Crime stats are inherently subjective, with one big exception. What counts as armed robbery varies between state, county, and city. If you are a South Chicago drug dealer, do you report getting robbed? Accordingly crime stats are at best a foggy gaze into the reality of life. The one big exception is murder - bodies are bodies and are generally "counted" the same - rural, urban, ghetto, or even Martha's Vineyard. So, I basically ignore all crime stats except murder. Even then, there is the definite feel of something being off in the USA since 2014 or so.
Dec 27, 2023·edited Dec 27, 2023Liked by Max Remington
"The only way this could be is if victims of crime in large numbers decided simply to not report crime when they occur"
I think Asher is blowing this off prematurely, especially by (as you say) using 2019 as his baseline. Perception matters, and the perceptions of police response has changed enormously not just since 2019 but in the last 15 years.
Liberals publicly condemn calling the police as a racist act. 20 years ago, neighbors who saw police at the door of your Chicago condo would ask what was wrong. They may do the same today, but they'll also post photos on Instagram tacitly condemning your Karen-ness. To inoculate themselves from social media shaming, the victims only "report" may be on NextDoor.
(As a side note, I wonder if the use of "Karen" as a baby name has significantly dropped among college educated whites in the last 5 years?)
Meanwhile, conservatives, tending to be more suburban and rural and more attuned to high profile non-prosecutions (whether shoplifters or rioters) have decided en-masse to arm up and opt out. I have to be honest, my DA is pretty good here in CA, but I wouldn't call the cops for property crime. Heck, I probably wouldn't call them even if I shot an intruder, unless he died -- no choice since I don't have a backhoe (yes, I'm kidding, somewhat.) I don't think cops are evil or anything, but I don't trust the regime to take my side against the criminals.
Combine these two, and I think a statistically significant drop in reportage rates over the last decade is not only possible but likely.
The Southwood essay is great. I especially liked this about Japan: "They don’t become nice places because they give away lots of free stuff, they end up giving away free stuff because they’ve cultivated a society where trusting strangers to do the right thing is a reasonable risk." Yes -- exactly. I used to work in Holland and France. Eindhoven and Paris are a 3 hour train ride apart, but a chasm separates them culturally. Paris is vastly larger, more urbanized, multicultural... and far less trusting. Eindhoven women (at least 20 years ago) would leave their bicycles unlocked and walk through any public park after dark. Most Parisians would hesitate to do either. Some of that is endemic in a bigger city, but much is heterogeneous culture and low trust. Tokyo is a very large city, but Japanese women wouldn't hesitate to do either of these.
Which gets to something which ought to concern even progressives: the largest costs of crime (financial and psychological) are borne precisely by those groups considered the most oppressed in the intersectional hierarchy: minorities, the poor, and women.
"Our Party reports that crime has dropped 500%, comrade. Your belief that your store was robbed at gunpoint is simply mistaken. Now, be careful talking about such myths again, or you may be visited by the NKVD."
I really liked what that reader Leonard Sipes had to say: you can't really tell people how they're supposed to feel about something. Honestly, I can't blame Blacks for taking it personally when one of them gets shot by police, because it's true they do get shot disproportionately (though we all know the reason why).
However, that doesn't mean the whole of society needs to take it personally on their behalf, nor do we need to validate their collective narrative of oppression, especially when the narrative is so far removed from reality. Our culture has basically become an exercise in validating the concerns of preferred groups, while we completely dismiss other concerns, such as illegal immigration. It's so very dishonest, but worst, it's all so obvious, yet we could point it out and nothing will be done about it. If anything, the hammer falls on us for daring to be so blunt.
Again, I don't think Jeff Asher is being paid to push a narrative, but again, crime seems to be one of those things where the ruling class believes perceptions need to change.
I really enjoy reading your articles Max
Crime stats are inherently subjective, with one big exception. What counts as armed robbery varies between state, county, and city. If you are a South Chicago drug dealer, do you report getting robbed? Accordingly crime stats are at best a foggy gaze into the reality of life. The one big exception is murder - bodies are bodies and are generally "counted" the same - rural, urban, ghetto, or even Martha's Vineyard. So, I basically ignore all crime stats except murder. Even then, there is the definite feel of something being off in the USA since 2014 or so.
"The only way this could be is if victims of crime in large numbers decided simply to not report crime when they occur"
I think Asher is blowing this off prematurely, especially by (as you say) using 2019 as his baseline. Perception matters, and the perceptions of police response has changed enormously not just since 2019 but in the last 15 years.
Liberals publicly condemn calling the police as a racist act. 20 years ago, neighbors who saw police at the door of your Chicago condo would ask what was wrong. They may do the same today, but they'll also post photos on Instagram tacitly condemning your Karen-ness. To inoculate themselves from social media shaming, the victims only "report" may be on NextDoor.
(As a side note, I wonder if the use of "Karen" as a baby name has significantly dropped among college educated whites in the last 5 years?)
Meanwhile, conservatives, tending to be more suburban and rural and more attuned to high profile non-prosecutions (whether shoplifters or rioters) have decided en-masse to arm up and opt out. I have to be honest, my DA is pretty good here in CA, but I wouldn't call the cops for property crime. Heck, I probably wouldn't call them even if I shot an intruder, unless he died -- no choice since I don't have a backhoe (yes, I'm kidding, somewhat.) I don't think cops are evil or anything, but I don't trust the regime to take my side against the criminals.
Combine these two, and I think a statistically significant drop in reportage rates over the last decade is not only possible but likely.
The Southwood essay is great. I especially liked this about Japan: "They don’t become nice places because they give away lots of free stuff, they end up giving away free stuff because they’ve cultivated a society where trusting strangers to do the right thing is a reasonable risk." Yes -- exactly. I used to work in Holland and France. Eindhoven and Paris are a 3 hour train ride apart, but a chasm separates them culturally. Paris is vastly larger, more urbanized, multicultural... and far less trusting. Eindhoven women (at least 20 years ago) would leave their bicycles unlocked and walk through any public park after dark. Most Parisians would hesitate to do either. Some of that is endemic in a bigger city, but much is heterogeneous culture and low trust. Tokyo is a very large city, but Japanese women wouldn't hesitate to do either of these.
Which gets to something which ought to concern even progressives: the largest costs of crime (financial and psychological) are borne precisely by those groups considered the most oppressed in the intersectional hierarchy: minorities, the poor, and women.
Thanks for replying. Post updated with your remarks and my reaction.
"Our Party reports that crime has dropped 500%, comrade. Your belief that your store was robbed at gunpoint is simply mistaken. Now, be careful talking about such myths again, or you may be visited by the NKVD."
I really liked what that reader Leonard Sipes had to say: you can't really tell people how they're supposed to feel about something. Honestly, I can't blame Blacks for taking it personally when one of them gets shot by police, because it's true they do get shot disproportionately (though we all know the reason why).
However, that doesn't mean the whole of society needs to take it personally on their behalf, nor do we need to validate their collective narrative of oppression, especially when the narrative is so far removed from reality. Our culture has basically become an exercise in validating the concerns of preferred groups, while we completely dismiss other concerns, such as illegal immigration. It's so very dishonest, but worst, it's all so obvious, yet we could point it out and nothing will be done about it. If anything, the hammer falls on us for daring to be so blunt.
Again, I don't think Jeff Asher is being paid to push a narrative, but again, crime seems to be one of those things where the ruling class believes perceptions need to change.