When I teach economics, I use the roller skating rink analogy for capitalism. No one tells you where to go on a roller skating rink. You choose your own path and lane and speed based on your own ability and those around you. For an adult version of this, think about the Arch De Triumph roundabout in Paris (https://www.youtube.com/embed/FXfGZF2-sUU) which I actually ran across once in my 20's. These systems are complex and decentralized and thus appear utterly chaotic. Note, that doesn't mean there are no rules. But those rules are general and the players are left to figure out the details on their own. A traffic cop standing at an intersection could never deliver the volume that the Paris roundabout does.
Any collapse in the West will be triggered by economic failure; as you said, food, fuel, medicine. Global capitalism is the reason this is unlikely. It is a complex, decentralized system. There are lots of points of failure, but few/no single points of failure. And as long as there's money to be made, people will find a way around failure points. So even though it's more complex, and each single part may be fragile, the overall system is quite resilient.
That said, there is a limit. There are two sci-fi short stories I read with my students: Harrison Bergeron by Vonnegut (to show them the endpoint of wokeness) and The Machine Stops by Forster. The latter is all about a complex and centralized system, which are far more fragile than they appear. An example of that in the real world would be China.
As for crime, I expect you'll see a Bukele-like, big-city mayor (probably a black man elected by other blacks) before 2030. National politics is driven by abstract issues. Local politics (particularly in poor areas) is driven by practical conditions.
Are your students aware that you're the only teacher who teaches them anything? I hope they do.
Interesting point regarding Bukeleism. I, too, think we'll see a figure like him emerge at the local level before we ever see him emerge at a national level. Even Huey Long was a state-level politician.
However, I doubt he'll be a Black man. Black politics in America is too deeply wedded to the Regime, too grievance-oriented. Remember - when Lori Lightfoot was voted out, they voted in an even more radical leftist in Brandon Johnson. There's no bottom, no extent to which things can get so bad that Black voters decide it's time to try something completely new. I hate to be so cynical, I used to not think this way. But in my 30-some years, I've seen no indication whatsoever that Blacks have altered their views on anything. If anything, their pre-existing views seem to have become more entrenched than ever. My future prognosis on Black America is that they'll effectively balkanize themselves; socially, if not geographically. A lot of this will be due to the fact their fate is tied to the prevailing political order. Whatever happens to it will impact them. I suppose some good will come from it, but it also means that we haven't seen the worst of Black America yet.
I think American Bukele will be Latino. However, I also believe it'll be many, many years before he emerges. For one, he'd need a White-Latino political coalition favorable to his leadership and policy platform. I think we can agree that American Bukele will never be a White man.
American Lee Kuan Yew, meanwhile? That's another topic for another time.
Interesting idea that our Bukele will be Latino, and it makes sense. If that's the case, you're right, it's much longer than 2030. I hope your wrong about the urban blacks though, not just for myself but for them.
Just finished my first Lee Kuan Yew book. I didn't know about him at all until last year. Very interesting man.
I've lived and worked among Blacks. I've been employed in jobs where I was the only person who wasn't Black. When you get to know Blacks as living, breathing, humans, you judge them more fairly, but you also judge them more realistically. You don't view them as a "voting bloc" or an "oppressed class." You see them as people who have hopes, dreams, and flaws like everyone else.
You also see that Blacks can still manage to be productive members of society like anyone else, even if they still lag behind in certain respects. I wanted them to thrive, but not only do they pick their representatives poorly, they choose to focus their mental energy on lamenting the fact they need to listen to the White man. It doesn't help that White leftists are encouraging Blacks to continue feeling sorry for themselves.
So I guess my reservoir of sympathy has been expended. I grew up believing everything I was taught about Blacks. Then I got to know them as real people. I respected them more as individuals, but became more disillusioned with them as a group.
About the matter of complex systems being better equipped to resist attack or general, unfocused chaos as a result of their presumed redundancy: N.S. Lyons ( pseudonym ) writes one of the most interesting Substacks there is. Since October 7th, conspiracists have been certain the Hamas attack must have been dependent on clandestine Israeli permission, because Israel's border security had layers of redundancy built into it. Lyons' analysis of the attack, which is not paywalled, shows just what clever devils the Hamas planners were: they figured out ways to flip the Israelis' advantages against them by exploiting those redundancies in ways which were so clever and so simple that reading about how they did it should make a reader shocked to find himself admiring their ingenuity.
I am also discouraged by the sheer idiocy and irresponsibility of today’s leaders. Biden’s speech is a prime example of that. When I was a kid, I thunk it was understood that society had to be kept together and basic respect for political opponents is part of that. You didn’t have government essentially declaring large chunks of society beyond the pale and there was an effort to calm tensions.
There was something similar with Trudeau and the Freedom Convoy. You had certain old school types pointing out in the media that a political leader should be calming tensions and reaching out to the other side in times of unrest, but Trudeau and his cronies had none of it.
We also see completely illogical policies these days, such as being soft on crime and then expecting people to take public transit, or pushing electric vehicle mandates but then restricting electrical generation. I feel that once it was understood that decisions have real consequences but now the political class makes sweeping decisions and then expects someone else to sort it out somehow.
I listened to the same Alex Kaschuta podcast that you listened to. I have to say that it wasn’t my favourite- I found this guest rather affectless and he came across as much older than his state age. I also find the “nothing happening” line boring to listen to, although it is useful to be reminded of all the past catastrophes that didn’t occur. Also salutary to be reminded of the potential for nuclear catastrophe.
My general view is somewhere in between the extremes: the future takes a long time to happen, but it does happen eventually. For example, I recall attending a business meeting around 10-15 years ago where an executive suggested that all the money printing and low interest rates would lead to inflation. He was right, but it took many years to get there.
I would highlight the potential for natural disaster as another wild card. For example, California has massive floods every few hundred years. Earthquakes, volcanoes and asteroid strikes are another possibility. We overestimate the stability of the earth, although within our lifespans the odds may be low.
I am a believer in the competency crisis, based on a number of trends: boomers retiring , aging infrastructure, depressed and mentally ill young people, regulatory overload and the inability to build new infrastructure. We also see governments pushing dubiously qualified foreigners as a replacement for trained workers that didn’t show up. At least in Canada I feel a sense of government barely holding it together.
Full collapse isn’t likely and governments usually manage to keep the utilities on. However, I see it getting harder and harder to depend on government for basic public services like healthcare, education and justice.
"...the future takes a long time to happen, but it does happen eventually."
This is the essence of my message here on this blog. I'm trying to get both camps - the "Doomers" and the "Nothing Ever Happeners" - to be more reasonable in their assessments, even if they ultimately lean decisively in one direction or another. Doomers are correct that, eventually, hard times show up, but not only does it take a long time, you can't really use data to say when it's going to happen. Also, Doomers think it'll all happen during their lifetimes, but there's no rule that says it has to, either.
"Nothing Ever Happeners" can be exasperating, but they are correct in that, for the most part, nothing ever happens. But eventually, something does. Inflation is the perfect example All it took was an accelerant (COVID) and boom, we're off to the races. Then the Doomers are going too far in saying up next is hyperinflation, when in all likelihood, hyperinflation will happen at "the end" when the current social order finally does collapse. Again, nothing says it needs to happen any time soon.
When I teach economics, I use the roller skating rink analogy for capitalism. No one tells you where to go on a roller skating rink. You choose your own path and lane and speed based on your own ability and those around you. For an adult version of this, think about the Arch De Triumph roundabout in Paris (https://www.youtube.com/embed/FXfGZF2-sUU) which I actually ran across once in my 20's. These systems are complex and decentralized and thus appear utterly chaotic. Note, that doesn't mean there are no rules. But those rules are general and the players are left to figure out the details on their own. A traffic cop standing at an intersection could never deliver the volume that the Paris roundabout does.
Any collapse in the West will be triggered by economic failure; as you said, food, fuel, medicine. Global capitalism is the reason this is unlikely. It is a complex, decentralized system. There are lots of points of failure, but few/no single points of failure. And as long as there's money to be made, people will find a way around failure points. So even though it's more complex, and each single part may be fragile, the overall system is quite resilient.
That said, there is a limit. There are two sci-fi short stories I read with my students: Harrison Bergeron by Vonnegut (to show them the endpoint of wokeness) and The Machine Stops by Forster. The latter is all about a complex and centralized system, which are far more fragile than they appear. An example of that in the real world would be China.
As for crime, I expect you'll see a Bukele-like, big-city mayor (probably a black man elected by other blacks) before 2030. National politics is driven by abstract issues. Local politics (particularly in poor areas) is driven by practical conditions.
Are your students aware that you're the only teacher who teaches them anything? I hope they do.
Interesting point regarding Bukeleism. I, too, think we'll see a figure like him emerge at the local level before we ever see him emerge at a national level. Even Huey Long was a state-level politician.
However, I doubt he'll be a Black man. Black politics in America is too deeply wedded to the Regime, too grievance-oriented. Remember - when Lori Lightfoot was voted out, they voted in an even more radical leftist in Brandon Johnson. There's no bottom, no extent to which things can get so bad that Black voters decide it's time to try something completely new. I hate to be so cynical, I used to not think this way. But in my 30-some years, I've seen no indication whatsoever that Blacks have altered their views on anything. If anything, their pre-existing views seem to have become more entrenched than ever. My future prognosis on Black America is that they'll effectively balkanize themselves; socially, if not geographically. A lot of this will be due to the fact their fate is tied to the prevailing political order. Whatever happens to it will impact them. I suppose some good will come from it, but it also means that we haven't seen the worst of Black America yet.
I think American Bukele will be Latino. However, I also believe it'll be many, many years before he emerges. For one, he'd need a White-Latino political coalition favorable to his leadership and policy platform. I think we can agree that American Bukele will never be a White man.
American Lee Kuan Yew, meanwhile? That's another topic for another time.
Interesting idea that our Bukele will be Latino, and it makes sense. If that's the case, you're right, it's much longer than 2030. I hope your wrong about the urban blacks though, not just for myself but for them.
Just finished my first Lee Kuan Yew book. I didn't know about him at all until last year. Very interesting man.
I've lived and worked among Blacks. I've been employed in jobs where I was the only person who wasn't Black. When you get to know Blacks as living, breathing, humans, you judge them more fairly, but you also judge them more realistically. You don't view them as a "voting bloc" or an "oppressed class." You see them as people who have hopes, dreams, and flaws like everyone else.
You also see that Blacks can still manage to be productive members of society like anyone else, even if they still lag behind in certain respects. I wanted them to thrive, but not only do they pick their representatives poorly, they choose to focus their mental energy on lamenting the fact they need to listen to the White man. It doesn't help that White leftists are encouraging Blacks to continue feeling sorry for themselves.
So I guess my reservoir of sympathy has been expended. I grew up believing everything I was taught about Blacks. Then I got to know them as real people. I respected them more as individuals, but became more disillusioned with them as a group.
About the matter of complex systems being better equipped to resist attack or general, unfocused chaos as a result of their presumed redundancy: N.S. Lyons ( pseudonym ) writes one of the most interesting Substacks there is. Since October 7th, conspiracists have been certain the Hamas attack must have been dependent on clandestine Israeli permission, because Israel's border security had layers of redundancy built into it. Lyons' analysis of the attack, which is not paywalled, shows just what clever devils the Hamas planners were: they figured out ways to flip the Israelis' advantages against them by exploiting those redundancies in ways which were so clever and so simple that reading about how they did it should make a reader shocked to find himself admiring their ingenuity.
I am also discouraged by the sheer idiocy and irresponsibility of today’s leaders. Biden’s speech is a prime example of that. When I was a kid, I thunk it was understood that society had to be kept together and basic respect for political opponents is part of that. You didn’t have government essentially declaring large chunks of society beyond the pale and there was an effort to calm tensions.
There was something similar with Trudeau and the Freedom Convoy. You had certain old school types pointing out in the media that a political leader should be calming tensions and reaching out to the other side in times of unrest, but Trudeau and his cronies had none of it.
We also see completely illogical policies these days, such as being soft on crime and then expecting people to take public transit, or pushing electric vehicle mandates but then restricting electrical generation. I feel that once it was understood that decisions have real consequences but now the political class makes sweeping decisions and then expects someone else to sort it out somehow.
I listened to the same Alex Kaschuta podcast that you listened to. I have to say that it wasn’t my favourite- I found this guest rather affectless and he came across as much older than his state age. I also find the “nothing happening” line boring to listen to, although it is useful to be reminded of all the past catastrophes that didn’t occur. Also salutary to be reminded of the potential for nuclear catastrophe.
My general view is somewhere in between the extremes: the future takes a long time to happen, but it does happen eventually. For example, I recall attending a business meeting around 10-15 years ago where an executive suggested that all the money printing and low interest rates would lead to inflation. He was right, but it took many years to get there.
I would highlight the potential for natural disaster as another wild card. For example, California has massive floods every few hundred years. Earthquakes, volcanoes and asteroid strikes are another possibility. We overestimate the stability of the earth, although within our lifespans the odds may be low.
I am a believer in the competency crisis, based on a number of trends: boomers retiring , aging infrastructure, depressed and mentally ill young people, regulatory overload and the inability to build new infrastructure. We also see governments pushing dubiously qualified foreigners as a replacement for trained workers that didn’t show up. At least in Canada I feel a sense of government barely holding it together.
Full collapse isn’t likely and governments usually manage to keep the utilities on. However, I see it getting harder and harder to depend on government for basic public services like healthcare, education and justice.
"...the future takes a long time to happen, but it does happen eventually."
This is the essence of my message here on this blog. I'm trying to get both camps - the "Doomers" and the "Nothing Ever Happeners" - to be more reasonable in their assessments, even if they ultimately lean decisively in one direction or another. Doomers are correct that, eventually, hard times show up, but not only does it take a long time, you can't really use data to say when it's going to happen. Also, Doomers think it'll all happen during their lifetimes, but there's no rule that says it has to, either.
"Nothing Ever Happeners" can be exasperating, but they are correct in that, for the most part, nothing ever happens. But eventually, something does. Inflation is the perfect example All it took was an accelerant (COVID) and boom, we're off to the races. Then the Doomers are going too far in saying up next is hyperinflation, when in all likelihood, hyperinflation will happen at "the end" when the current social order finally does collapse. Again, nothing says it needs to happen any time soon.