5 Comments

Great video, Max.

"Earn more than we spend"

"Treat each other well"

Hmmm, I'm pretty sure I've read advice like that before. Some old book... "neither a borrower nor a lender be". And I'm sure some middle-aged, brown dude with long hair said something like "do unto others as you would have them do unto you". Too bad we got too smart for that book and that guy.

There was this white-haired guy in China a few thousand years ago who said something similar too. Perhaps the Chinese still remember him.

Dalio's 5 stability metrics in light of recent events are pretty funny:

1) Other than Germany, the entire G7 is over 100% debt/GDP.

2) Western internal political arguments have become theological. (ends vs means)

3) The world order is fraying as the US retreats (partially caused by #1 & #2)

4) A global pandemic just shut down whole continents.

5) This one is up in the air. Fusion power this decade... a new Matrix-frontier... maybe we kick tthe can another decade.

My training is also in econ as you know, and I concur with Dalio's comments on that subject 100%. However, you're wrong that there's no point preparing for hyperinflation. Diversify outside of dollars. Don't wait until capital controls happen; do it now. Ideally this means an actual foreign bank account (money physically held overseas) which is tough to setup. However, Everbank and Wise both provide easy ways to buy foreign currencies. For ideas where to park some money, perhaps the G20 countries with the lowest debt/GDP might be a good starting point (https://tradingeconomics.com/country-list/government-debt-to-gdp?continent=g20)... maybe a large, Southern hemisphere one with oceans around it. Just a thought.

Finally, one of the things Dalio mentions in the Time article: "voters might eventually be faced with the question, if forced to choose, would you prefer a fascist or a communist?" This is the question of 2028 election aftermath. We're going to end up with a Lenin or a Mao or a Robespierre or a Franco or a Hitler. If I have to pick among those, I know my preference.

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In this essay, I didn't say there was no point in preparing for hyperinflation. I simply said it'd be such a terrible experience that none of us should be so eager for it. I'm also of the belief that even with hedges in place like the ones you mentioned, there's just no way to endure hyperinflation without taking a major financial hit. That said, I may do an essay on how to prepare for hyperinflation, using your guidance as input.

I wish I'd said something about the communist vs. fascist thing. Personally, I think we're stuck with a communist, or the Anglosphere's version of a communist. I doubt it's going to look anything like what we saw in the East, though Latin America's experience with leftist regimes proves it's no less destructive. I think it's reign is going to be relatively short-lived, however. It'll be today's Pink Police State on steroids, but it'll burn out fairly quickly, making the 2032 election just as crucial. That's a little too far into the future, however.

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Biden promised to save oil and union jobs before the last election.

How long did that last?

Coming up on another election and he is lying like a dog to purchase the maximum number of votes.

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The young people of Canada not only cannot afford to buy many can’t even afford rent. Young adults staying with parents is now becoming common. I’ve never seen it so bad and I’m over 70.

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Buy gold!

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