At some point, you merely conclude: the purpose of a system is what it does.

Aurora: Fake News? Or Ongoing Cover-Up?

As I explained in my last post, there’s been a concerted effort by authorities, along with their ostensible allies in the media, to re-shape the narrative of what’s been happening in Aurora, Colorado. Recently, residents of the apartments at the center of attention have come forth, claiming that there’s no gang takeover of the complex and that real problem is property ownership for failing to take care of the buildings and its tenants.

Source

But hold on: are things what they seem? Reporter Savannah Hernandez, who’s on the ground in Aurora, claims to have evidence that this protest is, in fact, funded by those who’ve been trying to downplay the situation:

Source

Hernandez also noted that many of these protesters aren’t even tenants, but members of activist groups, raising the question: why are the government and leftist activists working together to make everyone believe nothing out of the ordinary is happening in Aurora? What’s really going on? Who can we trust?

Independent investigative journalist Tyler Oliveira (he has an engrossing YouTube channel) went to Aurora to see what was really going on, visiting the apartment complex in question, which appears to be different from the 1568 Nome St. property I highlighted in my last post:

Source

What he found was very interesting, enough to piece together what’s really going on, at least from my perspective. Watch the video and draw your own conclusions, but for those of you who have better things to do, I’ll summarize the key points:

• The apartment complex isn’t controlled by gangs. But nobody wants to say more, either. Most of the interviewees living at the complex were fairly adamant in saying gangs weren’t controlling any of the buildings. However, many of them openly stated they didn’t want to say more out of fear for their safety. This is rather suspicious, suggesting an ever-present threat of violence among occupants or those who frequent the property. It’s definitely not something you encounter at a peaceful residence.

• The apartment complex is comprised almost entirely of Venezuelans. How that happened, it’s not clear. They seem to be of varying legal status, some here lawfully, others maybe not. A common refrain among them is that they go to work, come home, and mind their own business, suggesting everyone keeps their heads down or otherwise try not to draw attention or be caught out in the open. One look at the state of the complex and you understand why.

• The apartment complex is in terrible shape. It lends credence to what many claim to be the real issue: the unkempt, poorly-maintained state of the buildings and units. No doubt this is a problem and it falls on ownership for failing to take care of their tenants. As far back as 2021, the complex was in the news for the poor condition it was in. It’s worth noting, however, that it’s residences like these that tend to draw the poor and unsavory elements.

• The neighborhood where the apartment complex is located is dangerous. Almost nobody Oliveira interviewed was in denial about this fact. All reported gunshots and frequent police response. There are bullet holes visible, lots of broken glass across the property. Many residents say gangs are active in the area. Even if TdA isn’t operating in the area, this section of Aurora, at least, isn’t anywhere near as safe as some have been trying to make it out to be.

• Those living in the surrounding area seem more aware that there are things going on inside the complex. Sometimes, it seems being on the outside looking in provides a better perspective. Since most of the residents of the apartment buildings, by their own admission, primarily stay indoors and mind their own business, this means they can be oblivious to what’s going on right outside their doors and windows. Meanwhile, those living around the complex can see what’s going from a safer distance.

• Nobody doubts the veracity of the viral video showing the rifle-toting gangsters inside the complex. The most people will say is that they don’t know what’s going on. But not a single person interviewed said it didn’t happen. The worst that was said was that it wasn’t a big deal. Neither authorities nor anyone in the media has disputed the video’s authenticity, either.

On that last point, plenty of reading between the lines is required. The fact that even those who insist absolutely nothing bad is happening in the apartment complex don’t deny the video’s veracity is telling. Though many of the residents claim the situation is hardly out of control, they also don’t dispute there could be criminal or gang activity going on there, either, even if they don’t directly implicate Tren de Aragua (TdA).

It’s also worth remembering: these people are from Venezuela. At the risk of stereotyping, for many of them, criminals and gangs operating freely in an apartment complex might be as normal as it gets. Thus, it’s really not a big deal, as long as it doesn’t affect them directly. We all need to remember that most people of the world don’t live with First World expectations of life. To them, as long as the criminals leave them alone, they can live right alongside them without much of a care.

So what’s really going on? My conclusion remains mostly unchanged from before, though I feel more confident saying that TdA, nor any gang, isn’t controlling the apartment complex in question. However, I don’t think it means a whole lot. If the video proves anything, it’s that heavily-armed men are in fact coming and going from the apartments. Whether they literally control it or not is irrelevant. If you lived in an apartment and armed men who weren’t the police were marching through the buildings, would you feel comfortable living there?

The fact that almost nobody denied the neighborhood was a dangerous place tells me it’s also exactly the type of place a group like TdA would attempt to establish a foothold. One of the neighbors living in the surrounding area Oliveira interviewed stated places like the Denver area attract migrants because it’s so far removed from the border. Either way, this section of Aurora isn’t safe, there’s plenty of criminal activity, there’s lots of Venezuelans, not all of whom may be present lawfully, and where there’s smoke, there’s often fire.

But wait - there’s more! A lot more, in fact.

A law firm’s investigation of a different apartment complex supports the conclusion that TdA is, in fact, controlling property in Aurora. Once more, consider this news in the context of authorities, with outside help, trying to tell the country that there are no gang takeovers occurring, that it’s all just far-right propaganda.

From CBS News Colorado:

A Denver law firm, hired to look into an alleged gang takeover of an Aurora apartment building, says they found the Venezuelan TDA gang began taking over the Whispering Pines Apartments in late 2023. Since then, the gang has engaged in violent assaults, threats of murder, extortion, strongarm tactics, and child prostitution as they have exerted a “stranglehold” on the Aurora apartment complex. That’s according to a letter sent to Aurora Mayor Mike Coffman, Aurora City Manager Jason Batchelor, and the interim police chief that was obtained by CBS News Colorado.

…

“The evidence we have reviewed indicates that gang members are engaging in flagrant trespass violations, assaults and battery, human trafficking and sexual abuse of minors, unlawful firearms possession, extortion, and other criminal activities, often targeting vulnerable Venezuelan and other immigrant populations,” wrote T. Markus Funk, a former U.S. Attorney.

The entire news report is worth reading, so please do when you have a chance. I do want to share these paragraphs to give you an idea of what a menace TdA is, that this isn’t something that could possibly be blown out of proportion, if true:

In June, the report says suspected gang members approached the property manager and offered to help the manager “if he agreed to pay the gang 50% of everything the property management company collected in rent.”

The investigators who authored the report called this an “organized crime tactic.” They said gang members then said they were taking over vacant units at Whispering Pines and would start collecting rent from tenants. “This is our business plan,” one gang member told a housekeeper. “If he (property manager) doesn’t like it, we’ll fill him with bullets.”

Following that incident, the report says video footage shows TDA gang members violently breaking into vacant apartments, kicking doors open, and moving Venezuelan immigrants into the empty apartments.

Note: the activity described in the law firm’s report is consistent with what we saw in the video of the rifle-toting gangster paying a visit to Room #301 in the other apartment complex. Is this still just an “isolated” incident? Or does it fit into a broader pattern?

I found this to be the most compelling aspect of the law firm’s findings:

CBS News Colorado also obtained internal Aurora Police documents from June that appear to support some of the law firm’s conclusions.

An officer reported responding to a call from a housecleaner at Whispering Pines. He said she told police she “was threatened that she needed to give up the keys to the vacant apartments at the Whispering Pine Apartments so that a group of Venezuelans could move people into the Whispering Pine Apartments.” The officer reported, “Suspects left but not before warning her to comply or else they would kill her or her family.” The Aurora officer wrote to fellow officers, “I would highly recommend you guys take 2-3 friends with you when responding to any calls there.”

Once more, with feeling: the authorities of Aurora and Denver have been working hard to convince everyone things are being blown out of proportion, that the situation is under control, and nothing too bad is happening. Upon reading the findings of that investigation, why would you still trust the government?

Another investigative report tracked down the man residing in the apartment seen in the viral video and interviewed him. Watch:

Source

I’m not sure what to make of it, honestly. What I’m sure of is it appears in the process of immigrating, they brought Venezuela with them to America. It’s unfortunate, but it’s also exactly what the Regime had in mind, wasn’t it?

“The Survival Of The Country Has To Be At Stake”

Neil Howe, or “Mr. Fourth Turning,” as I like to call him, has been making the rounds in the media lately, which is good to see. The more people know about the Fourth Turning, the better. It ought to at least diminish the stigma associated with predicting the end of an era of American history, which shouldn’t be anywhere near as controversial as it once was.

In a conversation with Tyler O’Neil of The Daily Signal, Howe explained why civil war is very much in the cards for the U.S.:

O’Neil also wrote up a companion piece for the interview. Any conversation with Howe is well worth the listen, but again, I know you’re all busy, so I’m glad O’Neil has provided a summary of it.

Here are Howe’s main points:

He cites Carl Becker, who wrote an essay in 1941, “The Dilemma of Modern Democracy.”

“When most of what you’re talking about is the width of sidewalks and the diameter of sewer pipes, just coordination issues, democracy works really well,” Howe says. “But when you’re talking about issues that virtually define who you are, it doesn’t work. He said no one is going to accede to a vote count that goes 51% against you.”

“You are not going to give up everything you believe in just because you came up three votes short,” he explains.

Howe says U.S. polarization reached similar levels in the 1770s, the 1850s, and the 1930s.

The essence of America’s fracturing is cultural, definitional, and spiritual. These aren’t things that can be resolved through democracy. It’s questionable whether these things can be addressed through any form of governance, totalitarianism included. As Howe suggests, there’s no way to decide whether America’s a good country or a bad country, how many genders there are, or whether people have a right to defend themselves and their property through the ballot box. A properly functioning democracy operates under a lot of assumptions, but nearly all those assumptions have come under fire within the current generation. When you have a country divided by the assumptions it makes of itself, you have a serious problem that cannot be resolved through the ballot box.

Like Howe says in so many words, nobody’s going stop believing children should be allowed to swap genders against their parents’ wishes just because 51% of the population thinks otherwise. If anything, they’ll become even more entrenched in their beliefs.

Howe then explains that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the lack of well-defined geographical divides in no way serves as a buffer against civil war [bold mine]:

When The Daily Signal noted that American polarization doesn’t neatly fall along lines on a map like in the U.S. Civil War, Howe says the presence of blue cities in red states actually makes conflict more likely.

“One misconception people have is that civil wars require geographically separated places,” he notes. “This is not true, and take a look at the Spanish Civil War. That was a brutal, horrible war, and there was very little geographical contiguity about it. … It was like honeycombed. The civil war in China was the same way.”

Even in the U.S. Civil War, there were “civil wars within states,” especially in “border states.”

It makes sense. When you have opposing factions living in close proximity, you have more, not less, opportunity for conflict. America isn’t a sectarian society, so the lines are blurry, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t any lines at all. Like survivors of civil wars will tell you, everyone got along, everyone lived, worked, and enjoyed leisure activities together, until the fighting began. Don’t forget that we see this outside the context of war also. Neighbors get along until a seemingly minor dispute sets off a feud that ends in violence. The closest of friends turn into the worst of enemies after one side does something to offend or violate the other. It happens all the time in our personal lives. Why couldn’t it happen to an entire society?

Howe mentioned two characteristics of the current Fourth Turning which make it different from its predecessors:

First, he notes, “government is so huge going into this fourth turning,” while most fourth turnings require government to ramp up in order to face existential threats.

This is very interesting and not something I’d ever considered. Personally, I think it’s very possible for the government to ramp up even more than it already has. However, in doing so, the Federal Reserve will need to print even more money - far in excess of what’s being printed today - to fund the government and its activities. As always, more money will be spent than is available, necessitating the printing of even more money to keep up. This leads to high inflation. If the dollar loses world reserve currency status during the Fourth Turning, a very real possibility, then not only will the U.S. no longer be able to continue as an import-based economy, but it’ll experience hyperinflation in the process.

But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Otherwise, we’ll only frighten ourselves to death.

More:

Second, he notes “the size and global power of our military” make the U.S. a central player in world affairs, so a U.S. Civil War will have massive ramifications across the globe.

“If it requires our forces around the world to stand down for six months, the entire world will remake itself,” he says. “The entire world, for better or for worse, depends upon our presence to be what it is.”

Howe also notes that during a civil war, one side often asks for external help: “This is a rule through all civil wars.”

I’ve been saying, almost since the start of this Substack, the U.S. will undergo a political crisis in 2025 - next year, if you haven’t noticed - because the superpower is bleeding power rapidly, culminating in a major foreign policy crisis that’ll completely expose it for what it now is: a has-been. This almost overnight shift in perceptions of America will gradually force Washington to focus inward, including when it comes to the military. As Howe says, this means the world order will need to remake itself because the U.S. will become a diminished world player. But this also means, whatever the defining crisis of the Fourth Turning ends up being, the military will play a pivotal role, whether through action or inaction. At some point, the armed forces, the one institution most Americans still trust the most, will have to decide whether to take sides in the coming internal conflict, or it’ll have to choose to stay out of it. Even the latter isn’t reassuring, as it’d likely result in the collapse of the military, in my estimation.

As for one side asking for external help, one could only guess which side it’d be and who’d come to their aid. Conventional wisdom holds the weaker side will ask for help, but it could very well be that it’s the losing side that does so, whether they do or don’t hold the preponderance of strength. It also depends on the extent to which side has cultivated foreign relationships that’d make it possible to invite outside players into the fight. Either way, it’s an unsettling thought that foreign actors will become involved, but it happens during almost all civil wars.

As for when it’s going to start:

“The survival of the country has to be at stake,” the author says.

“With regard to World War II, I think FDR made the case—it was very persuasive for the country—we did not want to be the only democracy left on earth,” he explains.

“This is the way incentives work,” Howe says. “You’ve got to feel everything’s on the line to push you to do something.”

I think it’s fair to say we’re still a good ways off from being at a moment where the literal survival of America is on the line. At the same time, it’s much closer than anyone realizes. Refer back to the title of this Substack: We’re Not At The End, But You Can See It From Here.

Howe and O’Neil talk about much more during the interview. Howe brings up the social changes the Fourth Turning will bring about: a preference for authority, a return to conventional norms and values, and greater community. The implication is that America will become a more conservative society, politically maybe more right-wing. Regardless of the outcome of the Fourth Coming, it seems in one respect, the Right will prevail. Depending on your personal views, that may be good news or bad news.

I think Howe’s most important lesson for all of us is this: the crisis of the Fourth Turning happens because it has to happen. He points out that nobody wants to fix things when life is good and predictable. Perhaps that’s what leads to the hard times and a more unpredictable world in the first place, but that’s exactly why a sense of urgency kicks in and we’re all suddenly willing to fight and die, for better and for worse. It’s all part of a cycle and while the consequences can be dire, good can also come from it. Whatever the case may be, there’s no way to stop what’s coming.

We can only hope we get to see a return to good times while we’re all still here.

Do You Smell Smoke?

One last update before closing it out:

Source

The press release goes onto confirm all four suspects are members of TdA. I guess when controlling the narrative is the highest priority, you focus on frivilous matters, like whether or not a gang is literally in control of an apartment complex, instead of the more important question of whether they’re operating in the area or not. I think we all know the answer to that. Like I said before, when there’s smoke, there’s fire.

Over to you: what are your thoughts on anything discussed? Do you think the sentence received by the illegal immigrant driving a commercial truck without a license is reasonable? What do you think is going on in Aurora? Is it still hysteria? Or is there a real problem? Has Neil Howe convinced you of the Fourth Turning yet?

Enjoy the discussion among yourselves and I’ll talk to you all when I get back.

Max Remington writes about armed conflict and prepping. Follow him on Twitter at @AgentMax90.

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