No, I don’t expect the world to end, but 12 months from now, we’ll be living in a vastly different country, the same way we’re living in a different country today than we were 12 months ago.
Thank you for the essay and the predictions. Insights on the 4th turning and where we are is interesting. Perhaps we can avoid a painful end of the 4th turning? I realize that goes against the theory.
It feels like Trump's election is a reprieve. He can't save us from what is inevitably going to happen but perhaps his policy and rule can push it off for a little while longer. This may be wishful thinking.
The predictions / trends about finance and recession is a relief. I think many need a bit more time to prepare (as much as we can). The increase of private citizen's debt + the government's debt feels like a horrible storm waiting to happen.
I really hope the predictions are right - that the steam for violence has waned down. We'll see what the year holds.
Paused reading Thomas Cahill's book, "How the Irish Saved Civilization" to read your essay. This sentence (describing the fall of Rome) seems eerily true of our time. Cahill summarizes the different arguments for the fall of Rome. He concludes,"What we can say with confidence is that Rome fell gradually and that Romans for many decades scarcely noticed what was happening." (p14)
Thanks to technology and communication, I think more of us are aware but I wonder how history will view this time period.
An interesting effect of pardons is that they eliminate your 5th Amendment rights. If you refuse to testify, that is contempt of court or obstruction. If you lie, that is perjury. And the crime is committed today (not from 2014-2014) and therefore not covered by the pardon.
Interesting. But since you need to be convicted for a pardon to apply, how does that work out in practice? If you were charged and you plead the 5th, and you were still convicted, does that mean the pardon doesn't apply any longer?
You do not have to wait for a conviction. Pre-pre-emptive pardons have been used before (Ford pardoning Nixon and Carter's draft dodge pardons both come to mind). Quite a few legal minds (much smarter than me) that indicated 5th Amendment rights exist if there is a risk of making yourself liable for prosecution.
So the implication is that Congress and Trump can at least force investigations to occur and if the pardons are accepted, then nobody can refuse to testify or plead the Fifth, since they can't be charged?
It took me a few tries, but I'm beginning to follow now. It seems like this should make the truth easier to unearth.
I'm terrible at predictions, Max. This is because I have zero understanding of economics/finance/business/trade/balances of power/the wealth of nations and everything else that goes into the making of a grown up.
My certainties are four:
1. (a.)Trump will not only not slacken on the immigration matter, I expect him to begin to attack the cartels in Mexico. This will be extremely popular with that part of the population which isn't into drugs and human trafficking, which, judging by the results of the election, seems to still be a majority.
(b.) As for Mexico's view of this, it isn't too late for a Manifest Destiny redux on the southern border, say, about a hundred miles in. Great nations act to protect themselves and their people. Russia warned us for years to quit fucking around with them in Ukraine, and we would not listen.
(c.) I don't believe (b.) will happen. But I've lived most of my life in Houston, was nearly murdered by Latino drug gangs in 1997 for the crime of being white, and it felt so damned good to write it.
Whatever happens, we mustn't be reluctant to whack Mexico across the snout with a stick whenever necessary. I'm sorry that that is true. We should want to help them. I do. But they have no right to dictate policy to us, which they have done by their actions, inactions, and general arrogance.
2. If crime stays at its current rate, Trump will have ample excuse to use what force is at his disposal to attack it. Only one thing could be more popular with the American people, and that is
3. He will go to war against Antifa. These people are this generation's Weather Underground, and I think the public really has had enough of them. They've been hibernating like snakes in season, but we can expect them to come back. When they do, whatever it takes: RICO, if possible; troops/drone attacks when necessary, will be used to smash their evil heads.
4. Trump will negotiate a settlement of the Russia/Ukraine unfortunateness.
Vague hopes: ending the reign of the Ayatollahs; America's turn toward sanity emboldening the self tortured peoples of Western Europe to fight for their nations, peoples, and cultures. Do they have the guts? If the English had the imagination, they'd invite a Regency of Nayib Bukele, world's coolest dictator.
Oh, yes, as they would have said in the South of my boyhood, something extry: the mainstream media will not change, except possibly to become worse. They are so altered by neuroplastic change that they are incapable of flexibility: look at Friday's article in The Guardian about combating America's surging neofascism.
I felt that 2024 was a year where a lot happened, but not much of it really affected me and actually it was a good year personally. It does feel like things are building towards something, but not clear what. So 2025 will be a year of clarification.
Some predictions:
1. Taboo on “far right” in Europe weakens. German CDU rules as minority government with tacit AFD support. French centre right makes deal with Le Pen after she is barred from running for president and joint candidate becomes front runner.
2. 80s style anti-Americanism rises in Canada and Europe. The sentiment will be that we support you everywhere, we’re a lot worse off than you are, and this is how you treat us. European governments start to search out trade deals with Russia for energy and think about local alternatives to US tech firms.
3. I see the demands from Trump for tariffs and taxes as a sign of stress in the system. It’s basically the US government and oligarchy becoming insatiable and expecting US allies to send more profits, taxes and industry to the US. This Besart character seems smart enough to avoid a crisis but it does seem like a stress signal.
4. AI proves a bust and Magnificent Seven stocks fall, dragging down overall market. However, manufacturing and energy firms start to rise as governments direct investment to them.
5. Russia gets significantly more territory in Ukraine but no major cities. Trump uses weapon shipments to try to manipulate talks, but unsuccessfully.
6. Left wing violence rises but police violence also rises. Governments start thinking about using militias and private security to keep violence under control.
2024 was a good year for me, also. The last four years have all been good and gotten better for me, personally. However, I didn't benefit from a single policy implemented by the Biden administration or the Regime.
1. I don't know what's going on in Europe well enough, but my sense is that culture very much still tilts leftward. However, the fact that the "far-right" is ascendant at all is a sign of strong discontent with their respective regimes, so I wouldn't be surprised if you're right.
2. Ironically, '80s-style anti-Americanism was rooted in far-leftism (and some far-rightism), along with a belief the U.S. was using these countries in their beef with the USSR. Today's European anti-Americanism is going to be rooted in the belief the U.S. doesn't do enough for them, even though we've given them the world and given them time and space to attempt their leftist utopias. I think a break with Europe is necessary for the U.S. to move forward.
3. Peter Zeihan, who's never been considered a crank, says that the last 75 years haven't been an American Century, but an American Sacrifice. So the grievance is justifiable.
4. Interesting. I think technology fails more often than people give it credit for. If it doesn't fail technically, it fails commercially. I think VR is a perfect example. It's apples and oranges, but it's still an example of how a really cool idea doesn't catch on for one reason or another. VR made a comeback mid-2010s, but it never replaced playing video games on a screen, either.
5. I'd be shocked if the war lasts another full year. I can't imagine it happening. Demographically, the numbers just don't work out.
6. To your second point, I don't think we're going to see a rise in people joining law enforcement. I think the "Floyd effect" is more or less permanent at this point. Even as Americans realize that society is becoming more disorderly, nobody wants to risk their lives in what's increasingly becoming a war. I think society has to undergo another cataclysm where we fight for our survival or law and order completely breaks down to the point people understand why we have police in the first place. It's not to hassle Black people.
Glad to hear you’re doing well. I won’t speak for the Europeans, but the US did blow up Nordstream after opposing it for years. Furthermore the US also pushed to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, as opposed to leaving it neutral, thereby cutting Europe off from cheap Russian energy and an important market and investment destination. None of that was in European interests and a divorce would benefit Europe.
As for Canada, we did participate extremely in both world wars, Korea, and Afghanistan. Furthermore many Canadians volunteered for Vietnamese and Canada kept troops in Europe throughout the Cold War. So the idea that Canada is a freeloader is unfair.
The demand now is for more military spending, but for what? At least the US gets a global empire and massive power for its spending. You could argue that the military spending makes the US rich. More spending from Canada would simply be money down the drain, basically signing up to be the thankless junior auxiliary with no benefits whatsoever.
After publishing this essay, I discovered Peter Zeihan had created a video explaining why a recession isn't likely to come for the next five to ten years. Yes, you read that right, the next FIVE TO TEN YEARS. It's only about seven minutes long, so make the time and watch it:
The tl;dr is this: demographics! Yes, Millennials, by being the biggest generation in American history (not the same story throughout the rest of the world), have created the biggest cohort of consumers ever. As long as they can continue spending, the likelihood of a recession *ever* happening is low. The U.S. is also currently undergoing re-industrialization; as long as this process continues apace, there shouldn't only be ample room for growth, but there should continue to be plenty of jobs to go around.
Does this mean recessions are a thing of the past? Not exactly. At some point, the Millennials will start aging (unthinkable, I know). In the early 2030s, the oldest Millennials will start turning 50, so while they'll continue to comprise a large share of the workforce, their spending habits will change. Consumer spending will slow; even if Zoomers are able to spend prolifically, there's fewer of them, so they won't be as potent an economic force as Millennials were. America's median age will be well over 40 by this point as well.
Zeihan makes no specific predictions, but he's basically saying that if a recession is in our future, it's likely to be some time in the '30s due to demographic realities. Of course, none of this rules out the unexpected, but again: you can't make judgments based on things that haven't happened. You can, however, make judgments based on trends.
"Don't follow the headlines; follow the trendlines." I can't stress this enough.
Thank you for the essay and the predictions. Insights on the 4th turning and where we are is interesting. Perhaps we can avoid a painful end of the 4th turning? I realize that goes against the theory.
It feels like Trump's election is a reprieve. He can't save us from what is inevitably going to happen but perhaps his policy and rule can push it off for a little while longer. This may be wishful thinking.
The predictions / trends about finance and recession is a relief. I think many need a bit more time to prepare (as much as we can). The increase of private citizen's debt + the government's debt feels like a horrible storm waiting to happen.
I really hope the predictions are right - that the steam for violence has waned down. We'll see what the year holds.
Paused reading Thomas Cahill's book, "How the Irish Saved Civilization" to read your essay. This sentence (describing the fall of Rome) seems eerily true of our time. Cahill summarizes the different arguments for the fall of Rome. He concludes,"What we can say with confidence is that Rome fell gradually and that Romans for many decades scarcely noticed what was happening." (p14)
Thanks to technology and communication, I think more of us are aware but I wonder how history will view this time period.
An interesting effect of pardons is that they eliminate your 5th Amendment rights. If you refuse to testify, that is contempt of court or obstruction. If you lie, that is perjury. And the crime is committed today (not from 2014-2014) and therefore not covered by the pardon.
Interesting. But since you need to be convicted for a pardon to apply, how does that work out in practice? If you were charged and you plead the 5th, and you were still convicted, does that mean the pardon doesn't apply any longer?
You do not have to wait for a conviction. Pre-pre-emptive pardons have been used before (Ford pardoning Nixon and Carter's draft dodge pardons both come to mind). Quite a few legal minds (much smarter than me) that indicated 5th Amendment rights exist if there is a risk of making yourself liable for prosecution.
https://constitutioncenter.org/blog/do-presidential-pardons-remove-the-fifth-amendment-rights-of-recipients
https://www.newsweek.com/biden-pardons-liz-cheney-fauci-fifth-amendment-problem-2017786
I don't know that this has ever been tested, but I suspect it may be in the coming few years.
So the implication is that Congress and Trump can at least force investigations to occur and if the pardons are accepted, then nobody can refuse to testify or plead the Fifth, since they can't be charged?
It took me a few tries, but I'm beginning to follow now. It seems like this should make the truth easier to unearth.
I'm terrible at predictions, Max. This is because I have zero understanding of economics/finance/business/trade/balances of power/the wealth of nations and everything else that goes into the making of a grown up.
My certainties are four:
1. (a.)Trump will not only not slacken on the immigration matter, I expect him to begin to attack the cartels in Mexico. This will be extremely popular with that part of the population which isn't into drugs and human trafficking, which, judging by the results of the election, seems to still be a majority.
(b.) As for Mexico's view of this, it isn't too late for a Manifest Destiny redux on the southern border, say, about a hundred miles in. Great nations act to protect themselves and their people. Russia warned us for years to quit fucking around with them in Ukraine, and we would not listen.
(c.) I don't believe (b.) will happen. But I've lived most of my life in Houston, was nearly murdered by Latino drug gangs in 1997 for the crime of being white, and it felt so damned good to write it.
Whatever happens, we mustn't be reluctant to whack Mexico across the snout with a stick whenever necessary. I'm sorry that that is true. We should want to help them. I do. But they have no right to dictate policy to us, which they have done by their actions, inactions, and general arrogance.
2. If crime stays at its current rate, Trump will have ample excuse to use what force is at his disposal to attack it. Only one thing could be more popular with the American people, and that is
3. He will go to war against Antifa. These people are this generation's Weather Underground, and I think the public really has had enough of them. They've been hibernating like snakes in season, but we can expect them to come back. When they do, whatever it takes: RICO, if possible; troops/drone attacks when necessary, will be used to smash their evil heads.
4. Trump will negotiate a settlement of the Russia/Ukraine unfortunateness.
Vague hopes: ending the reign of the Ayatollahs; America's turn toward sanity emboldening the self tortured peoples of Western Europe to fight for their nations, peoples, and cultures. Do they have the guts? If the English had the imagination, they'd invite a Regency of Nayib Bukele, world's coolest dictator.
Oh, yes, as they would have said in the South of my boyhood, something extry: the mainstream media will not change, except possibly to become worse. They are so altered by neuroplastic change that they are incapable of flexibility: look at Friday's article in The Guardian about combating America's surging neofascism.
I felt that 2024 was a year where a lot happened, but not much of it really affected me and actually it was a good year personally. It does feel like things are building towards something, but not clear what. So 2025 will be a year of clarification.
Some predictions:
1. Taboo on “far right” in Europe weakens. German CDU rules as minority government with tacit AFD support. French centre right makes deal with Le Pen after she is barred from running for president and joint candidate becomes front runner.
2. 80s style anti-Americanism rises in Canada and Europe. The sentiment will be that we support you everywhere, we’re a lot worse off than you are, and this is how you treat us. European governments start to search out trade deals with Russia for energy and think about local alternatives to US tech firms.
3. I see the demands from Trump for tariffs and taxes as a sign of stress in the system. It’s basically the US government and oligarchy becoming insatiable and expecting US allies to send more profits, taxes and industry to the US. This Besart character seems smart enough to avoid a crisis but it does seem like a stress signal.
4. AI proves a bust and Magnificent Seven stocks fall, dragging down overall market. However, manufacturing and energy firms start to rise as governments direct investment to them.
5. Russia gets significantly more territory in Ukraine but no major cities. Trump uses weapon shipments to try to manipulate talks, but unsuccessfully.
6. Left wing violence rises but police violence also rises. Governments start thinking about using militias and private security to keep violence under control.
2024 was a good year for me, also. The last four years have all been good and gotten better for me, personally. However, I didn't benefit from a single policy implemented by the Biden administration or the Regime.
1. I don't know what's going on in Europe well enough, but my sense is that culture very much still tilts leftward. However, the fact that the "far-right" is ascendant at all is a sign of strong discontent with their respective regimes, so I wouldn't be surprised if you're right.
2. Ironically, '80s-style anti-Americanism was rooted in far-leftism (and some far-rightism), along with a belief the U.S. was using these countries in their beef with the USSR. Today's European anti-Americanism is going to be rooted in the belief the U.S. doesn't do enough for them, even though we've given them the world and given them time and space to attempt their leftist utopias. I think a break with Europe is necessary for the U.S. to move forward.
3. Peter Zeihan, who's never been considered a crank, says that the last 75 years haven't been an American Century, but an American Sacrifice. So the grievance is justifiable.
4. Interesting. I think technology fails more often than people give it credit for. If it doesn't fail technically, it fails commercially. I think VR is a perfect example. It's apples and oranges, but it's still an example of how a really cool idea doesn't catch on for one reason or another. VR made a comeback mid-2010s, but it never replaced playing video games on a screen, either.
5. I'd be shocked if the war lasts another full year. I can't imagine it happening. Demographically, the numbers just don't work out.
6. To your second point, I don't think we're going to see a rise in people joining law enforcement. I think the "Floyd effect" is more or less permanent at this point. Even as Americans realize that society is becoming more disorderly, nobody wants to risk their lives in what's increasingly becoming a war. I think society has to undergo another cataclysm where we fight for our survival or law and order completely breaks down to the point people understand why we have police in the first place. It's not to hassle Black people.
Glad to hear you’re doing well. I won’t speak for the Europeans, but the US did blow up Nordstream after opposing it for years. Furthermore the US also pushed to incorporate Ukraine into NATO, as opposed to leaving it neutral, thereby cutting Europe off from cheap Russian energy and an important market and investment destination. None of that was in European interests and a divorce would benefit Europe.
As for Canada, we did participate extremely in both world wars, Korea, and Afghanistan. Furthermore many Canadians volunteered for Vietnamese and Canada kept troops in Europe throughout the Cold War. So the idea that Canada is a freeloader is unfair.
The demand now is for more military spending, but for what? At least the US gets a global empire and massive power for its spending. You could argue that the military spending makes the US rich. More spending from Canada would simply be money down the drain, basically signing up to be the thankless junior auxiliary with no benefits whatsoever.
After publishing this essay, I discovered Peter Zeihan had created a video explaining why a recession isn't likely to come for the next five to ten years. Yes, you read that right, the next FIVE TO TEN YEARS. It's only about seven minutes long, so make the time and watch it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQeYdZUA10c
The tl;dr is this: demographics! Yes, Millennials, by being the biggest generation in American history (not the same story throughout the rest of the world), have created the biggest cohort of consumers ever. As long as they can continue spending, the likelihood of a recession *ever* happening is low. The U.S. is also currently undergoing re-industrialization; as long as this process continues apace, there shouldn't only be ample room for growth, but there should continue to be plenty of jobs to go around.
Does this mean recessions are a thing of the past? Not exactly. At some point, the Millennials will start aging (unthinkable, I know). In the early 2030s, the oldest Millennials will start turning 50, so while they'll continue to comprise a large share of the workforce, their spending habits will change. Consumer spending will slow; even if Zoomers are able to spend prolifically, there's fewer of them, so they won't be as potent an economic force as Millennials were. America's median age will be well over 40 by this point as well.
Zeihan makes no specific predictions, but he's basically saying that if a recession is in our future, it's likely to be some time in the '30s due to demographic realities. Of course, none of this rules out the unexpected, but again: you can't make judgments based on things that haven't happened. You can, however, make judgments based on trends.
"Don't follow the headlines; follow the trendlines." I can't stress this enough.